2018 Tesla Model 3 Production: 80,000 or 264,000?

[Patrick0101]

How many Model 3s do you think Tesla will deliver in 2018? Tesla's guidance is as high as 264,000, Ben Sullins of Teslanomics predicts 200,000. This (link) says only 80,000 (my guess). Yes, 80k is a lot, but that still leaves plenty of people on the waitinglist at the end of 2018 and that will have impacts on the Federal incentive phase out too.

 

[sreams]

80,000 seems like an especially low estimate. That's fewer than 1700/wk average. And they are already at or near 1000/wk in January.

 

[davidc18]

I'm going to guess that even the 80k number is too high but time will tell. I am waiting to configure until the dual motor P option become available unless a test drive convinces me to part with the 70D. Will have to check back next year to see who was closer to the correct prediction.

 

[SSedan]

80,000 seems like an especially low estimate. That's fewer than 1700/wk average. And they are already at or near 1000/wk in January.

Not doubting but can you cite a source? Sincerely hope this is true but seems unbelievable after seeing 4th qtr numbers.

 

[sreams]

Not doubting but can you cite a source? Sincerely hope this is true but seems unbelievable after seeing 4th qtr numbers.

No specific sources other than observations of car movement and VINs getting deep into the 6000s three weeks into January.

 

[mjp462]

Realistically, $80k in 2018 isn't hard to believe. I saw Ben's video who guessed at 200k. Who knows, but I can't be optimistic at this point.

I reserved on day 1. If I can't buy a SR Model 3 in Q2, unfortunately, I'll lease a new Leaf and keep the reservation.

In 3 years there should be plenty of EV options. I love the Model 3 and am going to see another one tomorrow. But at a certain point, enough is enough.

 

[ebmcs03]

I reserved on day 1. If I can't buy a SR Model 3 in Q2, unfortunately, I'll lease a new Leaf and keep the reservation.

In 3 years there should be plenty of EV options. I love the Model 3 and am going to see another one tomorrow. But at a certain point, enough is enough.

Agreed. I think I have the same thought. If I can’t get a SR by then I’m just going to get something else and call it quits.

 

[McHoffa]

Realistically, $80k in 2018 isn't hard to believe. I saw Ben's video who guessed at 200k. Who knows, but I can't be optimistic at this point.

I reserved on day 1. If I can't buy a SR Model 3 in Q2, unfortunately, I'll lease a new Leaf and keep the reservation.

In 3 years there should be plenty of EV options. I love the Model 3 and am going to see another one tomorrow. But at a certain point, enough is enough.

Agreed. I think I have the same thought. If I can’t get a SR by then I’m just going to get something else and call it quits.

What delivery window do you have for SR? I’m early line waiter in NC and I’ve got “Early 2018”

 

[mjp462]

What delivery window do you have for SR? I’m early line waiter in NC and I’ve got “Early 2018”

I'm in CA and have early 2018 for SR.
Jan - Mar for first production.

 

[McHoffa]

I'm in CA and have early 2018 for SR.
Jan - Mar for first production.

I still show Dec-Feb for first production

 

[ElecFan]

Not doubting but can you cite a source? Sincerely hope this is true but seems unbelievable after seeing 4th qtr numbers.

There is already a thread on model 3 predictions using the invite spreadsheet. Check it out here.

 

[macpacheco]

In order to believe in 80k for 2018 you have to be blind to the information available or certain that Tesla can't raise production. Why it stops at 1000 or 1500/wk ????? The process of increasing production is the process of removing bottlenecks. Just because there's one today, it's not going to stay there for the rest of the year. And management isn't only working on removing the current bottleneck but predicting the potential next ones and removing them before they become a thing.
Perhaps people here need an upper pill !

 

[SSedan]

I should have been more specific in questioning the "at or near 1000 per week in January" statement, still not seeing anything to back that up.
Be awesome if it is true.

 

[macpacheco]

How many Tesla delivery centers apparently are delivering as many M3 as they can, like dozens a day ?
Let's say 4 delivery centers, 25 a day per center, 7 days a week.
That alone would come up at 100 cars/day or 700 cars/week, and that's not whats being built today, but rather what started production 3-4 weeks ago !
Ok, I pulled this number out of my behind, merely impressions from what was learned from people taking delivery during January.
I think its clear people are depressed because they really wanted their M3's yesterday, and non owners are still going to wait a few months, but the information on the ramp up is positive so far.
And of course the sensationalist, click baiting, anti Tesla media only really cares to amplify anti Tesla news which doesn't help.
9 weeks to April 1st. Then we'll know, and I predict Q1'18 will see around 20k cars build (average 1500/wk).
Then 26k for Q2 (2000/wk average).

 

[Mike Smith]

Tesla just said a few days ago that they're still on track to hit 2.5k/wk by end of Q1 and 5k/wk by end of Q2 (250k run rate at mid-point 2018). Assuming growth continues at the same pace in the second half of the year this suggests they will produce around 250k Model 3s in 2018.

Tesla says report of Model 3 production issues is ‘misinformed’ and ‘detached from reality’

'To be absolutely clear, we are on track with the previous projections for achieving increased Model 3 production rates that we provided earlier this month.'

 

[Garlan Garner]

My guess.... at least 232,000.

 

[WileyTheMan]

Assuming no major production/quality issues, I can see 200k-ish for the year.

 

[Triangles]

I should have been more specific in questioning the "at or near 1000 per week in January" statement, still not seeing anything to back that up.
Be awesome if it is true.

They were producing at a rate that was just shy of 1000/week at the end of December. I believe it was the 4th qtr earnings call that was the source. They said the last week of December (4 day week) they made 780something (I don't remember the exact number) model 3s. That's almost 200 cars per day and on a 5 day work week that is almost 1000 cars per week. That is where the 1000 cars per week number came from.

 

[kmngq]

InsideEVs estimates 1875 model 3s for Jan
that averages out a little less than 500/week.

I dont think they will even hit 150,000, maybe barely over 100,000 this year. i mean, i hope they do, but doesnt seem like it.

 

[Garlan Garner]

I guess I have to change my estimate numbers:

InsideEVs estimates 1185 Tesla Model 3s were delivered in January 2018

Man this is frustrating. We have to get past these "built by hand" numbers.

WHAT IS THE PROBLEM?

My stock is about to get clobbered. Inputting Trailing Stop Loss orders now.