Might want to wait until they start pumping out M3's to customers. I don't see reason for the stock to rebound yet.
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Waiting4M3
Active Member
I hope TT07 and everyone aren't too leveraged. Personally I would never margin, and only do shares and LEAPS. My main problem with this imminent dip the next few months is that I might run out of popcorns.
Except that the stock has dropped 20% for a minor 3 month delay in the ramp. Semi reveal in two weeks, and TE margins on battery backup is over 20% (I didn't think it was that good already). I think we close over 310 tomorrow, maybe over 320. Just a guess.
larmor
Active Member
They telegraphed that they have addressed the problems. They stated they re wrote assembly robotic code in 40 days that takes years.
They are making cars not subscriptions to movies or emojis.
Once m3 rolls off in high volume, it will be too late to enter...
a 3 month delay will turn into a 6 month delay. everything that Elon musk had promised was always a delay
A 3 month delay MAY turn into a 6 month delay. However, everything that Elon Musk has promised was always delivered.
I do find it funny how all us bulls were hoping the M3 ramp would be different, and yet its playing out just like all the other ramps. I see no reason why the end result won't be the same as before, nor the period between now and then, which means stock price flat or down from here until the moment of turnaround. The repeating of the cycles during each ramp are quite hilarious. I will say, I didn't sell at $380 even though I thought about it because I too thought, "Maybe this time is different". But it rarely is.
Zhelko Dimic
Careful bull
It didn't dare expect that this ramp will be different, though I hopped.
However, as I compared elsewhere, if this ramp goes as well/bad as Model X, they will be out of hell in a production in Feb '18
And their communication is so,so much better this time. No BS, no tricks, very transparent.
That's ok, I think it's time to start buying, but I would prefer around $300 and $280 if possible... Maybe I will go again to 150% through DITM Jan '19
Waiting4M3
Active Member
So M3 ramp is 3 months late, what of it?
I'm a lot more interested to see if they can indeed breakeven on the margin at the end of Q4 even at a low production rate. Everyone knows eventually Tesla can make a lot of M3s. The question, and the last line of defense for the bears, will always be whether Tesla can make money selling the M3. If Tesla can breakeven in Q4 I think it bodes very well for achieving 25% margin after they ramp to 5K/wk in late Q1. I'm excited about this especially after seeing more and more videos of M3 production line running without any person in it. The stubborn bears will hold out till Q2 to find out, but the smart money may pile in when the Q4 financials comes out.
I'm a lot more interested to see if they can indeed breakeven on the margin at the end of Q4 even at a low production rate. Everyone knows eventually Tesla can make a lot of M3s. The question, and the last line of defense for the bears, will always be whether Tesla can make money selling the M3. If Tesla can breakeven in Q4 I think it bodes very well for achieving 25% margin after they ramp to 5K/wk in late Q1. I'm excited about this especially after seeing more and more videos of M3 production line running without any person in it. The stubborn bears will hold out till Q2 to find out, but the smart money may pile in when the Q4 financials comes out.
anticitizen13.7
Not posting at TMC after 9/17/2018
Because in the short term, the stock market inflicts maximum pain on both bulls and bears alike.
Tesla is running towards EVs, all but certain to be the future of the automobile, like a dog running after a squirrel, while the existing global automakers are trying to squirm away from EVs like a dog being dragged toward the bathtub.
What does this translate to quantitatively? You tell me. Tell me what year Tesla will fall to less than 50% of total vehicle market share for long range EVs for all markets excluding China. Then think about the fact that the world's largest maker of gasoline cars has about 11% market share.
That's Tesla's consumer auto sales business, so, not including Tesla's shots on goal in energy storage, solar power generation, autonomous car as a service, or semi trucks.
larmor
Active Member
Because random non car enthusiasts, non automotive people ask me all the time about model 3, and stated they are getting out of their mercedes lease to get one but hoping soon.
The problem is the ramp for Model 3 is based on installation of a 2nd line which will only be ordered once the first "max throughput is reached" of 5000/week of Model 3 alone (separate from MS/MX). There is a chance that this actuality is not reached for quite some time. Just as various prior guidance "goals" were missed, who can trust that this new guidance will be met? And now, blaming suppliers is part of the picture. I suspect a good 1k-2k per week is possible going into Q1 but 5k per week is going to be tough. The reservation list itself is not fully vetted and in order to do so, I really believe that Tesla should lock in Model 3 reservations as non-refundable past March 1st. This gives people a chance to possibly test-drive before committing. However a company can be incorrectly guided by these reservations taken by investors wanting to showcase the company and push their stock value up. I actually know three people who have Model 3 reservations who will actually not buy them (one already has 3 Teslas R, S, X) another doesn't make much money and needs the $7500 credit or cannot purchase. The third has two Leafs and doesn't make much money and expects the Model 3 base unit to lease for $200/month. So, perhaps numerous more examples like this fill out the Model 3 reservation list and the real number is not enough to meet the factory "proposed throughput" and they settle on one line, thus 200,000-250,000 max per year.
You may get a stock pop simply because funds use the name as an investment growth stock and many own billions in valuation. They just cannot "let it go". Also, guys like Ron Baron must "save face".
5K per week going into Q1 is all but certain not to happen- current guidance is 5K/week late in Q1.
3Victoria
Active Member
I don't understand the downer sentiments. EM honestly told us that predicting the course of the ramp is difficult (ie impossible) and that it would be a step-wise process. While one can all hope that there are no glitches, reality is that there will be glitches. If each process step has 1% chance of glitch-ing and there are thousands of steps, then it close to 100% that one of the steps will have a glitch. In the big picture, we are still on the lumpy bottom-end of the S-curve.
This is *not* unexpected.
This is *not* unexpected.
then why does he use terms like "100% certain" right before raising $1.8b?
I can not look at this ER and listen to the CC and come away with a positive feel for Tesla and TSLA in the short term. I am glad I reduced my TSLA exposure before the ER/CC.
I certainly may be reading this wrong and the stock price may rebound the next fews days but I put it better than 50:50 that we break down under $300 before we break above $320. This is NOT advice but how I personally feel after the ER/CC.
This is an old rant, but IMO, worth repeating. EM is brilliant and willing to take big risks but he is spread too thin and we need a COO to drive the daily train. If there was one they would put out and be responsible for accomplishing the 'realistic goals' of the company while EM championed the 'aspirational' ones to his team. The COO would be responsible to make sure the battery module production equipment had appropriate hardware and software so EM did not have to sleep on the factory floor or camp on the GF roof top. WTF.
I certainly may be reading this wrong and the stock price may rebound the next fews days but I put it better than 50:50 that we break down under $300 before we break above $320. This is NOT advice but how I personally feel after the ER/CC.
This is an old rant, but IMO, worth repeating. EM is brilliant and willing to take big risks but he is spread too thin and we need a COO to drive the daily train. If there was one they would put out and be responsible for accomplishing the 'realistic goals' of the company while EM championed the 'aspirational' ones to his team. The COO would be responsible to make sure the battery module production equipment had appropriate hardware and software so EM did not have to sleep on the factory floor or camp on the GF roof top. WTF.
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