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2021 Shipping Movements

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GLOVIS CAPTAIN is now meandering off the coast of Zeebrugge waiting for her 2200 arrival this evening. The weather in the area was forecasted to be pretty bad with blowing snow reducing visibility, however it looks as though for the moment Zeebrugge has missed the worst of the weather, which is just to the north. Not much has moved at the port this morning and there are delays for all shipping. She is not due to depart until Wednesday and so I expect she will fully unload to complete her Tesla charter.

HORIZON LEADER is maintaining her rhumb line course which is keeping her well to the SE of the normal great circle track to try and avoid the worst of the Atlantic weather. She is currently 520NM NE of Puerto Rico and making 17kts.
I originally forecasted her Zeebrugge arrival to be on the 15 Feb, and you will recall that I was surprised with her estimate of 14 Feb when she departed Panama, but yesterday she revised her estimate for Zeebrugge to 16 Feb. This is no doubt a reflection of the anticipated slower speeds she will adopt due to the weather she will encounter later this week.
ETA for Zeebrugge 16 Feb.

HL Atlantic.png


GRAND RUBY remains on schedule on her passage to Panama maintaining 19kts and is presently 130 NM SSE of Acapulco
There are no weather concerns for her at the moment.
She is due to arrive off Panama on Wednesday evening and I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 23 Feb.

The GRAND RUBY competition is still open. if you haven't entered yet, I suggest you give it a try - it's free and easy and the less said about the prizes the better. ENTER HERE!

GrandRubyPac.png


GLOVIS COMPANION is the final stages of departing from Pier 80. She has updated her AIS to show an ETA for the Panama Canal of 15 Feb. My ETA for her in Zeebrugge of 28 Feb stands.
I smell the whiff of a new competition in the offing….

LAKE GENEVA is due to arrive alongside Pier 80 on 10 Feb. I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 7 Mar

GLOVIS SIRIUS will arrive at Pier 80 on 16 Feb. She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and I suspect probably the last ship of Q1 to Europe. I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 12 Mar

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
She continues to make about 17kts and is now in the central belt of the Red Sea about 100NM NW of Jeddah. She is due to arrive in Suez tomorrow and I estimate Southampton around 18 Feb.

Century to Suez.png


MORNING CELLO I suspect this ship may be heading to the UK with Tesla Model 3s onboard too.
I have still not received a satellite-derived position report from her and so I have estimated her position on the chart. She is due to arrive in in Suez on 12 Feb and my estimate for her arrival in Southampton is 21 Feb.

Morn Cello Sin Suez.png


TORONTO has left the Straits of Malacca and is presently just N of Banda Aceh. She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Feb but may have a stop in Athens (which makes me wonder if this is really a Tesla ship).

TORONTO SinSuez.png


MORNING CAPO This ship has all the hallmarks of being a Tesla ship and departed Shanghai on Wednesday enroute to Singapore where she is due to arrive on Tuesday morning, probably just to refuel. She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar
 
Despite the low number of entries in the GRAND RUBY Competition (thank you to those who have responded to my appeal earlier today) it's time to open the GLOVIS COMPANION competition!
Same rules and virtually the same prizes - actually virtual prizes! You can enter both competitions.

All you have to do is, using your skill and judgement, decide where GLOVIS COMPANION will be at MiddayZ on 22 Feb 21.
It's free, quick and simple to enter and there is no prize. It's just a bit of fun!
Only 1 entry per person.
In the event of a tie, the person who chose the closest minor gridsquare first will be declared the winner.
The competition will close when GLOVIS COMPANION enters the Panama Canal.

Atlantic Major Squares.png


Click to ENTER THE GLOVIS COMPANION COMPETITION
 
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It looks like GLOVIS CAPTAIN is making her approach into Zeebrugge. It will be a good hour or so before she is alongside as there is a lock to go through to get access to the inner harbour where she will dock. It's -3C there at the moment, forecast to get colder, and it's windy making the wind chill a real factor to content with.

Meanwhile off San Francisco, a long way off, is GLOVIS COMPANION. She needs to go left a bit if she is to arrive off the Panama Canal by the 15th. She left the Golden Gate bridge and has just gone straight on - that's not the way to go.

Screenshot 2021-02-07 at 21.37.34.png


It looks to me that she is anxious to get at least 200NM off the California coast where the rules about what she can discharge into the sea and atmosphere change (for the worst).
 
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These RoRo ships traditionally use the cheapest fuel available - heavy fuel oil. This is a residue from a crude oil distillation process. It's dirty and dangerously polluting particularly with regard to sulphur.
It's interesting to see when air quality is measured how poor the air quality is at places that are close to the English Channel -that fresh sea air ain't so fresh, and shipping is the reason.

New regulations came in to force in 2020 in an effort to significantly reduce reduce sulphur emissions from ships.
Sulphur 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions
So some ships can still use the cheap heavy fuel oil as long as they have a scrubber fitted to the exhaust system otherwise the ships will have been converted to run on a low sulphur fuel oil or marine gas oil as it is now called.
So all well and good then.... Mmmm, maybe not.

So what happens to the sulphur that has been removed from the exhaust by the scrubber?
A scrubber is not a cheap device and there are essentially 3 systems on the market, a closed loop system, an open loop system and a hybrid system.

The closed loop system collects the sulphur into a storage tank for dedicated safe disposal when in port. It's the more expensive option which is why only 65 ships worldwide have one fitted.
The cheapest system (£1.5m per ship and upwards) collects the pollutants in a liquid form and then discharges it into the sea - an open loop system. Now you don't need to be a bearded sandal wearing eco warrior to spot the flaw with this. Yes the air is cleaner however the ships are now discharging into the sea a lot of very acidic, warm, polluted water. I say a lot, because for every ton of fuel burned, 45 tons of the contaminated washwater is discharged.
Authorities around the world are banning ships that use an open loop system from their waters because they can see the damage that is being caused by them. China is one of them. China!
There is no EU ruling and so individual countries are having to impose restrictions to their waters. Belgium, Ireland and Germany have taken the lead so far.

The hybrid system is the result. The pollutants are stored onboard until clear of the controlled waters and then discharged.
Now think about where the UK, with no rules, sits geographically and where ships are likely to empty their accumulated waste.....

The US have strict rules too, and it's my guess that GLOVIS COMPANION is planning to do her dirty business outside the US regulated area. This is the first Tesla chartered ship I have seen do this so openly.
 
These RoRo ships traditionally use the cheapest fuel available - heavy fuel oil. This is a residue from a crude oil distillation process. It's dirty and dangerously polluting particularly with regard to sulphur.
It's interesting to see when air quality is measured how poor the air quality is at places that are close to the English Channel -that fresh sea air ain't so fresh, and shipping is the reason.

New regulations came in to force in 2020 in an effort to significantly reduce reduce sulphur emissions from ships.
Sulphur 2020 – cutting sulphur oxide emissions
So some ships can still use the cheap heavy fuel oil as long as they have a scrubber fitted to the exhaust system otherwise the ships will have been converted to run on a low sulphur fuel oil or marine gas oil as it is now called.
So all well and good then.... Mmmm, maybe not.

So what happens to the sulphur that has been removed from the exhaust by the scrubber?
A scrubber is not a cheap device and there are essentially 3 systems on the market, a closed loop system, an open loop system and a hybrid system.

The closed loop system collects the sulphur into a storage tank for dedicated safe disposal when in port. It's the more expensive option which is why only 65 ships worldwide have one fitted.
The cheapest system (£1.5m per ship and upwards) collects the pollutants in a liquid form and then discharges it into the sea - an open loop system. Now you don't need to be a bearded sandal wearing eco warrior to spot the flaw with this. Yes the air is cleaner however the ships are now discharging into the sea a lot of very acidic, warm, polluted water. I say a lot, because for every ton of fuel burned, 45 tons of the contaminated washwater is discharged.
Authorities around the world are banning ships that use an open loop system from their waters because they can see the damage that is being caused by them. China is one of them. China!
There is no EU ruling and so individual countries are having to impose restrictions to their waters. Belgium, Ireland and Germany have taken the lead so far.

The hybrid system is the result. The pollutants are stored onboard until clear of the controlled waters and then discharged.
Now think about where the UK, with no rules, sits geographically and where ships are likely to empty their accumulated waste.....

The US have strict rules too, and it's my guess that GLOVIS COMPANION is planning to do her dirty business outside the US regulated area. This is the first Tesla chartered ship I have seen do this so openly.
What a disgrace all of this really!!!!
Makes me a bit sick that my fancy and really “can’t wait” car is contributing to this... :(:(:(
 
HORIZON LEADER competition.

The results are in!

We didn't have a direct hit in this competition.
At 1200z today the ship was located in Grid Square F6 and within its Minor Square 5

The closest, and therefore the winning, entry was @Lavrik (F6 12) who was just 185 NM off target. (Distance measured from the centre of the chosen square to the ship's position at midday)
In 2nd place was @ABCTG (G5 12) who was a mere 230NM off target.
In 3rd place was @Turntable666 (G5 7) who was 282NM off target.

Congratulations to all, but there isn't so much as even a cuddly toy to win!


Some trivia for you:

The most popular GridSquare was I3
The most popular Minor Square overall was 13
If you had chosen that combination, which nobody did, you would have ended up 1047NM off target.
 
HORIZON LEADER competition.

The results are in!

We didn't have a direct hit in this competition.
At 1200z today the ship was located in Grid Square F6 and within its Minor Square 5

The closest, and therefore the winning, entry was @Lavrik (F6 12) who was just 185 NM off target. (Distance measured from the centre of the chosen square to the ship's position at midday)
In 2nd place was @ABCTG (G5 12) who was a mere 230NM off target.
In 3rd place was @Turntable666 (G5 7) who was 282NM off target.

Congratulations to all, but there isn't so much as even a cuddly toy to win!


Some trivia for you:

The most popular GridSquare was I3
The most popular Minor Square overall was 13
If you had chosen that combination, which nobody did, you would have ended up 1047NM off target.
Arrgh so close, third place ,happy with that. Put a smile on my face for the day..
 
GLOVIS CAPTAIN arrived alongside Zeebrugge around midnight Z last night. She is not due to depart until Wednesday and so I expect she will unload completely to complete her Tesla charter. Zeebrugge has been pretty lucky with the weather - it’s cold but she hasn’t been hammered with the blizzard conditions areas just to the north have.

HORIZON LEADER is maintaining her rhumb line course which is keeping her well to the SE of the normal great circle track to try and avoid the worst of the Atlantic weather. She will encounter some heavy weather towards the end of the week.
ETA for Zeebrugge 16 Feb.

HL Atlantic.png


GRAND RUBY remains on schedule on her passage to Panama maintaining 17kts and is presently 180 NM SW off the coast of Guatemala.
There are no weather concerns for her at the moment.
She is due to arrive off Panama on Wednesday evening and I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 23 Feb.

The GRAND RUBY competition is still open. ENTER HERE!

GrandRubyPac.png


GLOVIS COMPANION departed Pier 80 around 1430Z yesterday and promptly headed out to sea - well out to sea, like 200NM out to sea. This is very unusual behaviour and I strongly suspect she did this to make a discharge that would be illegal to do within 200NM of the US coast.
Facilities for the safe disposal of hazardous by-products are available in San Francisco, albeit at a price. Alternatively, you can go out to sea and just dump it overboard, the option this vessel has taken. It must have been very urgent too.

Her ETA for the Panama Canal is 15 Feb. My ETA for her in Zeebrugge of 28 Feb stands.

I don’t like this ship….
I have renamed the competition to ’Sink the Glovis Companion!”
Decide which square to lay your minefield. You can have 3 entries! A direct hit is required to win. Enter HERE.

Companion ECA Avoid.png


LAKE GENEVA is due to arrive alongside Pier 80 on 10 Feb. I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 7 Mar

GLOVIS SIRIUS will arrive at Pier 80 on 16 Feb. She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and I suspect probably the last ship of Q1 to Europe. I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 12 Mar

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
She continues to make about 17kts and has now entered the Gulf of Suez. She is due to arrive at Port Said later this evening and I estimate Southampton around 18 Feb.

Century to Suez.png


MORNING CELLO I suspect this ship may be heading to the UK with Tesla Model 3s onboard too.
I finally received 2 satellite-derived position reports from her this morning which placed her entering the Gulf Of Aden. She is maintaining 18.5 kts which puts her well ahead of schedule. She is due to arrive at Suez on 12 Feb and my estimate for her arrival in Southampton is 21 Feb.

Morn Cello Sin Suez.png


TORONTO is presently crossing the Bay of Bengal at a rather lethargic 13.5kts. I will monitor her speed over the next 24 hrs. The weather is fine. She is due to arrive at the entrance to the Suez Canal on 19 Feb and Zeebrugge on 3 Mar but may have a stop in Athens (which makes me wonder if this is really a Tesla ship).

TORONTO SinSuez.png


MORNING CAPO This ship has all the hallmarks of being a Tesla ship and departed Shanghai on Wednesday enroute to Singapore where she is due to arrive tomorrow morning, probably just to refuel. She is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar.
 
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