It is not a standard response.
Ship capacity is not an issue although I'm sure when it comes to 'excuses for poor quarterly performance' the inability of ships to transport finished product at short notice' will feature. It isn't availability of ships (assuming production is about 80% of normal (which I personally doubt)) but more the inability at present of the Chinese infrastructure to handle the ships, supply the factory, and transport the output.
Elon will not want to point the finger at China's handling of the pandemic as the reason for the poor figures and so I am sure there is someone in Tesla right now sitting there and fabricating a list of other possible excuses they could use. The factory shutdown will have to be mentioned in there of course but it can't account for the huge drop in production this quarter.
There will be huge pressure on the other GFs to increase production to make up for the drop of output from Shanghai. Already rumours of record production from Fremont are filtering out and I'm sure Texas will want to put on a good show too. I'm not overly confident Berlin will have the flexibility to ramp as rapidly as required by HQ and the culture within the Berlin GF has yet to be seen.
In terms of numbers, I think the shutdown alone in Shanghai will have cost about 50,000 in lost production. If we say the factory is producing at 80% of capacity (which I don't think it is) that means we should see about 110,000 cars produced there. If Texas and Berlin perform some sort of miracle and ramp up with a whopping 50% increase that will still only be a total of about 15,000 cars in Q2. So the balance will have to come from Fremont. To achieve Q1 figures that will require Fremont to produce about 180,000 cars and I don't think that is possible. They produced 120,000 in Q1 and even if they break all records and achieve an amazing 10% increase over the quarter we are still shy of about 50,000 from Q1 figures. I think these figures are the best that can be expected and in reality will be much lower.