TrendTrader007
Active Member
no kidding!
I an not stand this guy's self righteous holier than thou pompous demeanor
those who listen to this guy and short TSLA will accelerate their own negative wealth reversal in short order
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
- Status
I an not stand this guy's self righteous holier than thou pompous demeanor
those who listen to this guy and short TSLA will accelerate their own negative wealth reversal in short order
FredTMC
Model S VIN #4925
I doubt Panasonic cells are critical path.
Panasonic would've worked extremely hard to make sure 2170 cells were available in volume.
For example, they would've sent tons of workers from Japan if needed.
I think we will learn down the road that it wasn't Panasonic.
Just my intuition and humble opinion.
Maybe he should run for President...
[I didn’t say that]
The short-focused hedge funds have been one of the very worst investment classes of any kind for years. They, not the companies they short, are the ones who burn investors' cash by the fistfuls. Investors are catching on, which is why so many short-focused hedge funds have shuttered their doors in recent years.
I think of all of the babble coming from the short sellers not just as a way to drive down the SP of their target companies, but also as a way to keep their names in the headlines and attract (trick) foolish investors into chasing what sounds like a good story, rather than following a solid investment strategy.
Last edited:
This is what I wrote in September 2016 here:
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
To me there are two main possibilities regarding effects of Model X ramp on Model 3:
1. Tesla learns from their mistakes, and does a much better job with Model 3.
2. Tesla doesn't learn from their mistakes, and Model 3 ramp has major issues like the X.
Now, I know we're on TMC and it's a fan club so anti-Tesla comments aren't appreciated, but I'm a Tesla fan and investor... so please don't take my comments as anti-Tesla. I'm trying to be constructive. That said...
I have my doubts as to if Tesla has really learned their lesson with Model X. Tesla/Elon points to hubris and the difficulty making the Model X as the main problem for the X issues, and they point to designing Model 3 with DFM (Design For Manufacturing) principles. I think that helps. But I don't think it hits the nail on the head.
In my opinion, I think the more important problem was that Tesla didn't do comprehensive enough testing on the Model X. They should have had 50+ Model X prototypes on the road, running all day in various instances in public and private places, and this should have gone on for at least 6 months prior to production. If they had done this, they would have caught all the major problems of the X and fixed them. The problem with the X, as I see it, is that they skimped on the testing. Tesla decided to "hide" the Model X from public and even when they showed the car, it seemed like they only have 4(?) prototypes. Even at the X reveal event at end of Q3 2015, one of the Model X FWDs wouldn't open and they had to remove it as a test drive vehicle. Even at the event, it was clear the FWDs had major issues. Perhaps it was because Tesla wanted to save money, but to have only 4 (again I'm speculating and could be wrong, but I'd like to see me proven wrong) test vehicles is crazy. And it's probably the main reason they didn't catch all the problems.
Yes, the Model 3 will be easier to manufacture. But they also have a much more aggressive ramp schedule with much larger volume goals. So, any problems will be magnified.
What I'm looking for is whether or not Tesla will show evidence that they have 50-100 test vehicles doing extensive and rigorous testing at least 6 months before production. If they do this, then I think Model 3 ramp will go great. If there's no evidence of this (and we still hear or see just a few to several prototypes in January 2017), then I'd be worried that Model 3 ramp will not only go slower than anticipated but also have more quality issues than expected.
And as a Tesla fan and investor, I'm hoping Tesla nails the Model 3 ramp.
I didn't see any evidence that Tesla had an extensive fleet of Model 3 test vehicles (ie., 50-100) in Jan 2017. In fact, I don't remember seeing any evidence that Tesla EVER had an extensive fleet of Model 3 test vehicles... but perhaps the vehicles at the Model 3 delivery event was their main batch of test vehicles. If so, that's sadly very late. And probably a big reason for this delay. There's obviously going to be parts to replace and things to fix, and having a test fleet of just 30 cars or so in July 2017 and claim that you're going to be producing thousands of cars/week just a few months later, is unrealistic.
Alright, now you can throw your stones at me.
Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2016
To me there are two main possibilities regarding effects of Model X ramp on Model 3:
1. Tesla learns from their mistakes, and does a much better job with Model 3.
2. Tesla doesn't learn from their mistakes, and Model 3 ramp has major issues like the X.
Now, I know we're on TMC and it's a fan club so anti-Tesla comments aren't appreciated, but I'm a Tesla fan and investor... so please don't take my comments as anti-Tesla. I'm trying to be constructive. That said...
I have my doubts as to if Tesla has really learned their lesson with Model X. Tesla/Elon points to hubris and the difficulty making the Model X as the main problem for the X issues, and they point to designing Model 3 with DFM (Design For Manufacturing) principles. I think that helps. But I don't think it hits the nail on the head.
In my opinion, I think the more important problem was that Tesla didn't do comprehensive enough testing on the Model X. They should have had 50+ Model X prototypes on the road, running all day in various instances in public and private places, and this should have gone on for at least 6 months prior to production. If they had done this, they would have caught all the major problems of the X and fixed them. The problem with the X, as I see it, is that they skimped on the testing. Tesla decided to "hide" the Model X from public and even when they showed the car, it seemed like they only have 4(?) prototypes. Even at the X reveal event at end of Q3 2015, one of the Model X FWDs wouldn't open and they had to remove it as a test drive vehicle. Even at the event, it was clear the FWDs had major issues. Perhaps it was because Tesla wanted to save money, but to have only 4 (again I'm speculating and could be wrong, but I'd like to see me proven wrong) test vehicles is crazy. And it's probably the main reason they didn't catch all the problems.
Yes, the Model 3 will be easier to manufacture. But they also have a much more aggressive ramp schedule with much larger volume goals. So, any problems will be magnified.
What I'm looking for is whether or not Tesla will show evidence that they have 50-100 test vehicles doing extensive and rigorous testing at least 6 months before production. If they do this, then I think Model 3 ramp will go great. If there's no evidence of this (and we still hear or see just a few to several prototypes in January 2017), then I'd be worried that Model 3 ramp will not only go slower than anticipated but also have more quality issues than expected.
And as a Tesla fan and investor, I'm hoping Tesla nails the Model 3 ramp.
I didn't see any evidence that Tesla had an extensive fleet of Model 3 test vehicles (ie., 50-100) in Jan 2017. In fact, I don't remember seeing any evidence that Tesla EVER had an extensive fleet of Model 3 test vehicles... but perhaps the vehicles at the Model 3 delivery event was their main batch of test vehicles. If so, that's sadly very late. And probably a big reason for this delay. There's obviously going to be parts to replace and things to fix, and having a test fleet of just 30 cars or so in July 2017 and claim that you're going to be producing thousands of cars/week just a few months later, is unrealistic.
Alright, now you can throw your stones at me.
Given the state of production hell, and having read the Elon biography, I can't help but wonder if this happened in a fit of Elon rage over incompetence causing dozens, if not hundreds of "little" problems everywhere that ended up snowballing over time into the current situation. Further, Elon expects people to dive into problems with both hands and try to figure out solutions, and if solutions are found, not be afraid to do whatever it takes to implement those solutions. Those that stand around idle while other coworkers are actively working on issues are not going to look good in Elon's eyes.
Krugerrand
Meow
Happened before; two VPs left after X launch but before fixed X ramp and Elon only wished one of them well. No idea if there were other departures around that time since everyone was wholly focused on, ‘OMG, two VPs left!!!’ but I’ll take a gentleman’s bet they weren’t the only two.
It’s never a bad time to unburden a company of dead wood.
Investing for outsized gains is not easy for most. You need a cautious side and a bold side. Most people err on just one side. They're either too cautious without the boldness needed to seize big opportunities. Or they're too bold without the caution (and due diligence) needed to handle their investments with care. Not too long ago, a bunch of people lost everything they had on GTAT, and those promoting that were people from this forum (but on another site). People got carried away at the possibilities of making a fortune and took too big risks at the expense of ignoring the cautious side.
I can tell you've developed a cautious side from your experience and you combine it with your bold side. You know there's a high probability (ie., 80%+) that TSLA stays above your cost basis, and makes a big run at some time... whether it's this year, next year, or the next. And you're dead set on riding that wave. But you also know when to get out when you need to get out. And you know not to make stupid bets, or if you make them you know how to cut your losses and get out. I think you're going to make a lot of money of your TSLA investment.
I would say though when you post possibilities, like "TSLA going to $2000 in 18 months" that you also add what probability you assign that possibility. Reason being is some folks are going to take that like you're 100% confident that TSLA will be a $2000 in 18 months. I know, it seems ridiculous that people would actually read your post, believe it to be 100% true, and go buy tons of calls off of that, but you'd be surprised. There are surprisingly a good number of people easily influenced by hype, and also lack the cautious side for whatever reason (lack of experience or temptation of quick gain). You'd think that nobody here has their entire net worth in TSLA OTM calls expiring within the next 6 months, but you might be surprised.
Last edited:
3Victoria
Active Member
I don't think it is it is that dramatic. The workers will be on a bell curve from worst to best. While one does one's best to only hire the best, of course some workers will not work out. Perhaps they do not get along with their coworkers, are chronically late, etc. They are fired, and hopefully better employees hired.
Reciprocity
Active Member
In manufacturing its not even subjective, they track error rates and breaks and throughput of every employee. Since it was a number under 10%, then what they probably do is have a score that is based on all the metrics they track and if you are above a certain score, you get a raise. If you are 10% below the score you get to keep your job but you are informed that you are not meeting expectations and so on down to the those who get let go. Its cold and harsh, but its critical because if you work on the factory floor, you know who is slacking and you know if they are still there after this, you are going to become disenchanted and not work as hard. It sends a clear message and is probably why it was one in one big group because then the message gets delivered. If its done in small groups of ones and twos here and there, no one really notices.
I think people are grossly over thinking this. The numbers are very small in the greater scheme of things at 4-7% and remember that not all where working at the plant, some where service and some where Solarcity so they had nothing to do with manufacturing the Model 3 so the actual percent of manufacturing must be smaller then the 4-7%. Its actually a very good sign that there were not more slackers that couldn't score high enough to keep their jobs. I cannot stress enough how important it is for moral to cut dead weight. Laziness spreads like a virus and people who work hard, your best people, become very unhappy if the laziness is not handled.
MACD had the downward cross at the beginning of July. It has been negative for almost 4 months, but the stock refuse to go down. This set up usually leads to big rally.
bdy0627
Active Member
Rusch from the Oppenheimer note estimates Tesla’s total Model 3 deliveries at 3,005 units this year. We now have at least 3 analysts with similarly low numbers, and this one just met with Tesla management. I've got to believe that's a pretty accurate estimate at this point in time with what is known. Even though the production curve is difficult to predict and it could be higher (or lower), this is roughly the number to expect by the end of December 2017. The question is, is that the number the market now expects for this year? This and the other analysts' notes are out there as well as the comments from EM, so I think the market probably does expect somewhere around 2-4K by the end of this year. This suggests a delay of about 2 1/2 months. It sure seems like the J20s will be out before this stock shoots up.
Curious move?
It would be interesting to see if the bottlenecks are linked to GM using Tesla suppliers.
Ron Baron Talks Tesla, SpaceX, And GM Using Tesla Suppliers – Seattle Electric Vehicle Assocation (SEVA)
Ron Baron Talks Tesla, SpaceX, And GM Using Tesla Suppliers
It would be interesting to see if the bottlenecks are linked to GM using Tesla suppliers.
Ron Baron Talks Tesla, SpaceX, And GM Using Tesla Suppliers – Seattle Electric Vehicle Assocation (SEVA)
Ron Baron Talks Tesla, SpaceX, And GM Using Tesla Suppliers
erthquake
Active Member
Do you mean testing with production tooling? We've seen release candidates since late March, and I've seen evidence that they have been/are being put through the wringer.
I was in Palo Alto this past weekend, and I visited headquarters early Sunday morning before I left. I saw quite a few of the release candidates. Some had the big white numbers that we've all seen on the back left passenger window. Others just had the manufacture plates, but you could see the testing cables in the front passenger footwell and/or had the big yellow and red stop button.
On one of the RCs, I could see the bare aluminum steering column as well as a small wiring harness going into the back of the steering wheel. This one also had a white rear passenger bench seat, while the back of the rear seat was black. Front passenger seats were also black. On a silver RC (attached photo), there were marker crossings across all of the panel gaps, presumably to test whether the gaps are migrating over time.
We began seeing these RCs in late March, which gave about 3+ months of testing before they started making the first 30 production cars. It's not the six-month period that others say is needed, and they surely weren't going to catch or prevent every issue that would happen on the full production line. But they probably worked out a lot of "macro" issues with these RCs.
On a side note, I've thoroughly enjoyed your contributions to this thread over the last few days DaveT. The quality of your posts is making me up my game and think twice before I clutter up this forum. Much gratitude.
Yes. I just saw the roughly 3K total production number from Rusch. Disappointing and reminiscent of the model X ramp. Hopefully he is wrong but if he is correct in the short term we better hope that Q3ER/CC is a homerun and that the semi event (other info hinted at by EM for that event) are great.
If you fully understand what Elon and his teams (Tesla and SpaceX) went through in the past 14 years, the current situation is a walk in the breeze. Don't be fooled by those "unbiased" analysts who really want to see TSLA collapse.
To me any pullback is a buying opportunity. Pretty sure we will see $1,000, though I can't predict the path and timing.
To me any pullback is a buying opportunity. Pretty sure we will see $1,000, though I can't predict the path and timing.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
Drawing a similarity between politicians and prostitutes strikes me as rather disrespectful.
I grew up in Nevada, and there's nothing those honest working girls have ever done to deserve this type of comparison, just saying.
Last edited:
Chickenlittle
Banned
Estimate of 3005 is rediculous why not 3006 or 3004. Giving an estimate of 3005 shows ignorance that the prediction can be that precise. Why not 3000? It’s not just form it indicates that there is a lack of understanding
I have a feeling that Oppenheimer is purposely giving a low-ball estimate of Model 3 numbers, just like Adam Jonas, to either give room for an upgrade later in the year or to avoid being accused of not being careful enough with its expectations. I suppose the ridiculously-precise number fits into this explanation.
If not for this low number today, I would have expected the Oppenheimer note news to have had more positive an effect on the stock price. Might the positive trading action around 11:30 am today have been a response to advance news of this note and the afternoon dip and then perfectly horizontal trading in the afternoon for nearly two hours have been a manipulation by shorts in response to that pre-lunch rise? I suppose the market will give us a clue tomorrow.
- Status
Similar threads
- Locked
- Locked
- Article
