2017 Investor Roundtable: TSLA Market Action

[bdy0627]

Really wish I had some more money...

 

[Richgoogol]

wtf is going on

 

[Drax7]

Cant say i understand the sell off these last 3 days
better than anticipated model 3 production is actually very positive

 

[madodel]

Makes production of S/X simpler I guess.

 

[Skryll]

Cant say i understand the sell off these last 3 days
better than anticipated model 3 production is actually very positive

And it will be apparent once we actually see deliveries happen. So far we just saw videos and pictures of lots with cars but not that many actual deliveries. This may very soon change and make a big difference. Also getting past the trump/mueller and tax cut for the corporations failed vote situation will be an overall market catalyst.

 

[Mike Smith]

wtf is going on

There's probably a lot of concern about why there are lots full of Model 3's and zero customer deliveries. They start today so hopefully that will turn the tide.

 

[Mike Smith]

I'd say we're due for a good sized over-sold bounce. It's been $20 straight down the last few days.

 

[larmor]

And it will be apparent once we actually see deliveries happen. So far we just saw videos and pictures of lots with cars but not that many actual deliveries. This may very soon change and make a big difference. Also getting past the trump/mueller and tax cut for the corporations failed vote situation will be an overall market catalyst.

The market waiting for M3 deliveries is curious. The market would act as a leading indicator and expect to react before deliveries, and then sell the news. The market appears to want 'show me the money' for tesla, but for other companies with vaporware is enough to drive valuation.

So what can be added to the tesla story beyond M3: Semi orders-- wait for delivery, Roadster pre orders-- wait for delivery. TE-- wait for balance sheet returns, but wait, they all ready sold them and installed them. Solar-- wait for tesla to partner with a new home builders for solar roof product.

Waiting for all of these triggers, for traditional momentum and paradigm shifting companies would be too late. But for tesla, there is bow tied package just waiting to be opened...

 

[WarpedOne]

So what can be added to the tesla story beyond M3:

Pozitive EPS.

 

[dc_h]

Pozitive EPS.

FCF

 

[Waiting4M3]

The market waiting for M3 deliveries is curious. The market would act as a leading indicator and expect to react before deliveries, and then sell the news. The market appears to want 'show me the money' for tesla, but for other companies with vaporware is enough to drive valuation.

So what can be added to the tesla story beyond M3: Semi orders-- wait for delivery, Roadster pre orders-- wait for delivery. TE-- wait for balance sheet returns, but wait, they all ready sold them and installed them. Solar-- wait for tesla to partner with a new home builders for solar roof product.

Waiting for all of these triggers, for traditional momentum and paradigm shifting companies would be too late. But for tesla, there is bow tied package just waiting to be opened...

Maye after Q3 disappointment, the market is in sell the rumor buy the news mode, assuming Tesla will miss (somehow) until solid news comes out.

 

[neroden]

There is 0% chance this House impeaches Trump over firing Mueller.

It only needs 21 Republicans. I haven't done a whip count, but there's definitely a >0% chance.

The Senate, where *2/3* would be needed to vote to convict, is what's unlikely.

 

[neroden]

$TSLA highly likely to find support right here in $326 to $331 range and start a furious rally of approx 25 % into the next 7 trading days of 2017 and first 7 trading days of January 2018 with $410 to $419 in sight by mid January 2018

Due to typical year-end tax-related and low-volume-holiday-related market moves, I would absolutely NOT expect a rally to start before January 3rd. I mean it certainly could, but it would be unexpected to me.

There's often tax loss harvesting at the end of the year and with tax law *changes* you often see loss-taking and profit-taking and mutual fund position adjustments at the very *start* of the year. Expect choppy trading until at least the second trading day in January. When does Tesla release delivery numbers? Slightly after that?

 

[neroden]

I don't think they'll hold back sales, they'll just push cars outside of the US.

Indeed -- Noticed the beefing up of European shipping lately?

 

[larmor]

Maye after Q3 disappointment, the market is in sell the rumor buy the news mode, assuming Tesla will miss (somehow) until solid news comes out.

Tsla is a fascinating study in behavioral economics. Agree with above, most of the market trades on the rumor and sells the news. So the market is basically saying we don't believe the rumor, even though it is based in facts-- ie few M3 deliveries, but thousands of pre orders and machinery to make thousands of cars per week... TE performing in various locations, Australia, irvine water station, mira loma, etc (correct me where wrong).

 

[Papafox]

Due to typical year-end tax-related and low-volume-holiday-related market moves, I would absolutely NOT expect a rally to start before January 3rd. I mean it certainly could, but it would be unexpected to me.

There's often tax loss harvesting at the end of the year and with tax law *changes* you often see loss-taking and profit-taking and mutual fund position adjustments at the very *start* of the year. Expect choppy trading until at least the second trading day in January. When does Tesla release delivery numbers? Slightly after that?

Yes, I am inclined to believe that tax considerations (since we will see a change in the law from 2017 to 2018) will have a noticeable effect upon TSLA trading throughout the end of December.

That said, TSLA currently has a bipolar personality, and as the SP recovers from its dip and approaches the red/green line, there's a chance it will go green and we see a rally through the end of the day, or it will fall short of crossing that line and then the stock becomes prey for a dip into close. Wish I could predict on a daily basis!

 

[augkuo]

when we start seeing loads of Model 3's leaving the factory then I'll expect the SP to go back up - right now the cars are piling up and not getting delivered

 

[Drax7]

finishing up on the day will be a nice rejection of the recent short fud,
chainos , sec investigation, shhhpiegel, tesla killers du jour etc..

 

[Mike Smith]

Due to typical year-end tax-related and low-volume-holiday-related market moves, I would absolutely NOT expect a rally to start before January 3rd. I mean it certainly could, but it would be unexpected to me.

There's often tax loss harvesting at the end of the year and with tax law *changes* you often see loss-taking and profit-taking and mutual fund position adjustments at the very *start* of the year. Expect choppy trading until at least the second trading day in January. When does Tesla release delivery numbers? Slightly after that?

This year may be unusual for Tesla. After the q3 earnings call most non true believers would have sold if they hadn't already on the way down. This recent move higher i believe was caused by institutional buying. So we're left with true believers and actively accumulating institutions. I doubt many would try selling and then buying back in right after the new year since anyone holding now is probably expecting good deliveries and Model 3 news and won't want to be caught out.

 

[cranker2k]

when we start seeing loads of Model 3's leaving the factory then I'll expect the SP to go back up - right now the cars are piling up and not getting delivered

I wonder what would be the reasons why (mostly) the Model 3s are piled up FULL in storage parking lots. Needing final parts, or purposely holding them until next quarter/year as they believe the Model S/X deliveries will surpass expectation?