2017 Q4 Deliveries

[Manton]

Elon Musk on Twitter

35,001. Lets help this hat salesman out.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Total - 29 830

13930 - Model X
13560 - Model S
2340 - Model 3

Your prediction isn't specific enough is this a model output?

 

[ValueAnalyst]

1,500 3
12,500 S
13,000. X

AFAIK this is one of the more conservative predictions, especially for Model S. Would you mind maybe elaborating on the 12,500 for Model S so that I can see if I'm missing something obvious.

 

[jbcarioca]

AFAIK this is one of the more conservative predictions, especially for Model S. Would you mind maybe elaborating on the 12,500 for Model S so that I can see if I'm missing something obvious.

You're not. I am feeling conservative right now for this quarter.

 

[GoTslaGo]

26k-27k:

13000 S
12000 X
2000 3

25k S&X because 27k would be 100k for S&X for the year. Musk mentioned they’ll probably be 10% lower this quarter due to manpower needs for 3.

2000 3s would fit with a 10x increase in q3 model 3 deliveries.

I’m guessing just a bit lower than 2k for model 3s.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

26k-27k:

13000 S
12000 X
2000 3

25k S&X because 27k would be 100k for S&X for the year. Musk mentioned they’ll probably be 10% lower this quarter due to manpower needs for 3.

2000 3s would fit with a 10x increase in q3 model 3 deliveries.

I’m guessing just a bit lower than 2k for model 3s.

Even if we assume Model S/X production was kept at 1,800/week, some expect inventory clearance for both models in 4Q/1Q before refresh in 2Q.

 

[Svetlin]

voted for > 30k
~14k Model S
~14k Model X
~2k Model 3

 

[ValueAnalyst]

30,000 Total
14,000 Model S
13,500 Model X
2,500 Model 3

Revising:

31,000 Total
14,000 Model S
14,000 Model X
3,000 Model 3

 

[Drax7]

deliveries
S+X= 26,000
model 3 = 2,000
total 28,000

28,000 with good degree of confidence
27,000 with high degree of confidence

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Revising:

31,000 Total
14,000 Model S
14,000 Model X
3,000 Model 3

Revising back down to my original total estimate:

30,000 Total
13,500 Model S
13,500 Model X
3,000 Model 3

I want to be less optimistic going into the 4Q17 Delivery Report in light of the reduced Model S/X production rate comment.

 

[ScottT]

At this point I am thinking ~30k vehicles (27k S&X and 3k Model 3). Although I think they number may surprise us depending on the number of inventory units sold.

Tesla's comments on the last call indicated they will be running down inventory. But how much inventory did they have at the start of the quarter? I've been trying to figure this out. Inventory at EV-CPO (link below) is down to only ~200 units. I started going through the records and sorting by the date removed from Tesla's website. Unfortunately, I had to extract to excel page by page, there doesn't seem to be an easy way to extract all data at once. I only got as far as page 33 of 82 which included only model S in the USA, of which ~850 fell within 10/1/17 though 12/31/17 range.

Thoughts on if this is a good way to estimate the number of inventory vehicles sold and/or if there is a better way to do it before I waste more time?

EV-CPO.com - Tesla New, Used, and CPO Inventory Listings

 

[Richgoogol]

Here’s our answer from Elon himself.

 

[HankLloydRight]

Thoughts on if this is a good way to estimate the number of inventory vehicles sold and/or if there is a better way to do it before I waste more time?

Send me a PM with exactly what you want to analyze, and I can probably do it a lot easier directly from the database.

 

[ScottT]

Here’s our answer from Elon himself.

I will be pleasantly surprised if it's 35k

 

[ggr]

I will be pleasantly surprised if it's 35k

Just to de-confuse people, that tweet was about the number of Boring Company hats sold. I guess I might also be the number of cars delivered, but I don't think so.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

I will be pleasantly surprised if it's 35k

Just to de-confuse people, that tweet was about the number of Boring Company hats sold. I guess I might also be the number of cars delivered, but I don't think so.

There is zero chance that hat sales represent deliveries.

 

[ScottT]

There is zero chance that hat sales represent deliveries.

35k hat deliveries, 35k base price model 3. All signs are pointing to 35k deliveries

</sarcasm>

 

[ScottT]

At this point I am thinking ~30k vehicles (27k S&X and 3k Model 3). Although I think they number may surprise us depending on the number of inventory units sold.

Tesla's comments on the last call indicated they will be running down inventory. But how much inventory did they have at the start of the quarter? I've been trying to figure this out. Inventory at EV-CPO (link below) is down to only ~200 units. I started going through the records and sorting by the date removed from Tesla's website. Unfortunately, I had to extract to excel page by page, there doesn't seem to be an easy way to extract all data at once. I only got as far as page 33 of 82 which included only model S in the USA, of which ~850 fell within 10/1/17 though 12/31/17 range.

Thoughts on if this is a good way to estimate the number of inventory vehicles sold and/or if there is a better way to do it before I waste more time?

EV-CPO.com - Tesla New, Used, and CPO Inventory Listings

Thanks HankLloydRight for running a query on the db. 5,285 units were removed from Tesla's website between October 1st, 2017 and December 26-ish, 2017 (breakdown below) Still not sure if this is the best way to analyze number of inventory units sold, but we'll see.

Oct: 1,674
Nov: 2,323
Dec: 1,288
Total: 5,285

In transit at end of Q3 was 4,820, so we can assume all these were delivered.

Assuming max production of 21,600 (1800 week * 12 weeks). Then max deliveries of S&X would be 31,705, however, I will assume somewhere around 4k will be in transit going into Q1 2018 and 1k to inventory. So, my S&X prediction is now 26,705.

I still think model 3 will be around 3k

So total deliveries at 29,705.

 

[ValueAnalyst]

Median is slightly above 28,000. It's been at or near 28,000 for the duration of the voting period.

 

[MartinAustin]

29,999