Is that really you? Looks like a bear hacked into TrendTrader's account to confuse us
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Is that really you? Looks like a bear hacked into TrendTrader's account to confuse us
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Esme Es Mejor
Member
A year ago, TSLA was at $202.49, having run up more than 10% over its ~$180 low. Someone may have thought the market was getting a little too excited, sold their shares, and missed out on more than $140/share.
If TSLA goes up by the same percentage over the next year, someone selling Monday will miss out on more than $240/share. So, make your bet & take your chances.
If TSLA goes up by the same percentage over the next year, someone selling Monday will miss out on more than $240/share. So, make your bet & take your chances.
I heard a story here about someone who sold after the runup to $30 thinking he would buy back in after the next dip. He bought back in over $180.
This is why they tell people not to time the market.
This is why they tell people not to time the market.
Indeed. Check out the posts starting with #126 in this thread from 2013 MAR 12 when TSLA closed at $39.12. Mine is the sixth post (#131) after the first one linked. It's my final paragraph in that post that is most relevant.
Link to 2013 TMC thread: Short-Term TSLA Price Movements - 2013
Bet TSLA
Active Member
I started looking at TSLA in 2013 when it was around $80. I figured I'd buy when if got back down to $65. Ha! I finally bought my first shares at $159.90 in September. Lots and lots of trades since then.
sundaymorning
Active Member
I agree with this sentiment. This is by far one of the worst time to ‘time’ the market. FOMO outweighs anything short-term for me. We’re so close I can almost taste the glory, my guess is that in 1-2 years $100-300 gains will be the new norm around here.
I bought my first shares in March 2013 at about $37. I also bought SCTY after that and bought more TSLA after the conversion of SCTY to TSLA, so my average is just about $200/shr. I always regretted not buying more AAPL (or just holding onto all of the AAPL I had bought) when I first bought in 17 years ago. So periodically buying more TSLA makes me hope I don't feel the same about Tesla. Like others here I'm just a lucky know-nothing when it comes to this, but I have found that buy/hold works well for me as I am awful at timing the market. Though buying TSLA in March 2013 was a pretty damn good timing.
But as I always say there is a risk to buying any stock and no one should be gambling with their rent/mortgage funds.
But as I always say there is a risk to buying any stock and no one should be gambling with their rent/mortgage funds.
I'm very long on TSLA and everything EM. I don't foresee a need to liquidate and have no plans of getting out, ever. Having said that, i have noticed that most people have no idea what Tesla is about, the technology and the trillion-dollar markets it can take a piece of. Most importantly people seem to ignore the very real and amazing accomplishments, focusing on small, irrelevant, events. I like the fact that i'm very confident in the long-term success of the company, and the idea that Elon has repeatedly shown himself to be hardworking and selfless, even if we don't appreciate it. At the same time there is a lot of negative and ignorant sentiment (fueled by ICE/Big Oil) confusing people, making the stock very volatile. I would love to lower my avg price with a few well timed trades. I almost sold before the recent dip, but decided to wait till next morning and missed the boat. Based on my research i was confident there would be a dip, but got greedy and missed out.
I can see SP $400 or higher after Q1 ER, pending M3 production rates are where they should be (which they will). Meanwhile, Q4 ER likely won't be pretty, and M3 production rates are likely not going to be more then the 1000k/wk EM suggested Q3ER (if at that). Lots of ammunition for the shorts to depress the SP.
stock is deeply undervalued in my view based on fundamental analysis (i.e. value investing). I buy or sell core shares based on the relationship of the stock price vs. my view of value of the shares... not on the pace of stock price movement. By sticking with this, I did not sell a single share as my core position went up 6X in the span of months in 2013, when the stock moved at a pace that makes this past week's movement look like a diesel semi trying to keep pace with the new Tesla Roadster. On this basis, to date, I've only purchased core shares : ) (I play with trading shares, but, that's another story, though also based on share price vs. my model of underlying fair value based on fundamentals).
fwiw, this link has a base case of a valuation of Tesla Auto I shared on TMC this past April (does not include Tesla semi, does have a small contribution from Tesla Energy). you can substitute your own inputs if you don't agree with mine. it's really not that hard to do a simple model of Tesla Auto (Tesla Energy, Tesla Network (autonomous Uber competitor), much more fuzzy to try to forecast what these businesses will look like... but fortunately, Tesla is still quite undervalued just on Tesla Auto, even if you drop out the conservative bit of Tesla Energy I put in).
Google+ video hangouts (TSLA & other investments)
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I sold some shares in 2014 at $205 to pay for new swimming pool, and some more in 2015 for $250 to pay for an addition on my house. There was $215k profit on those sales, but if I'd held them until today I would have made an additional $182k on them. So barring any surprise cash needs, I'm holding firm at least until Model 3's are fully ramped, because it bothers me every time I look back at those shares I used to own. I know I don't know enough to time the market.
Flip side: You and your family have been able to enjoy the pool and use the additional space.
jelloslug
Active Member
As long as you met the goals that you set forth when you initially invested it, there is no need to look back longly at the sale. I sold a chunk at 280 to get my Model S and I’m glad I did it.
Another option: I'm retired and most of my investments are in indexed funds in an IRA, I do have some $ in a "taxable" account. Two years ago we purchased Tesla stock at $150/share. This year I doubled the amount and bought additional shares when it went from $360 to $303. We make our charitable donations from this account and have been able to double the amount given to 11 local charities for the same cost--while avoiding long term capital gains. I look at this as a win/win. You donate twice as much for half the cost and avoid capital gains--the donations are deductable and the charities benefit.
ValueAnalyst
Closed
Surprised to read this. You’re all out because of a 15% increase? Can you please elaborate?
bambam4171
Member
Only makes sense if meant funny for someone that always said he was superlong and was mentioning keeping the stock for the next few years.
The Blue Owl
Endangerous Herbivore
A possible clue is how 16 posters (as of now) rated that post something other than Informative...
Words of HABIT
Active Member
Curt, I just now LIKED your March 12th, 2013 post. Does that still count?
Best,
Daniel
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So, tell me if I'm crazy, or just reading too much into things, but I feel pretty confident now that the worst of the M3 ramp issues - or at least the ones that held the car up so far - are behind us.
I have no doubt that most of you are following the indicators just like I do: the recent "explosion" of VIN sightings, reports of thousands of configuration emails going out on what now seems to be a regular basis and a continuous inflow of delivery reports and videos of hundreds of M3s parked in various lots all point in the same direction. However, I doubt that big funds would be moved by such indirect and anecdotal evidence alone and also doubt that the recent price action could be just us more dedicated retail investors buying stock.
So, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I think "someone knows something". And by that i mean nothing shady, just that those big funds that do have the power to take us up by ~ 10% within a few days probably have done their homework and are seeing the same things as we are. I also don't think that the excellent S & X numbers we are all but taking for granted by now alone would have such powers if M3 ramp would still be struggling.
I have no doubt that most of you are following the indicators just like I do: the recent "explosion" of VIN sightings, reports of thousands of configuration emails going out on what now seems to be a regular basis and a continuous inflow of delivery reports and videos of hundreds of M3s parked in various lots all point in the same direction. However, I doubt that big funds would be moved by such indirect and anecdotal evidence alone and also doubt that the recent price action could be just us more dedicated retail investors buying stock.
So, at the risk of sounding like a conspiracy theorist, I think "someone knows something". And by that i mean nothing shady, just that those big funds that do have the power to take us up by ~ 10% within a few days probably have done their homework and are seeing the same things as we are. I also don't think that the excellent S & X numbers we are all but taking for granted by now alone would have such powers if M3 ramp would still be struggling.
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