2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[SwTslaGrl]

This article looks like speculation: October 16 Automotive News

 

[vgrinshpun]

I think that is probably correct. Wishful (probably delusional) thinking on my part.

Some people have been(unrealistically IMO) expecting an SP bump from the semi reveal. However if Tesla announced at the reveal, that they were starting production in December that would do it in my opinion.

Another scenario for the bump in SP imo would be announcement of significant backlog backed up by sizable pile of deposits during the reveal event.

 

[Alketi]

Based on the web comment someone dug up the other day about problems with Panasonic at the gigafactory, I wonder if the supplier problem might be Panasonic. If there was a grain of truth to that comment, and a large portion of the problem was that the staff Panasonic had hired was not up to the job, it is conceivable that Tesla has made an agreement to send some of it's own staff to get things up and running. I could imagine the decision being made for the semi team to drop everything, and head to Nevada for a month for an all hands on deck, lets get this line running push. In terms of large numbers of Tesla staff helping suppliers, that seems the most plausible to me since they already have a close relationship, and are in the same building. This would also help to explain the seemingly very slow rollout of power wall, and power packs.

I think one would have to reasonably conclude that Panasonic/Gigafactory is in the mix of problems. In addition to that anonymous post we know that Tesla Energy products are still massively backordered. They used Samsung cells to fulfill a short-term order. And Musk recently visited Sparks after Tesla's press release about Model 3 bottlenecks.

It's interesting to speculate on Tesla's use of "near term" to describe the problem resolution. Musk absolutely never uses this language himself. He always gives a date, which of course end up being incredibly optimistic. I would take "near term" to mean 2-6 weeks. This would also make sense if Tesla has in-sourced some part(s), as the analyst letter indicated.

In all, this probably affects short-term stock price and little else. In my opinion, the only things that matter long-term are the Model 3 being of high-quality and reliability, and of it, and everything else, being able to generate enough profit to cover daily operations. If both of those hold true, then Tesla's story remains intact, they'll continue to be the most exciting company on Earth, and I believe they'll be given access to any and all capital for expansion.

 

[TrendTrader007]

There are a lot of reasons people bet. Yes, some from emotion. But not all. For example, Warren Buffett’s wagers are far from emotional. They’re usually a small fun thing on the side to prove a point, ie, his SP500 vs managed funds bet, or his March madness wager. Usually Buffett wagers on the side of common sense probabilities and to bolster the case of investing for common sense probabilities. The amount he wagers is completely nonconsequential to his net worth.

well I commend you for willing to bet $10k. that speaks for true conviction
personally, I will never bet against you
or Elon
I mean, the probabilities of you winning a $10K bet is hugely in your favor
I would have to be a total idiot to bet against you
I'd rather bet against the shorts which I actually did this morning at the open by buying even more TSLA shares

 

[Intl Professor]

Not an advice.

I used to be a scotch in the winter, gin and tonic in the summer kind of guy. Now it's iced sun tea in the summer and diet root beer in the winter. Así es la vida. To stimulate mental awareness by tuning out the environment I meditate (initially typed, maditate) or wait to see the sly sunrise of a smile on my wife's face as she plays a trick on me for my health. Have any of you type II diabetics tried ice cream with pepper flake sauce?

 

[Off Shore]

Así es la vida.

¡Y peor es nada!

 

[TrendTrader007]

personally it has never bothered me to lose a million or two in the markets
never lost a night's sleep over it
but I know myself
if I lost $10k on a stupid bet with Dave T
I would be up for a whole freakin week!
that would really suck!

 

[MitchJi]

Nomura lays out China track for Tesla (via Seeking Alpha Market News):

I think that if Tesla "sticks " their China factory, and I am extremely confident that they will, that will justify (eventually) an additional $500 for the SP.

 

[Ulmo]

FUD day. The FUD seemed weak, so recovery should be soon.

 

[Ulmo]

I think that if Tesla "sticks " their China factory, and I am extremely confident that they will, that will justify (eventually) an additional $500 for the SP.

China is volatile, and there’s competition in China from their native BYD.

 

[elasalle]

I think one would have to reasonably conclude that Panasonic/Gigafactory is in the mix of problems. In addition to that anonymous post we know that Tesla Energy products are still massively backordered. They used Samsung cells to fulfill a short-term order. And Musk recently visited Sparks after Tesla's press release about Model 3 bottlenecks.

It's interesting to speculate on Tesla's use of "near term" to describe the problem resolution. Musk absolutely never uses this language himself. He always gives a date, which of course end up being incredibly optimistic. I would take "near term" to mean 2-6 weeks. This would also make sense if Tesla has in-sourced some part(s), as the analyst letter indicated.

In all, this probably affects short-term stock price and little else. In my opinion, the only things that matter long-term are the Model 3 being of high-quality and reliability, and of it, and everything else, being able to generate enough profit to cover daily operations. If both of those hold true, then Tesla's story remains intact, they'll continue to be the most exciting company on Earth, and I believe they'll be given access to any and all capital for expansion.

Surely Panasonic operations in GF that began 2Q-3Q last year would support a Fremont M3 production run rate < 100-150 cars/week?

 

[Alketi]

Surely Panasonic operations in GF that began 2Q-3Q last year would support a Fremont M3 production run rate < 100-150 cars/week?

I would hope so. But that doesn't even get you to 1,500 / month. The bottlenecks, where ever they are, are affecting their higher run rate goals. Also, the packs and drivetrains are apparently being assembled in Sparks. So the Gigafactory is involved with more than just cells.

 

[vgrinshpun]

Speaking about the apparent TE production backup, are there any volunteers to be TMC eyes and ears at this Friday's Vermont event that will include TE representative. There is, of course no guarantee of availability of new information, but sometimes a proper chat can reveal very useful information ...

 

[andrewt3000]

Calling out more Chanos bullshit... bottom line: he claims audi traffic jam is better than autopilot... it is not.

Jim Chanos continues to mislead on Tesla – Andrew Thomas – Medium

 

[Krugerrand]

Standard industry practice. I believe that Tesla is better than mouse companies on that.

Is that conclusion based on Elon’s recent mouse nuts comment? I know a lot of mouse companies suck cheese but there is one or two out there that do a pretty good job at mousing since that’s all they do, it’s their only focus whereas Tesla is trying to do multiple industries. It seems logical and reasonable that a mouse company would generally do a pretty good job with its nuts. No?

 

[Ocelot]

Wait, the Internets told me that Tesla was laying everyone off and going out of business.. nice little recovery over the last half hour or so. Maybe some investors actually realized that its common to fire 400-700 people (of 10,000 factory workers) for under performing and the timing with the Model 3 ramp is just a coincidence. Its actually best to do it this way because people who know they are on their way out can do damage (Wrench "accidentally" dropped into the machinery) while waiting for the Turk. I am sure that all position where already being filled as people where walking out, new people where walking in is my best guess.

I hope the 'bulls' on this board are right. I am betting on it (gentleman's bet of course). However, the news of the 'firings' has created some cognitive dissonance for myself. The timing of firing 1 to 2 per cent of your workforce, when things should be growing exponentially is strange to say the least. The fact they they all happened at once, also sits a bit unwell. Maybe someone who has worked as a CEO can pipe in. Is this actually common? I read of layoffs all the time, but 'firings', not so much.

 

[TradingInvest]

Calling out more Chanos bullshit... bottom line: he claims audi traffic jam is better than autopilot... it is not.

Jim Chanos continues to mislead on Tesla – Andrew Thomas – Medium

These fund managers don't have the intelligence level to win the game properly, so they use dirty tricks to manipulate the stock. He has been on my ignore list for a long time. When did Chanos say something that's intelligent? then I would take a second look of his thesis.

Remember he said he shorted BABA when the stock was around $60? He made acquisition that BABA's management is cheating on the books. My point is, he can say/lie whatever without consequence, as long as he uses the words "maybe, probably, very likely......", because it's "free speech". On the other hand, if a company lies on the quarterly reports, they face big trouble. For this reason alone, in most cases it's the hedge fund managers that are lying. They use lies to manipulate the stocks which seems to be allowed.

In some cases, company CEOs do lie, I try not touch those companies no matter how undervalued the company seems to be.

Chanos also shorted CAT a while back. I don't know if he closed or not, CAT more than doubled in less than 2 years.

Why short companies with the most competent management in the world (ie. Elon Musk, Jack Ma)? That's exactly what intelligent investors look for to go long.

Why short companies with wide moat like CAT? Smart investors go long with companies with wide moat.

These shorts are bean counters, they never mention the word "competent management" or "business moat" in their short thesis. That's what get them into trouble.

 

[Lessmog]

Is that conclusion based on Elon’s recent mouse nuts comment? I know a lot of mouse companies suck cheese but there is one or two out there that do a pretty good job at mousing since that’s all they do, it’s their only focus whereas Tesla is trying to do multiple industries. It seems logical and reasonable that a mouse company would generally do a pretty good job with its nuts. No?

Speaking of mouse companies: Håkan Lans, who is often attributed the invention of the mouse (actually, it was a digitizer puck), used to live in my old neighborhood, though I don't think we ever met. He also invented color graphic cards, automatic seat belts and a universal collision avoidance system for aircraft, based on GPS, among other things.

Brilliant inventor and tinkerer, and a generally good man it seems, he spent a fortune and half a lifetime fighting for his patents against BigCorps (TM) instead of continuing to think up clever gadgets. SAD!!

Anyway, it occurs to me that he and Elon would have a lot in common and many things to talk about, and I really think they ought to do that. Seriously.

So sorry to derail the betting thread like this ...

 

[elasalle]

I hope the 'bulls' on this board are right. I am betting on it (gentleman's bet of course). However, the news of the 'firings' has created some cognitive dissonance for myself. The timing of firing 1 to 2 per cent of your workforce, when things should be growing exponentially is strange to say the least. The fact they they all happened at once, also sits a bit unwell. Maybe someone who has worked as a CEO can pipe in. Is this actually common? I read of layoffs all the time, but 'firings', not so much.

Search for Jobs | Tesla
The job board shows at,least 450-500 positions for Fremont itself.
I think Market is reading too much into this firings. (60-70% ) of headlines over weekend and today all about firings.
Time for someone to check on the Hirings

 

[Drax7]

These fund managers don't have the intelligence level to win the game properly, so they use dirty tricks to manipulate the stock. He has been on my ignore list for a long time. When did Chanos say something that's intelligent? then I would take a second look of his thesis.

Remember he said he shorted BABA when the stock was around $60? He made acquisition that BABA's management is cheating on the books. My point is, he can say/lie whatever without consequence, as long as he uses the words "maybe, probably, very likely......", because it's "free speech". On the other hand, if a company lies on the quarterly reports, they face big trouble. For this reason alone, in most cases it's the hedge fund managers that are lying. They use lies to manipulate the stocks which seems to be allowed.

In some cases, company CEOs do lie, I try not touch those companies no matter how undervalued the company seems to be.

Chanos also shorted CAT a while back. I don't know if he closed or not, CAT more than doubled in less than 2 years.

Why short companies with the most competent management in the world (ie. Elon Musk, Jack Ma)? That's exactly what intelligent investors look for to go long.

Why short companies with wide moat like CAT? Smart investors go long with companies with wide moat.

These shorts are bean counters, they never mention the word "competent management" or "business moat" in their short thesis. That's what get them into trouble.

4 or 5 years or so ago Chanos kept predicting the collapse of China , he did that
Repeatedly for at least 2 years. Now he does not mention it any more.

He is mostly a self important Arrogant buffoon