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2021 Shipping Movements

M3LR21

Member
May 10, 2021
7
3
Sheffield
One of the above 3 ships from Shanghai will probably be scheduled to call in at Ashdod, Israel - if conditions allow.
Thanks for all the info - very interesting and informative to follow. Might that be the reason why there's a difference between your ETA for when the Glovis Sun might reach Zeebrugge and the port schedule?
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,563
8,508
UK
LAKE FUXION competition.

The results are in!

We didn't have a direct hit in this competition.
At 1200z today the ship was located in Grid Square E5 and within its Minor Square 16

The closest, and therefore the winning, entry was @NEF11 (D5 15) who was just 62 NM off target. (Distance measured from the centre of the chosen square to the ship's position at midday)
In 2nd place was @Daniel69 (D5 5) who was a mere 175 NM off target.
In 3rd place was @ReisaM3Y (F5 7) who was 356 NM off target.

Congratulations to all, but there isn't so much as even a cuddly toy to win!

Some trivia for you:
The most popular Major Square was G4
The most popular Minor Square overall was 7
If you had chosen that combination, which two people did, you would have ended up 719 NM off target.

The 24hr delay to LAKE FUXIAN’s canal transit appears to have caught many of you (and me!) out with the bulk of entries expecting the ship to be about 400 NM north east of her current position.

You can remedy the situation by entering the GLOVIS CHORUS competition now. ENTER HERE
For some reason this competition has not attracted many entries so far and the flip side to that is that you have a much better chance of winning, nothing.
 
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Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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Thanks for all the info - very interesting and informative to follow. Might that be the reason why there's a difference between your ETA for when the Glovis Sun might reach Zeebrugge and the port schedule?
There is no evidence yet to support that at the moment and the difference is a bit too large in my opinion. The Zeebrugge port schedule is not always as accurate as you might want it to be and I suspect that the schedule will change in due course.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
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GLOVIS CENTURY has just departed Pier 80 bound for .......?
Her AIS has still not been updated.
It's misty and there is low cloud hanging over the San Francisco Bay at the moment.

Screenshot 2021-05-14 at 16.27.47.png



Passing below the almost invisible Golden Gate Bridge

Screenshot 2021-05-14 at 16.49.00.png
 
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Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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UK
It's still a guessing game as to where GLOVIS CENTURY has departed to since her AIS has still not been updated.
If she had turned on to a southerly heading after dropping off her harbour pilot I think it would be safe to assume she was heading for Panama but she hasn't.
There are effectively 3 departure routes for ships departing San Francisco, one to the northwest, one to the south and one to the SW and this is the one she has chosen. It could be that she wants to get clear of the coastal fog and heading out to sea will do the trick.
Anyway we shall have to wait a little longer to see where she heads off to....

Screenshot 2021-05-14 at 18.13.30.png
 
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Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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GLOVIS CHORUS is presently making her way up the Gulf of Panama and will arrive off the entrance to the Canal later tonight.
She will drop her anchor and wait for her turn to enter the canal. I'm expecting her to be part of tomorrow morning's northbound wave which will set off in the wee small hours (local time).

The first indication of something happening will be the arrival alongside her of a canal pilot. He will board the ship and she will then head up towards the first set of locks, the Miraflores locks. This is the first of a set of two locks which will lift the ship a total of 54ft. After Miraflores the ship will motor the short distance to the second set of locks, the Pedro Miguel Locks which will lift the ship the final 31ft. The ship will now be level with Gatun lake and she can make her way to the final set of locks, the Gatun locks which will then lower the ship 85ft to the Caribbean in 3 stages.

The Panama Canal provides a shortcut for shipping travelling from the Pacific Ocean to the Atlantic Ocean and vice-versa. Instead of having to route to the south of South America and then back up, a distance of about 10,000 nm the canal offers a mere 51 mile transit. This comes at a big (well into 6 figures USD) price, calculated by a complicated formula, designed to maximise revenue to the canal operators. The original canal opened in 1914 and was an immediate success. In the first year it handled about 1000 ships and by 2008 it was handling nearly 15,000. These figures alone don’t tell the whole story because ships were getting bigger and bigger and one of the limits to the size of ships being built was the size of the locks in the Panama Canal. Ships that were built to fit (just) into the locks were described as Panamax ships. That is why so many cruise ships, container ships and car carriers are 32.3m wide and have a draft of under 12.6m.

The expansion of global trade and the increase in shipping meant that the canal was becoming a bottleneck with frequent delays and queues of ships waiting to transit. Fees for queue jumping became ever more expensive and ever more necessary to avoid delays. Alternatives to the canal were seriously being considered eg the NW passage and a number of alternative canal routes that avoided Panama completely. Panama relies on the income from the canal and could not afford for any of the alternatives plans to be viable and so the plan for the expansion to the existing canal system was commenced in 2007 and completed in 2016. This introduced two new sets of locks built parallel to the existing locks. Significantly, they now allow ships up to 366m long, 49m wide and with a draft of up to 15m to transit the canal. The new locks are of a modern design which use less water and are regarded as safer and more reliable too.

So a Panamax ship like GLOVIS CHORUS will use the old locks - Miraflores, Pedro Miguel and Gatun locks to transit whereas bigger ships like GLOVIS SUN have to use the new locks at Cocoli and Agua Clara.

The canal is big business and so is generally a pretty slick operation entirely dependent on how much you have paid. The Tesla ships are normally booked in several weeks in advance and are given a pretty high priority. Delays of more than 24 hours are rare and normally we can expect the ships to start their northbound transit in the small hours of the morning and be in the Caribbean around 8 hours later.

There are webcams at the locks so you can watch the ships going through. The link to the webcams are here (I'm having a problem with the Miraflores camera but the others seem OK) There are plenty of youtube videos and documentaries on the canal, its operation and construction, many of which are very good.

For GLOVIS CHORUS I will expect her to arrive at Miraflores lock around 7 am UK time tomorrow morning.

cfabbfa9-7989-4d9f-82b9-fdbe12efee8a-png.582713




Thanks to @Mister J for providing the above graphic.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
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UK
Over in Shanghai, MORNING CLARA has just departed. She is expected to arrive in Sydney at the end of the month with a load of Model 3s.
 

VanillaAir_UK

Supporting Member
Jun 17, 2019
7,737
5,196
Surrey, UK
Moderator comment - please keep this thread specific to shipping movements - there are other threads for discussing VINs, deliveries, test drives, where is my car etc

Posts not related to shipping movements, ie ships that sail the seas, may be deleted without warning and repeat offenders accounts limited.
 
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Mr Miserable

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Jul 8, 2019
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GLOVIS CHORUS is making good progress through the Panama Canal.
Here she is exiting the Pedro Miguel locks.
She has been lifted a total of 85 feet this morning and will now head for Gatun Lake and Gatun locks for the descent into the Caribbean.

Screenshot 2021-05-15 at 10.43.51.png
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
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UK
With GLOVIS CENTURY heading down the Californian coast, it must be time for the:

GLOVIS CENTURY competition!

For those who are new here, I do these fun competitions for every ship on the Pier 80 - Zeebrugge run. The idea is to see if you can guess, using your skill and judgement, where the ship will be at the designated time in the future. There is no prize, it's just a bit of fun. You can scroll back in this thread to see previous competitions and results.

All you have to do is decide where GLOVIS CENTURY will be at Midday UTC on 28 May 2021. She should be in the Atlantic Ocean and I have divided the area into squares. Choose a square (preferably a blue one). Each of those big squares is subdivided into 25 smaller ones and you have to choose one. Click HERE to enter - it's free and easy to enter using your forum username only.

Only one entry per person.
The competition will close as soon as GLOVIS CENTURY enters the Panama Canal.
There is no prize!
The winner will be the person who chooses the closest small square first.

Just CLICK HERE and give it a go! Simple!

The big squares
Atlantic Major Squares.png





The minor squares
Minor Squares.png
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,563
8,508
UK
LAKE FUXIAN continues to make good progress across the Atlantic.
She has about 2750 NM to go to Zeebrugge and will easily arrive there next Saturday
The North Atlantic weather forecast continues to be fair.
Her ETA for Zeebrugge is 22 May

Fuxian Atlantic.png


GLOVIS CHORUS is currently in the Panama Canal.
She will arrive in the Caribbean in a few hours time.
My estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge is around 27 May however once she leaves the canal this afternoon she will reveal her estimate.

GLOVIS CENTURY departed Pier 80 yesterday morning (local)
She belatedly updated her AIS to show that she is heading for the Panama Canal with an ETA of 23 May.
This is 24hrs later than I would have expected and so accordingly I have adjusted my estimate for her arrival in Zeebrugge to 5 Jun

Observant readers will note that on departure she made her way to a position over 200 NM off the coast before turning south.
This puts her outside the US Emissions Control Area which severely restricts what the ship can discharge.
One can therefore assume she is dumping nasty stuff into the sea, which is sad.
I must stress though it’s not illegal but then, neither is seal clubbing.
I’m sure Elon wouldn’t approve especially since the ship has just left a port where the stuff could have been safely disposed of by a contractor (at a price). Instead he is paying for the diversion out to sea to dump the stuff. It’s arguably cost Tesla an extra day. I wonder whether her departure was timed to arrive at the dumping site in darkness?
If I was Elon, I would be on the phone.


The GLOVIS CENTURY competition is now open ENTER HERE

GL CENTURY Pac.png


GLOVIS SUN is bound for the Suez Canal from Shanghai with an ETA there of 18 May.
She is still in the Gulf of Aden but is now heading for the Bab al-Mandab Strait.
She has about 80 NM to go and then she will have entered the Red Sea.
My ETA for her in Zeebrugge is 28 May and possibly Southampton around 31 May.
The Zeebrugge Port Schedule is showing her arriving there on 4 Jun.

GL SUN to Suez.png



LAKE GENEVA is enroute to Suez with an ETA of 27 May.
She is still maintaining 17kts heading for a point to the south of Sri Lanka.
The weather off SW India is not particularly pleasant at the moment and I'll take another look at that tomorrow but at the moment weatherwise she is fine.
I estimate that she will arrive at Zeebrugge around 6 Jun.

Geneva to Suez.png


HYPERION RAY is the ship that I believe will be coming to Southampton.
She is routing non-stop to Suez and is currently in the South China Sea making 16kts.
I expect her to arrive in Southampton around 8 Jun.


Hyp Ray S China Sea.png

One of the above 3 ships from Shanghai will probably be scheduled to call in at Ashdod, Israel - if conditions allow.

NORTHERN HIGHWAY is no longer of interest

Satellite data supplied courtesy of marinetraffic
 
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G00NERJ

Member
May 5, 2021
62
24
Norway
EB0758A6-2101-453F-B053-337A6533A46C.png
This guy believes that boats coming to Norway on the western side use the ports of Tananger and Bergen… which makes sense because it would be a massive undertaking getting all the cars across country on transporters.. I think I’ll have to keep an eye on tanager since it’sthe local one for Stavanger.
 
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Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,563
8,508
UK
Yes that's true.
They have been used particularly when approaching the end of a quarter, Oslo too, but Drammen is still the main port of entry.
 
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Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,563
8,508
UK
GLOVIS CHORUS enjoyed an easy passage through the Panama Canal and is now in the Caribbean.
Sadly her AIS has not been updated so no ETA for Zeebrugge
She has now changed course and is routing to the Mona Passage where she will enter the Atalantic in a couple of days time.
 

Mr Miserable

Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
4,563
8,508
UK
The guy on Twitter, Morten. He reckons they’ll come via Bremehaven possibly
Did he mention train? They have gone by rail before too.
There may be some on the dockside at Drammen already - we will have to wait to see until Monday since nothing happens there on a weekend.
 

G00NERJ

Member
May 5, 2021
62
24
Norway
Did he mention train? They have gone by rail before too.
There may be some on the dockside at Drammen already - we will have to wait to see until Monday since nothing happens there on a weekend.
No he didn’t mention train.. there are an awful lot of Tesla’s in the stavanger area and they’re only getting more popular with how cheap they are so I would imagine there will be a boat load literally coming.. sounds like via Germany. I’ll keep an eye on it. I did watch the webcam at Drammen but I don’t see any model 3’s on the dock side
 

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