2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[austinEV]

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."

Today I learned the asterisks happen when you don't type the asterisks...

 

[zdriver]

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."

Both.


Sloth flew across the road, but was still a sloth on the other side.

 

[FredTMC]

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."

Elon getting a little pissy with his fans. Ugh

Stressful for everyone

 

[AlMc]

I am starting to think that while I thought Jonas was foolish predicting 2K 2017 model 3 deliveries he is now making me look foolish for thinking 15-20K.

I actually agree with VA that the silver lining for me and other J20 LEAP buyers is that this may be a good thing as I will be shocked (and I , as usual, could be wrong) but I can't help but feeling this will put the brakes on any fast SP rise over the next 6 weeks.

 

[AudubonB]

He also dropped a hint that the "spy shot of the semi" may not have been the semi.

Or did he?

 

[Turing]

 

[SBenson]

Does anyone remember what AJs model 3 projection is for 2018?

Honest question, not rhetorical.

 

[The Blue Owl]

Does anyone remember what AJs model 3 projection is for 2018?

Honest question, not rhetorical.

120,000.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

120,000.

I don't think initial delays necessarily mean they're falling behind on their goals for 2018.

Model X, for example, went through hell for much longer than Model 3 (Elon said late October still possible), but now selling like hot cakes.

 

[Krugerrand]

Wonder what he means by "assume the worst". Is that "get off my back, just use the latest time you are imagining" or "we are really ****ed up over here."

Yes.

 

[D-egg-O]

Playing non stop in Fremont and GF1

 

[MitchJi]

I am starting to think that while I thought Jonas was foolish predicting 2K 2017 model 3 deliveries he is now making me look foolish for thinking 15-20K.

I actually agree with VA that the silver lining for me and other J20 LEAP buyers is that this may be a good thing as I will be shocked (and I , as usual, could be wrong) but I can't help but feeling this will put the brakes on any fast SP rise over the next 6 weeks.

Six to eight weeks is mid November to the beginning of December. That is for the configurator going live. Mid November your 15-20k might be feasible. If they produce 3k per week from mid November that's 18k.

But regardless it looks like the odds of us getting a good entry point to buy J20 just improved !

OTOH If I had a significant number of J18's I'd be looking for a good chance to unload them before the Q3 ER, because it doesn't look like we can count on good news.

Not an advice. I decided to strike out the not an advice because I decided that it's hard to make a mistake being too cautious with expiring options.

 

[D-egg-O]

What are folks' estimates on employees opting for LR + PUP? This might be worst case delivery scenario for 2017.

 

[SPadival]

Elon getting a little pissy with his fans. Ugh

Stressful for everyone

Well the other Fred is pretty good at antagonising people.

 

[TradingInvest]

I am starting to think that while I thought Jonas was foolish predicting 2K 2017 model 3 deliveries he is now making me look foolish for thinking 15-20K.

I actually agree with VA that the silver lining for me and other J20 LEAP buyers is that this may be a good thing as I will be shocked (and I , as usual, could be wrong) but I can't help but feeling this will put the brakes on any fast SP rise over the next 6 weeks.

J20 LEAP will be available mid Nov. Now the Semi unveil is lined up with it. Not good for us who plan to buy the LEAP. I feel TT007 is right regarding the price movement.

 

[Reciprocity]

A little weird. I can' imagine some PR people are really all that necessary for fixing problems on a production line.

Some Bottlenecks could be pack related.

 

[TradingInvest]

120,000.

Next time add a note that it's written by Matthew DeBord, so it can save us a click.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

J20 LEAP will be available mid Nov. Now the Semi unveil is lined up with it. Not good for us who plan to buy the LEAP. I feel TT007 is right regarding the price movement.

Couldn't one buy the J19 and roll over if worried about an SP rise into semi event?

Or even buy the same strike next monthly at fraction of the cost to lock in a purchase price for J20?

 

[TradingInvest]

In late 2016 I was planning to buy 2019 LEAPs, I was so worried if the stock would rally before November. Turned out the stock went to $180 twice in Nov. It was a rare gift for us LEAP buyers and share buyers.

I think at this time anything negative (like production delay) is actually good. Let's load up 2020 LEAPs and then let the party start.

If someone can convince the bears to short more...

 

[ValueAnalyst]

In late 2016 I was planning to buy 2019 LEAPs, I was so worried if the stock would rally before November. Turned out the stock went to $180 twice in Nov. It was a rare gift for us LEAP buyers and share buyers.

I think at this time anything negative (like production delay) is actually good. Let's load up 2020 LEAPs and then let the party start.

If someone can convince the bears to short more...

They need no convincing; bear:bull ratio in Seeking Alpha comments section is about 20:1, and I no longer think even half of those are paid FUDsters. People just blindly believe what a handful of FUDsters put out and keep regurgiating them among each other. It's really odd to watch.

Having said that, I'm a bit concerned about recession chances in 2019, even though it's tough to see that far out. I don't expect a recession in 2018, so I may still go with J19s if SP drops some and just keep the strike price a bit more conservative.