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2021 Shipping Movements

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Since both Israel (LHD) and Singapore (RHD) are now Tesla countries what impact on shipping will there be. Am I correct to assume that Singapore bound vehicles might be offloaded while refueling is happening for UK-bound cars? Since UAE and Israel now have diplomatic relations there are now Jebel Ali-Haifa container ships. Presumably Tesla carriers could do the same. Is that likely?

I know this question is not UK-specific, so sorry about being OT.
 
Since both Israel (LHD) and Singapore (RHD) are now Tesla countries what impact on shipping will there be. Am I correct to assume that Singapore bound vehicles might be offloaded while refueling is happening for UK-bound cars? Since UAE and Israel now have diplomatic relations there are now Jebel Ali-Haifa container ships. Presumably Tesla carriers could do the same. Is that likely?

I know this question is not UK-specific, so sorry about being OT.

No offloading at Singapore seen for UK/EU bound ships. The ships stay offshore for refuelling. There have been quite a few departures from Shanghai for Singapore which I have not been tracking, the latest being GRAND HERO which departed earlier today. She will be heading to Europe but is another slow boat from China calling at several ports on the way. I don't think she is likely to be carrying Tesla cargo. One ship that may be worth keeping an eye on however is TOKYO CAR which is heading to Australia via Singapore. The puzzling thing is that RHD production in Shanghai stopped a couple of weeks ago and so if this ship is carrying, the cars have been sitting around waiting for a couple of weeks, which is unusual for Tesla. @Vedaprime is keeping an eye on this ship from the Australian end and so if this is the first RoRo to Oz with MIC Model 3s we should find out pretty quickly.
I haven't yet found out how the Israeli vehicles are being shipped (they are 5YJ) and I have been looking. At the moment it seems possible that they are onboard GLOVIS CAPTAIN. She is going to do some pick up's around N Europe before heading to the Middle East next. At the moment she is due in Barcelona on 26 Feb and Aqaba on 4 Mar. If she keeps to that schedule I can't see her being able to pop-in to Ashdod or Haifa but schedules change and this stop may not be an advertised one, but we shall see. The dates look about right though.
I'm not too concerned about the restoration of diplomatic relations being a factor. When the UAE and Saudi ganged up against Qatar, all air and freight links between the countries were severed except for the RoRo's! (and the cruise ships) They continued as if there was no embargo - no, I can't explain it either, like many other things in this region...

The next ship, HORIZON LEADER, is heading down to S Africa next, so we can say that she won't be delivering them.
 
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...They continued as if there was no embargo - no, I can't explain it either, like many other things in this region...
My experience is quite old but I know most embargo actions in the region have always had quite prolifically used tactics to alter apparent intent. Cyprus is not so active as it once was.
Reshipments have been lucrative for some.

FWIW I spent a decade facilitating trade in the region.
 
News on 11 ships today!
TORONTO departed to Singapore yesterday and is due to arrive there next Friday (5th) TORONTO is due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 26 Feb but may have a stop in Athens (which makes me wonder if this is really a Tesla ship).

Which models would Toronto be carrying to Europe? I believe that they only Tesla MIC currently exported to Europe are the RHD TM3's right? So wouldn't make sense to send them to Zeerbugge, correct?

I believe that there was no plan to export any more LHD TM3 or any TMY to Europe from Shanghai.
 
Which models would Toronto be carrying to Europe? I believe that they only Tesla MIC currently exported to Europe are the RHD TM3's right? So wouldn't make sense to send them to Zeerbugge, correct?

I believe that there was no plan to export any more LHD TM3 or any TMY to Europe from Shanghai.
You have raised a very good point but the 'plan' was only a rumour.
Nevertheless I'm aware that all RHD M3 are now coming from Shanghai.
I'm also aware that all the ships departing Pier 80 are carrying only LHD for EU and Switzerland.
I have been a little wary of TORONTO carrying anything because of her itinerary but I was waiting to see if there was any MIC European VIN allocations before striking her off the list.
MORNING CAPO looks more likely to be a Tesla ship but again I have yet to see any of the expected VIN activity. I was also a little surprised at the absence of any video from China featuring the ships.
I am slowly coming to the conclusion that neither of them have any Model 3s on board.
I will continue to track them until they arrive in the Med but if there is no MIC VINs hitting the inventories by then I shall remove them.
 
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These RoRo ships traditionally use the cheapest fuel available - heavy fuel oil. This is a residue from a crude oil distillation process. It's dirty and dangerously polluting particularly with regard to sulphur.
It's interesting to see when air quality is measured how poor the air quality is at places that are close to the English Channel -that fresh sea air ain't so fresh, and shipping is the reason..

If you're ever in Vancouver BC, the Kinder Morgan terminal exports sulfur removed the oil sands deposits. There's a mountain of elemental sulfur right on the water:

upload_2021-2-8_15-19-55.png


Note the rail cars full of sulfur. It's really quite a beautiful color. When they're unloading the rail cars it's a lovely shower of yellow pellets. I had a project at the terminal and by the end of every week my rental car reeked of it.
 
This popped up in my news feed. It's old news, but a topic of interest here:

Ship Carrying Luxury Cars Ran Aground


In Feb 19 the GOLDEN RAY docked at Pier 80 and loaded its precious Tesla cargo and departed for China.
This was a comparatively new ship entering service in 2017, benefitting from a modern bridge and all the advantages that modern computer technology can bring. Although like many other pure vehicle carriers she was 200 metres long she was a bit wider at just over 35 metres. That extra width allowed her to carry up to 7700 cars. She left Pier 80 on 13 Feb 19 and arrived safely in Shanghai on 1 Mar 19.

On 8 Sep 19 the GOLDEN RAY was leaving Brunswick, Georgia en route to Baltimore. She had onboard about 4500 Kia and Hyundai cars and as she entered the Atlantic she started to list. In an action reminscent of the HOEGH OSAKA incident in the Solent in Jan 2015, the local pilot immediately steered the vessel towards shallow water to prevent a total capsize. 23 crew members were rescued unharmed although for 3 of them trapped in the engine room with an uncontrolled fire it was a close run thing. The HOEGH OSAKA was refloated by the salvage company, subsequently repaired and quickly returned to service. That's not the case with the GOLDEN RAY - it's still at the mouth of the river, lying on it's side. It is being totally dismantled in situ.

The US NTSB has yet to report on the GOLDEN RAY accident but the UK Maritime Accident Investigation Branch has issued its report on the HOEGH OSAKA incident which is an interesting read.

Vehicle carriers do not have a good safety record. The accidents and incidents can be largely grouped into 2 different cause groups - Fire and Instability.

Let’s look at fires first of all. 5 major fires since January 2019 that I am aware of:

January 2019 SINCERITY ACE caught fire whilst crossing the Pacific with 3500 Nissans on board. 5 Crewman died

March 2019 GRANDE AMERICA caught fire and sank in the Bay of Biscay

May 2019 GRANDE EUROPA caught fire whilst off the Spanish coast in the Mediterranean. It had no less than 2 separate fires in brand new vehicles within the space of 4 hours.

June 2019 DIAMOND HIGHWAY was abandoned in the South China Sea because of a fire onboard.

June 2020 HOEGH XIAMEN caught fire whilst loading at Jacksonville Florida. Despite the fire service being on scene very quickly and using drones with IR cameras to detect hot spots, the ship continued to burn for days and was a total loss. This fire was very concerning since if a fire cannot be extinguished when alongside with the benefit of a fully equipped fire service using fire boats and all the latest technology, what chance would it have at sea?

The causation of most of these fires is put down to car batteries, that’s normal ICE 12V car batteries on brand new cars. No, I don’t suppose you read about these horrific incidents in the Daily Mail since they didn’t involve a Tesla.

The other major issue with these ships is their stability or rather potential instability. Generally there are 2 reasons for stability issues the first of which is water ingress and the second is failing to ballast or trim the vessel properly. Occasionally the latter leads to the former.

Typing the following incidents into a search engine will produce an eye-opening read.

Dec 02 TRICOLOR Enroute from Zeebrugge to Southampton sank following collision. Notoriously hit twice more by 2 different vessels.

Jul 06 COUGAR ACE Developed a severe list

Dec 12 BALTIC ACE 11 died following a collision

Jan 15 HOEGH OSAKA Developed a severe list

Jan 16 MODERN EXPRESS Severe list

Sep 19 GOLDEN RAY Capsized

The American NTSB report on the GOLDEN RAY is yet to be published, however there were some US Coastguard hearings in September last year from which you can get a very good idea of what went on.

Additionally @XHabjab posted here a very informative post with links to updates on the GOLDEN RAY accident.
 
Wow wow, woop woop! Was super busy yesterday throwing a party after my big win!

Just wanted to say, huge thanks to @Mr Miserable for a great thread, I got here by accident, and actually my ship (GLOVIS Captain) is already at Zeebrugge, but this is so entertaining and so exiting to spend some time reading your posts! And yeh, the competition - it just make you feel like a little kid, super exited and curious: “oh how did I do!” Getting this much fun is biggest present! However I would suggest one addition to this amazing competition, if it isn’t too much work, you may consider posting a complete result list or “shooting map”, that would be so much fun to “zoom in” and look up your results!)
 
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Wow wow, woop woop! Was super busy yesterday throwing a party after my big win!

Just wanted to say, huge thanks to @Mr Miserable for a great thread, I got here by accident, and actually my ship (GLOVIS Captain) is already at Zeebrugge, but this is so entertaining and so exiting to spend some time reading your posts! And yeh, the competition - it just make you feel like a little kid, super exited and curious: “oh how did I do!” Getting this much fun is biggest present! However I would suggest one addition to this amazing competition, if it isn’t too much work, you may consider posting a complete result list or “shooting map”, that would be so much fun to “zoom in” and look up your results!)

I'm glad you have found the ship tracking experience to be entertaining, that is the aim of this thread - to freely provide the most accurate shipping info available packaged with engaging background content to enhance the wait for your car. Thanks for the suggestions on how to improve the competition. I improved the competition results process this quarter by largely automating it - faster and very accurate results with next to no effort from me! The next stage would be to provide a map showing how close you were but with entries this quarter dropping to below 100, it's not worth the effort unfortunately. I also don't wish to embarass those who clearly have no idea of geography despite me labelling Panama and Zeebrugge on the map and providing guidance that the ship will move from bottom left to top right of the map! There are also limits to what can be done without moving to a dedicated website, which I will not do.

In the meantime the best thing to do is to keep entering! The GRAND RUBY competition and the GLOVIS COMPANION competition are still open. The latter competition is a little different in view of the ship's blatant polluting!
 
HORIZON LEADER continues on her easterly course towards Madeira which is keeping her well to the south of the normal great circle track to try and avoid the worst of the Atlantic weather. She could continue this for another couple of days before she will have to turn to the north coinciding with the arrival of some heavy weather. Nevertheless, this weather avoidance has proved to be a good strategy so far.
ETA for Zeebrugge 16 Feb.

HL Atlantic.png


GRAND RUBY remains on schedule, maintaining around 17kts and is presently south of Costa Rica.
She is due to arrive off Panama tomorrow evening and I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 23 Feb.

The GRAND RUBY competition is still open. ENTER HERE!
I remind you that the competition will close when she enters the Panama Canal.

GrandRubyPac.png


The noxious GLOVIS COMPANION maintained a distance of 200NM from the US coast throughout yesterday but is now closing in on the normal course to Panama. She is making 18.7kts in order to make up the time lost by heading so far out to sea. Additionally along the coast there is a strong southbound current which helps save fuel on this leg which this ship will not have been benefitting from. My ETA for her in Zeebrugge of 28 Feb.

’Sink the Glovis Companion!”
Decide which square to lay your minefield. You can have 3 entries! A direct hit is required to win. Enter HERE.

Glov Comp Pac Prog.png


LAKE GENEVA will arrive alongside Pier 80 later today at 1700 local. I have her pencilled in to arrive in Zeebrugge on 7 Mar

GLOVIS SIRIUS will arrive at Pier 80 on 16 Feb. She will be the biggest ship of Q1 and I suspect probably the last ship of Q1 to Europe.
I have pencilled her in to arrive in Zeebrugge around 12 Mar.

I was hoping that the San Francisco port schedule would have been updated by now which would have told us if any further ships are expected this quarter but unfortunately it hasn’t. In my opinion then, GLOVIS SIRIUS will be the last ship to EU for Q1.

GLOVIS CENTURY I’m pretty confident that this ship is loaded with the first MIC RHD Model 3s for UK and Ireland.
She arrived at the Suez anchorage last night and early this morning began her transit of the Suez Canal. I am eagerly waiting for her AIS to be updated with her destination and ETA when she emerges into the Mediterranean Sea in a few hours time. Unlike Panama there is no webcam coverage of the canal. In the meantime, I estimate Southampton around 18 Feb.

MORNING CELLO I suspect this ship may be heading to the UK with Tesla Model 3s onboard too.
She is still maintaining over 18.5 kts as she approaches the Bab al Mandab Strait at the southern entrance of the Red Sea. She is scheduled to arrive at Suez on 12 Feb and my current estimate for her arrival in Southampton is 21 Feb. She is ahead of schedule at the moment.

Morn Cello Sin Suez.png


I will continue to loosely monitor the following ships that are routing from Shanghai to Zeebrugge for a few more days but there has been a conspicuous absence of any supporting evidence emerging that they have Teslas onboard.

TORONTO due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 3 Mar, currently S of India enroute to Suez.

MORNING CAPO due to arrive in Zeebrugge on 6 Mar, currently anchored off Singapore.
 
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Tesla have now assigned a VIN number for my M3 LR AWD which they say is on route from Shanghai due to arrive at Southampton on 18 February.

So looks like comments suggesting that the U.K. is receiving made in China Model 3s is correct.

I’m interested to see if my car will include all of the hardware that seems to be included on MIC cars I’ll save the details of this for another thread.
 
Tesla have now assigned a VIN number for my M3 LR AWD which they say is on route from Shanghai due to arrive at Southampton on 18 February.

So looks like comments suggesting that the U.K. is receiving made in China Model 3s is correct.

I’m interested to see if my car will include all of the hardware that seems to be included on MIC cars I’ll save the details of this for another thread.

I think my M3 LR is on that ship too :) I'm interested to know what hardware you mean - heated steering wheel?
 
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Yay! The Tesla rep said the system was showing early March for my delivery, so now I'm suspicious that my car is on either of GLOVIS CENTURY or MORNING CELLO. Does anyone know how long it takes to move the cars to different sites through the UK?
The Tesla rep is assuming you will want a 21 plate. If you want it earlier you need to make that clear to them, but that's for discussion on another thread!
 
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