Manton
Member
35,001. Lets help this hat salesman out.
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Total - 29 830
13930 - Model X
13560 - Model S
2340 - Model 3
1,500 3
12,500 S
13,000. X
You're not. I am feeling conservative right now for this quarter.AFAIK this is one of the more conservative predictions, especially for Model S. Would you mind maybe elaborating on the 12,500 for Model S so that I can see if I'm missing something obvious.
26k-27k:
13000 S
12000 X
2000 3
25k S&X because 27k would be 100k for S&X for the year. Musk mentioned they’ll probably be 10% lower this quarter due to manpower needs for 3.
2000 3s would fit with a 10x increase in q3 model 3 deliveries.
I’m guessing just a bit lower than 2k for model 3s.
30,000 Total
14,000 Model S
13,500 Model X
2,500 Model 3
Revising:
31,000 Total
14,000 Model S
14,000 Model X
3,000 Model 3
Thoughts on if this is a good way to estimate the number of inventory vehicles sold and/or if there is a better way to do it before I waste more time?
Here’s our answer from Elon himself.
Just to de-confuse people, that tweet was about the number of Boring Company hats sold. I guess I might also be the number of cars delivered, but I don't think so.I will be pleasantly surprised if it's 35k
I will be pleasantly surprised if it's 35k
Just to de-confuse people, that tweet was about the number of Boring Company hats sold. I guess I might also be the number of cars delivered, but I don't think so.
There is zero chance that hat sales represent deliveries.
At this point I am thinking ~30k vehicles (27k S&X and 3k Model 3). Although I think they number may surprise us depending on the number of inventory units sold.
Tesla's comments on the last call indicated they will be running down inventory. But how much inventory did they have at the start of the quarter? I've been trying to figure this out. Inventory at EV-CPO (link below) is down to only ~200 units. I started going through the records and sorting by the date removed from Tesla's website. Unfortunately, I had to extract to excel page by page, there doesn't seem to be an easy way to extract all data at once. I only got as far as page 33 of 82 which included only model S in the USA, of which ~850 fell within 10/1/17 though 12/31/17 range.
Thoughts on if this is a good way to estimate the number of inventory vehicles sold and/or if there is a better way to do it before I waste more time?
EV-CPO.com - Tesla New, Used, and CPO Inventory Listings