I find no reference to that in the regulations, do you have a link?
Ah yes, the joys of 1/2 year vehicle...
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2019 Model 3's?
- Thread starter mattjs33
- Start date
I find no reference to that in the regulations, do you have a link?
Ah yes, the joys of 1/2 year vehicle...
To be honest, I really don't. I remember reading up on it in 1996 when the '97 F150's came out because it was such an unusual situation I'd not seen before. I'm sure I could find it somewhere, but I think the link that @mongo provides might be the best you can get. It requires a bit of explanation because "you can use a model year for 24 months" or whatever is a bit misleading on the surface.
The car only shows build month and year ,not the actual build DATE if one cares about such a thing. The salesperson (or whatever tesla calls them) or delivery advisor can get the actual "born on" date.. again if you care about such a thing.
For example, the sticker on my car on the drivers side has 11/18 on it, so I know the car was built in November of 2018 from that... but before I took delivery, when I was assigned my vin I asked my customer advisor (salesperson) for the actual "birthday" of the car and they have that in their back end systems. So, I know my car was actually "born on" 11/18/2018.
Now, what I dont know, and my CA didnt know, is.. is that "born on" date the day it LEFT the factory, or the day it was assigned a vin? Im used to being able to see all this information on the BMWs I have had before, so its a little weird not being able to easily get this info... but at least for my car I know the date now.
This can help in reference to @voip-ninja said... tesla changes things "mid stream" both software and hardware. I am not sure which way I prefer, at this juncture. I mean, I bought a tesla model 3, so I obviously was ok with them changing things on the fly.. but I also bought near the end of 2018 when most of last years changes had already been sorted out.
MY does make a difference on depreciation, but the tax credit being there (or not) also makes a difference. Its my guess that, worrying about 2018 or 2019 right now is not going to = the difference in the loss of the tax credit. Said another way, I dont believe the difference in a 2018 Model 3 or a 2019 Model 3 (I refuse to call it "M3", cause it aint) is going to be more than $3750 at any point for same options / vehicle.
The tax credit has nothing to do with 2018 vs 2019. It's based on when you took delivery of the vehicle. In my case, I can either take a 2018 now, or wait 3 weeks and get a 2019 P3D (I agree with not calling it a M3). Both will have the same tax credit of $3,750 as I'll take delivery before July 1, 2019. The difference is, however, roughly $1,800 for depreciation on a Tesla year over year for the same spec'd car.
I understand that. I am saying that the difference you are talking about is not as great as if you had taken delivery of the car last year, so those of us who bought a 2018 last year and realized the full tax credit are still ahead of the depreciation on people that buy a 2019 right now.
It doesnt make ANY sense to buy a 2018 right now, to me in fact. I dont know peoples situation, but I cant think of a situation where I could buy in the beginning of January or February, but could not have bought in December. My comment was aimed more at anyone who waited at the end of 2018 to "get a 2019" because of depreciation. Those people made a mistake, in my opinion.
Probably a wash in the long run for people who decided in 2018 to hold for a 2019 (pre-July). They lost $3,750 in tax credit, but did save $2,000 due to the price reduction. That difference of $1,750 is almost exactly the one-year depreciation savings between model years. For those of us that didn't even consider buying a Tesla in 2018, it makes no sense to get the 2018 vs the 2019 (like you stated). At this point, I'm just hoping my new IDA responds since my last one was laid off, and Tesla never forwarded my voicemails and questions to the new one.
If I were in your situation, I think I would wait (if I could) until march or april (or whenever I could "suss" out that they were putting HW version 3 in all the cars... or if I couldnt, before July to get the 3750 tax credit before it got cut in half again.
If I am buying a car, I tend to not worry about depreciation too much, because you dont actually "realize" the depreciation until you sell it, and I dont go into buying a new car planning to sell it. If I am thinking that way, I usually lease instead of buy and just give it back.
Anyway with the way tesla does options, there very well could be a difference in the depreciation of 2019 cars without HW 3 and 2019 cars with HW 3. Since tesla changes things on the fly, it makes the model year a little less important. Most people still have not figured that out (that the difference between 2017 and 2018 in a tesla may not be as important as the difference between a Jan 2018 tesla and a june 2018 tesla). Its counter to what people expect, so they still focus on model year, like every other manufacturer.
Model year matters much less in tesla land, as was already said, because sometimes substantial changes come inside the year... people just dont know that... yet. As tesla grows they absolutely will know. I would maintain that a 2019 without HW 3.0 will be more depreciated than one with it... if one cares about such things... so I would wait longer if I were you since it is something you are concerned about.
Just my opinion though.
Thought about that, but HW 3.0 only matters if you're getting FSD. If you're getting that now anyway, Tesla will upgrade your 2.5 to 3 at no charge. Black/blue book values don't take into account mid-year computer hardware changes on any car. It's simply not factored into resale value, unless sold private party. In fact, having FSD won't give you a cent more for a trade-in as it's not one of the listed metrics (EAP is however). Again, private party is a different story.
Totally agree in that I usually never worry about depreciation - in fact this is the first time I have, and for one reason only. It's already 2019, so why order a 2018 that costs the exact same as the 2019? No reason to just throw away ~$1,800 at this point. I'm pretty sure we're saying the same thing.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Since HW3 only matters for FSD, and HW2.5 cars get HW3 for free if you buy FSD, I don't see how it would make any difference.
TT97
Active Member
While at this point, I agree you might as well wait for a 3 with a '19 MY designation, I was curious about MY differences in Tesla values. I went on to KBB and spec'd out the same S 85D with '14 and '15 MY. Both with 60,000 miles, black, good condition and "standard options."
The '14 had trade-in value of $33,174; '15 value was $32,469,
And yes, I realize that 2 data points doesn't show anything and KBB never seems great with predicting trade-in value and there are multiple other factors that can effect value, but I did find funny the two random cars I selected had a higher value for the older car.
The '14 had trade-in value of $33,174; '15 value was $32,469,
And yes, I realize that 2 data points doesn't show anything and KBB never seems great with predicting trade-in value and there are multiple other factors that can effect value, but I did find funny the two random cars I selected had a higher value for the older car.
The only thing they SAY it matters for is FSD. Being in the IT industry, I cant think of anything IT related that does not benefit from a faster computer. That may be my IT brain speaking, and its entirely possible that for practical purposes, processing the information faster wont matter... but I would still always lean toward the faster computer components if I had a choice.
Tesla also says "we will update anyone to HW 3 that needs it" and I get that... but we dont know (for example) if they will change suppliers etc on sensors, cameras etc etc... and they likely wont tell us. Given how the tesla business model is, I would order the absolute "freshest / latest" tesla I could. Thats just me though.
@alienranch Yes I agree we are saying pretty much the same thing. if I was in your shoes I would either wait (for my personal reasons above) or at least ensure I was getting a 2019.
I do the same thing for other manufacturers btw. During the "overlap" period, I always want the MY newer one. The X3 M40 we just got, I ordered a 2019, rather than go for the 2018s on dealer lots. More for the fact that MFRs like BMW tend to have a cutover as was said at the MY change (although not always)... but yeah depreciation was a small part of that thought, in case I want to keep the car.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Selling EAP cars while telling people the new computer won't help them so no reason to wait for it would be fraud, so it seems unlikely they are doing that.
That's funny- I can think of tons
Especially when you're not going to change the code to make any use of the new hardware.
Asteroids in any decent emulator runs exactly the same speed even if you quadruple the CPU power, to give the simplest of examples.
I wouldnt say running asteroids and running whatever has to run to run EAP is the same but I am also not into online "debates" so...
Tesla says lots of things. They also said that "everything we needed for FSD was in the cars we bought right now", and now they are upgrading them, because they found out "hey we need to upgrade to deliver on that promise". Nothing particularly wrong with that, especially since they are doing that part for free. With that being said, I dont think anyone would call it fraud if they found out that certain things ran "better / faster" on the new hardware than they thought when they specc'ed it.
People on forums might say that, but I dont think it would actually go anywhere other than PR. If I was buying now, or could wait for 2-3 months until the new hardware was standard in my car (whether I thought I was going to get FSD or not), I would wait /shrug.
I am just saying what "I" would do... I am not implying that someone who chooses otherwise is wrong (which always seems to be the assumption when people make suggestions online).
is there any difference in operation between HW 2.0 and hardware 2.5? (real question, not trolling.. I dont know). There must be some reason they updated it for something... /shrug.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Ok...the point is the same though. If the EAP-only NN is designed to run on AP2.x HW, and they don't fork the code into 2 entirely different branches (which they don't have anywhere near the manpower to do), then the new HW won't matter to EAP only cars.
Which is literally what Tesla has told us.
The FSD NN on the other hand will run on HW3, and not at all on 2.5. Hence why HW3 only matters for FSD owners. Who get it free even if the car came with 2.5.
That's why they are doing it free.
They have to.
They made a promise about capabilities when you bought something- so if they need to now add HW to keep that promise they can't charge you for it.
Likewise if HW3 was needed for anything they promised to EAP buyers they'd have to upgrade them as well for free... they're not though- which is another way to know HW3 isn't needed for EAP features.
Again, they've explicitly stated EAP doesn't need the HW. The only way that can be true is if they keep using the same NN that 2.x hardware can run. In which case no benefit from HW3 for the EAP-only NN.
2.5 changed the radar unit to provide a range of 170m instead of 160m. There's also more redundancy in the system (more important for FSD that they still hoped to manage with it- and it appears HW3 retains this redundancy)
So functionally speaking not much difference for EAP use other than 2.5 can see very slightly further ahead with radar (and no difference for FSD use since they're never going to enable it on 2.x cars)
HW3 however they've explicitly stated no change to sensor suite at all so that's not really relevant anyway.
If the SW 2.0 compile on check in system works like I think it does, they could make a separate version of EAP for the larger processor with minimal human workload. However, I think that would actually be a bad thing since EAP would then act differently depending on the type of HW a car has...
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
That's kind of my point.
If the behavior is different then they need two development branches- with a lot of human workload.
It's not just compiling it for a different CPU- it's building an entire EAP NN that can deal with the vastly different types and amounts of input that HW3 can process compared to HW 2.x.
What I think could happen is the NN they're building for HW3 will be exclusive to FSD cars- and it will certainly do all the things "just" EAP can do and more, and likely do all of them better than the EAP NN does (even where they overlap).
But those benefits will only be available to FSD buyers, regardless of if their original car had HW2.x or 3 in it from the factory....and won't be available to EAP only buyers, regardless of if their original car had HW2.x or 3 from the factory.
That's the only way that minimizes all the following:
Obligatory free HW3 upgrades
A lot of extra workload on a whole different NN (EAP specific to HW3 without FSD features)
Reasons to dismiss paying extra for FSD even if the other initial FSD features are relatively minor
Where life gets interesting (and highly speculative) might be the Model Y (or if they refresh the S/X) where maybe the stop offering "just" EAP since everything will come with HW3 by then- instead maybe just offering TACC for 2k, and FSD for 6k both prepurchase.... and 3k/8k after or something.
That does present the possibility old 2.x EAP won't see much in the way of improvements and anybody who wants major ones will need to pay for FSD (where again 2.x owners get HW3 free so no value in "waiting" for it to come with the car).... but since it sounds like they can't do much more with existing HW on 2.x other than optimizations, and other than advanced summon and not requiring confirmation for lane changes EAP is feature complete already from original promises, that's not surprising.
We are in agreement.
From the Karpathy SW 2.0 talk and other postings, it seems like they could set the NN size constraints for the better hardware and then rebuild/ recompile with that setting. The key behaviors would be the same, but the accuracy would improve. Unless the training set and goals are already optimized for 2.x HW, in which case, the larger NN wouldn't perform noticeably better... (just redundant neurons)
So I WAS going to cancel my P3D order and wait to find a 2019 (see previous posts). My IDA checked and there was not a single 2019 P3D available anywhere in the US. He would have to order one off the line. I checked with my local rep (Tesla store), as I knew he was a proven, reliable source for all things Tesla. He informed me the reason there isn’t any 2019’s available, is because only the other Model 3’s have been built so far this year, and next month would see production switch to European and Canadian spec cars, including right hand drive. P3D wouldn’t pick back up until March at the earliest, but even then couldn’t say for sure. Anyway, I said screw it and kept my current VIN for delivery next week. Just wanted to update anybody thinking of a 2019 P3D.
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