I don't think so. I don't believe the cars being delivered in November actually exist at the moment.
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2021 Shipping Movements
- Thread starter Mr Miserable
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ByeByeJohnny
Active Member
At the end of Q2 (late June) it sure looked like they were actually already in the process of sending cars to the first ship going to Europe. Pretty sure that ship didn't leave until a few days into Q3 though. This was speculated quite a bit on in the investors threads because it would have an affect on delivery numbers. Which has an affect on share price.
But that one time is the exception so far. If it happens again this week it's a trend.
But yeah, extremely unlikely that any ship has already left, and if it had it would probably arrive before November.
Actually, I don't think I've seen it mentioned in this thread for a long time. But if anyone wants to look at where your car is being made and possibly check it out in the holding lots before shipping check out youtube. Search for Wu Wa and/or Jason Yang.
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I'm pretty sure a shipment at the end of Q2 didn't happen for some reason or other and those cars were dispatched on a variety of scheduled vessels to Europe. I very much doubt that will happen again.
Yup, that sounds spot on for a car arriving on the 1st ship of the quarter, although in this particular case the car will have arrived in the UK on 5 May onboard GLORIOUS LEADER.
The confusion and doubts surrounding Tesla delivery dates is exactly why this forum is as busy as it is! When coupled with the wall of silence from Tesla following your order it induces a "where is my car?" anxiety that transforms into an addictive and sad fascination into global vehicle shipping schedules. You may not be at that stage just yet but give it 2 weeks or so and you will be checking this thread daily! Welcome.
In the first 4 or 5 days of April is my guess. The ship left Shanghai on 7 April.
PaulMD
Member
I had a 'shipping' sheet in mine when it arrived - stated it came on Elektra which arrived on 13th Sept.
Delivered to me on 25th Sept (came from the Mcr collection point on the day).
Delivered to me on 25th Sept (came from the Mcr collection point on the day).
Q3 2021 has been an interesting quarter for Tesla shipments and one that has been a challenge to keep on top of. I think Franco's spreadsheet has captured all the shipments to Europe even if they were not all whole-ship charters. It's worth noting that shipments from Shanghai to Japan, S Korea, Taiwan and Singapore are not as visible as they were when made from Pier 80.
The figures for Q3 will have been bolstered initially by a failed shipment (at least one) from Shanghai at the end of Q2. Whether it was because of parts shortages or an operational shipping issue we may never know. (I know I was expecting the DONG A GLAUCOS (a big ship) to load in Shanghai in late May but she remained in dry dock) Anyway, the result was that cars manufactured in late Q2 were despatched to Europe on a variety of scheduled services and part charters over the cusp of the Q2/Q3 dates. This was a very unusual occurence and one that I think will be unlikely to be repeated but it means that Q3 delivery figures will have had a healthy boost.
Also noted early in Q3 was the complete cancellation of shipments from USA to Europe.
This meant that all Model 3 orders for Europe, Israel and the UAE would now be supplied direct from Shanghai. I would have expected to see 5 or 6 ships depart from Pier 80 to Zeebrugge in Q3 and so the signs were that we should see a doubling of Shanghai ship departures in Q3 from the five noted in Q2.
Clearly the delay to manufacturing output from Berlin meant that if Model Y deliveries were to be made on time to Europe they would have to come from elsewhere and a decision had been made that Shanghai would supply. We saw at least two Model Y-heavy shipments from Shanghai in Q3.
This huge increase in export production in China and the reduced domestic deliveries as a consequence led to ill informed (or deliberate FUD) headlines in the press that the Chinese had fallen out of love with Tesla, that sales had collapsed and that Telsa's huge investment in China was a mistake.
Q3 was also notable for the continuing semiconductor shortages that has hit car manufacturing globally. Car manufacturers reported production lines halting as the component supply ran out and even Elon complained that it was affecting Tesla. Now whether there is an element of sandbagging here remains open to debate because I strongly suspect that Q3 will produce yet another production and delivery record for Tesla despite any component supply issues.
Shanghai has become notorious for its port congestion but generally this has affected container shipping more than vehicle carriers however in Q3 we saw delays of a week or more extended to vehicle carriers as well which was exacerbated by the Shanghai port closure due to Typhoon In Fa. With just 2 dedicated piers being used there was limited scope to restore schedules and so we saw other alternative docks being utilised by Tesla for loading. The use of Hangzhou (or Shanghai South) in particular had been expected due to its proximity to the GF but not before the facility had been expanded. It will be interesting to see whether its use continues in Q4 for Tesla exports - I hope so.
We saw several large deliveries direct to Norway and I imagine we are looking at about 8,000 deliveries in Q3 to Norway alone, over half of which will have been Model Y. According to one source this will be a record quarter for Tesla's Norwegian sales.
The UK has yet to open to Model Y orders (rumours are that some Model Y have already been imported from China for compliance testing) but demand for the Model 3 remains high and so I expect UK deliveries to be at a record level too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a figure of over 7000 deliveries in September alone.
In Europe the use of the Slovenian port of Koper extended the quarter's cut-off by a week and allowed an extra shipment to be squeezed in. Koper is a well established port for vehicle imports into Europe and I expect Koper to feature more in the future particulalrly as sales in Southern Europe develop further.
It's also worth noting that we saw significant exports to Australia/NZ from Shanghai. The increase in shipments from Tesla coincided nicely with a reduction in exports by Far Eastern manufacturers meaning there was capacity available on the scheduled services.
Hopefully the logistics in Q4 will be more structured but if Giga Berlin and Giga Texas open up and if the magical figure of one million deliveries per annum is seen as even remotely achievable in 2021, who knows?? We can already see two ships scheduled from Pier 80 (to the Far East) in October and I will be monitoring all the likely piers around Shanghai from the beginning of the month.
Finally, if you are waiting for car and are speaking to a Tesla rep, it's always worth asking the name of the ship - they won't always give you the name but sometimes they do and when that happens do let me know!! A voyage number is the icing on the cake for me and I'll add you to my Christmas card list!
The figures for Q3 will have been bolstered initially by a failed shipment (at least one) from Shanghai at the end of Q2. Whether it was because of parts shortages or an operational shipping issue we may never know. (I know I was expecting the DONG A GLAUCOS (a big ship) to load in Shanghai in late May but she remained in dry dock) Anyway, the result was that cars manufactured in late Q2 were despatched to Europe on a variety of scheduled services and part charters over the cusp of the Q2/Q3 dates. This was a very unusual occurence and one that I think will be unlikely to be repeated but it means that Q3 delivery figures will have had a healthy boost.
Also noted early in Q3 was the complete cancellation of shipments from USA to Europe.
This meant that all Model 3 orders for Europe, Israel and the UAE would now be supplied direct from Shanghai. I would have expected to see 5 or 6 ships depart from Pier 80 to Zeebrugge in Q3 and so the signs were that we should see a doubling of Shanghai ship departures in Q3 from the five noted in Q2.
Clearly the delay to manufacturing output from Berlin meant that if Model Y deliveries were to be made on time to Europe they would have to come from elsewhere and a decision had been made that Shanghai would supply. We saw at least two Model Y-heavy shipments from Shanghai in Q3.
This huge increase in export production in China and the reduced domestic deliveries as a consequence led to ill informed (or deliberate FUD) headlines in the press that the Chinese had fallen out of love with Tesla, that sales had collapsed and that Telsa's huge investment in China was a mistake.
Q3 was also notable for the continuing semiconductor shortages that has hit car manufacturing globally. Car manufacturers reported production lines halting as the component supply ran out and even Elon complained that it was affecting Tesla. Now whether there is an element of sandbagging here remains open to debate because I strongly suspect that Q3 will produce yet another production and delivery record for Tesla despite any component supply issues.
Shanghai has become notorious for its port congestion but generally this has affected container shipping more than vehicle carriers however in Q3 we saw delays of a week or more extended to vehicle carriers as well which was exacerbated by the Shanghai port closure due to Typhoon In Fa. With just 2 dedicated piers being used there was limited scope to restore schedules and so we saw other alternative docks being utilised by Tesla for loading. The use of Hangzhou (or Shanghai South) in particular had been expected due to its proximity to the GF but not before the facility had been expanded. It will be interesting to see whether its use continues in Q4 for Tesla exports - I hope so.
We saw several large deliveries direct to Norway and I imagine we are looking at about 8,000 deliveries in Q3 to Norway alone, over half of which will have been Model Y. According to one source this will be a record quarter for Tesla's Norwegian sales.
The UK has yet to open to Model Y orders (rumours are that some Model Y have already been imported from China for compliance testing) but demand for the Model 3 remains high and so I expect UK deliveries to be at a record level too. I wouldn't be surprised to see a figure of over 7000 deliveries in September alone.
In Europe the use of the Slovenian port of Koper extended the quarter's cut-off by a week and allowed an extra shipment to be squeezed in. Koper is a well established port for vehicle imports into Europe and I expect Koper to feature more in the future particulalrly as sales in Southern Europe develop further.
It's also worth noting that we saw significant exports to Australia/NZ from Shanghai. The increase in shipments from Tesla coincided nicely with a reduction in exports by Far Eastern manufacturers meaning there was capacity available on the scheduled services.
Hopefully the logistics in Q4 will be more structured but if Giga Berlin and Giga Texas open up and if the magical figure of one million deliveries per annum is seen as even remotely achievable in 2021, who knows?? We can already see two ships scheduled from Pier 80 (to the Far East) in October and I will be monitoring all the likely piers around Shanghai from the beginning of the month.
Finally, if you are waiting for car and are speaking to a Tesla rep, it's always worth asking the name of the ship - they won't always give you the name but sometimes they do and when that happens do let me know!! A voyage number is the icing on the cake for me and I'll add you to my Christmas card list!
scdoubleu
Member
Cheers, Mr M. I think we all appreciate the effort you put into these.
Hopefully our M3 will be on one of the first ships to depart, after a Q3 delivery never materialised.
Steve
Hopefully our M3 will be on one of the first ships to depart, after a Q3 delivery never materialised.
Steve
I can honestly say I have never stalked a forum this much before. Since putting my order in at the start of this month, and getting what I understand is the normal Tesla blackout.
I got a estimate delivery of November and I have been looking and hoping for an early date and stalking the movements in this thread.
Thanks to Mr Miserable for the info and when I eventually get a VIN number I will be seeking the shipping info.
I got a estimate delivery of November and I have been looking and hoping for an early date and stalking the movements in this thread.
Thanks to Mr Miserable for the info and when I eventually get a VIN number I will be seeking the shipping info.
Anyway, back to ships.
I have been monitoring Shanghai for the last couple of days and about half the ships are running on schedule (albeit on revised schedules) which is good news. Those that are running behind their unamended schedules are waiting about 5-6 days offshore.
It means that Tesla may still want to use alternative piers to the Shanghai pair for their charters in Q4 to avoid delays.
Although we in the UK are having a bit on an energy crisis at the moment, China is suffering too with coal shortages forcing power cuts and a sharp increase in energy prices. Lets hope the Tesla GF is not affected too much as this does not appear to be a short term problem or regional issue.
We are still in the hurricane/typhoon season and Shanghai has been hit twice in Q3 with typhoons that have closed the port and I am sure production will have been affected too. The latest typhoon, Typhoon Mindulle is not expected to affect China.
When should we expect the first ship to depart? I would guess about 7 - 10 October.
We shall see....
In the meantime, I would be grateful if we could confine this thread to ships - there are other excellent ones that deal with orders, deliveries and VINS. Thanks!
I have been monitoring Shanghai for the last couple of days and about half the ships are running on schedule (albeit on revised schedules) which is good news. Those that are running behind their unamended schedules are waiting about 5-6 days offshore.
It means that Tesla may still want to use alternative piers to the Shanghai pair for their charters in Q4 to avoid delays.
Although we in the UK are having a bit on an energy crisis at the moment, China is suffering too with coal shortages forcing power cuts and a sharp increase in energy prices. Lets hope the Tesla GF is not affected too much as this does not appear to be a short term problem or regional issue.
We are still in the hurricane/typhoon season and Shanghai has been hit twice in Q3 with typhoons that have closed the port and I am sure production will have been affected too. The latest typhoon, Typhoon Mindulle is not expected to affect China.
When should we expect the first ship to depart? I would guess about 7 - 10 October.
We shall see....
In the meantime, I would be grateful if we could confine this thread to ships - there are other excellent ones that deal with orders, deliveries and VINS. Thanks!
Trawling through the list of Q4 possibles the one ship standing out for me at the moment is HELIOS RAY.
She has been chartered by Tesla before and is due to arrive in Shanghai on 9 Oct and so the timing looks good as well.
There are several ships on scheduled services leaving Shanghai that will end up calling at Zeebrugge / Southampton in the coming weeks but unless I see some good evidence that Tesla are using them I shall ignore them, a prime example being TALIA.
She has been chartered by Tesla before and is due to arrive in Shanghai on 9 Oct and so the timing looks good as well.
There are several ships on scheduled services leaving Shanghai that will end up calling at Zeebrugge / Southampton in the coming weeks but unless I see some good evidence that Tesla are using them I shall ignore them, a prime example being TALIA.
Simonix
Member
The anticipation is killing me! haha!
Checking this thread daily for Mr Miserables' updates.....
Checking this thread daily for Mr Miserables' updates.....
S.Lav
Member
New member here - ordered my TMY two weeks ago. So happy that I found your thread Mr M and your excellent detective work and super dedication to help us all out
In my daily work I track container vessels from Taipei, so this is just my game. Just added Helio Ray to my portfolio
nrushforth
Member
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