2022 Shipping Movements

[Mr Miserable]

Seems like you got your helpful WuWa video

Good man!
Looks like LHD and a partial shipment. A shipment to Dubai seems to fit the bill.

 

[Mr Miserable]

What about Morning Lily? Could be a candidate no?

Her itinerary would suggest not.

 

[Mr Miserable]

What Tesla said:

"Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars. As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination."

When put through Google translate:

As we change production schedules on a whim, we are finding that the car shipping industry is not as agile. We end up with compounds full of cars we can't ship in a timely fashion. We are having to buy up spare capacity wherever we can find it at huge cost. As a result we have a shedload of unsold cars on the balance sheet at the end of Q3.

 

[MGHG]

What Tesla said:

"Historically, our delivery volumes have skewed towards the end of each quarter due to regional batch building of cars. As our production volumes continue to grow, it is becoming increasingly challenging to secure vehicle transportation capacity and at a reasonable cost during these peak logistics weeks. In Q3, we began transitioning to a more even regional mix of vehicle builds each week, which led to an increase in cars in transit at the end of the quarter. These cars have been ordered and will be delivered to customers upon arrival at their destination."

When put through Google translate:

As we change production schedules on a whim, we are finding that the car shipping industry is not as agile. We end up with compounds full of cars we can't ship in a timely fashion. We are having to buy up spare capacity wherever we can find it at huge cost. As a result we have a shedload of unsold cars on the balance sheet at the end of Q3.

for the translation

 

[Mr Miserable]

Actually when you look at the figures the % undelivered is still ridiculously low in comparison with any other car manufacturer:

	Production	Deliveries	Subject to operating lease accounting
Model S/X	19,935	18,672	10%
Model 3/Y	345,988	325,158	3%
Total	365,923	343,830	3%

We will have to wait until 19 Oct until we see the detail behind these figures but clearly the production figures are a little lower than expected (Berlin??)

 

[MGHG]

Phew! That's quite a list.
First of all I wasn't expecting the GF closures, I never expected the complete shutdown and when the scheduled line closures were revealed they were for much longer than I would have expected. That said, all the work was completed ahead of schedule. I have no firm evidence to say the ramp up afterwards was slower than Tesla expected but I suspect that was the case. Nevertheless, the increased production level was immediately evident particularly for the MY Chinese domestic market - Q3 must hit an all-time record for China deliveries. The domestic car carriers are now almost a permanent feature at Shanghai South. As far as UK is concerned I am pretty sure Model Y will top the important September car sales figures by some margin.
I was expecting more ships in Q3 but the closures put paid to that. I was surprised by how late in the quarter UK and EU shipments left. I was also suprised at the number of shipments the UK received compared to EU. I suppose we should expect higher demand from the UK in Q1 and Q3 (a quirk of the UK registration system). We will have had 10 ships in Q3 to UK/EU which equates to about 45,000 vehicles. I suspect about 60-70% of those to be Model Y. There is a long list of waiting Model 3 buyers in the UK that I hope will have smiling faces in Q4.

The German Teslamag article was simply amazing and was probably as accurate as it could be at the time. It correctly told us the number of ships destined for the EU although the names of the vessels changed - RCC CLASSIC became RCC ANTWERP, GLOVIS SPIRIT became GLOVIS CHALLENGE, HELIOS RAY became GLOVIS CRYSTAL, GLOVIS CAPTAIN became GLOVIS SUN and GLOVIS CRYSTAL became GLOVIS COURAGE. The destinations were accurate (except for RCC ANTWERP which went to Koper instead of Barcelona). I have no idea as to whether the loads were correct but I suspect they were not far off the mark. I would love for the leak to be a regular occurrence and for it to include UK shipments as well!
The combination of the German leak and the exclusive use of Shanghai South for EU/UK shipments (apart from HOEGH ST PETERSBURG) cut down significantly the number of suspect vessels in Q3. This was also aided to a degree by the early VIN allocations, each 'shower' being fairly reliably allocated to an already identified ship that departed from Shanghai South. I'm pretty confident at the moment that we have not missed a shipment this quarter and it is possibly the first quarter where every ship was pretty much confirmed before it reached Singapore. For me personally, it's been the easiest quarter ever - I have not had to apply myself to the same degree as before. This has been due to the Tesla ships being pretty obvious, WuWa realising that videos of the docks have an audience, some outstanding research by @Darreno and the incredible support of @Frizzy and son. Thank you all.

As for Q4, I'm hoping to spot S/X transatlantic shipments to EU and about 12 ships from Shanghai to UK/EU. I don't think I'll be able to reliably track MIG shipments to UK or elsewhere. I expect it will be a bumper quarter, if nothing else but to get the numbers up for the year after the 'poor' Q2.

Having said all that, Q3 is still not over and there are still some unanswered questions eg will GLOVIS COURAGE head to Southampton after Barcelona??

Dear Mr Miserable, thanks for the extensive reply you wrote almost four weeks ago.

I have so far only written a few posts and have not yet gained the possibility to add reactions to other people's postings.

With the departure of GLOVIS SUPREME, it seems to me as the Q4 shipments started a little bit earlier than expected.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Dear Mr Miserable, thanks for the extensive reply you wrote almost four weeks ago.

I have so far only written a few posts and have not yet gained the possibility to add reactions to other people's postings.

With the departure of GLOVIS SUPREME, it seems to me as the Q4 shipments started a little bit earlier than expected.

I stand by my comments regarding the Chinese deliveries - they must be at a record level which would indicate to me that significant underperformance elsewhere brought the quarterly figures down. Regular readers will be aware of my (negative) view of Berlin's achievements and prospects. I still believe Tesla will top the UK car sales for Sept with MY and I'm sure M3 will feature high in the top ten too.
I think we are seeing unshipped Q3 production being moved from Shanghai South at the moment. There is no way these two ships are full of Teslas.
Looking at the latest WuWa video there are plenty more to be shipped too.
From the EDDs being bandied about I expect a proper Q4 UK ship to depart around 10 Oct.
I haven't got to grips with the EU situation yet but a shipment either side of this would not be an unreasonable expectation.

 

[MGHG]

I standby my comments regarding the Chinese deliveries - they must be at a record level which would indicate to me that significant underperformance elsewhere brought the quarterly figures down. Regular readers will be aware of my (negative) view of Berlin's achievements and prospects. I still believe Tesla will top the UK car sales for Sept with MY and I'm sure M3 will feature high in the top ten too.
I think we are seeing unshipped Q3 production being moved from Shanghai South at the moment. There is no way these two ships are full of Teslas.
Looking at the latest WuWa video there are plenty more to be shipped too.
From the EDDs being bandied about I expect a proper Q4 UK ship to depart around 10 Oct.
I haven't got to grips with the EU situation yet but a shipment either side of this would not be an unreasonable expectation.

Thanks!

 

[GeirT Simonsen]

I stand by my comments regarding the Chinese deliveries - they must be at a record level which would indicate to me that significant underperformance elsewhere brought the quarterly figures down. Regular readers will be aware of my (negative) view of Berlin's achievements and prospects. I still believe Tesla will top the UK car sales for Sept with MY and I'm sure M3 will feature high in the top ten too.
I think we are seeing unshipped Q3 production being moved from Shanghai South at the moment. There is no way these two ships are full of Teslas.
Looking at the latest WuWa video there are plenty more to be shipped too.
From the EDDs being bandied about I expect a proper Q4 UK ship to depart around 10 Oct.
I haven't got to grips with the EU situation yet but a shipment either side of this would not be an unreasonable expectation.

Not sure if it gives any clues, but around September 28-30 just about everyone in Norway seems to have lost their EDD.

 

[geolfrance]

 

[geolfrance]

View attachment 859815

fully desertic !!

 

[Morpheus84]

@Mr Miserable. Just had a text asking me to update my trade-in Odo reading. This normally happens when a UK delivery is due doesn’t it?? Do you have any opinion on this? With no shipping identified, could it be a MIG vehicle?? Or maybe I’m just on hopium and it means nothing

 

[Ripple]

@Mr Miserable. Just had a text asking me to update my trade-in Odo reading. This normally happens when a UK delivery is due doesn’t it?? Do you have any opinion on this? With no shipping identified, could it be a MIG vehicle?? Or maybe I’m just on hopium and it means nothing

I just had the same thing here in France on my trade-in against a Model 3 rwd.

 

[Mr Miserable]

@Mr Miserable. Just had a text asking me to update my trade-in Odo reading. This normally happens when a UK delivery is due doesn’t it?? Do you have any opinion on this? With no shipping identified, could it be a MIG vehicle?? Or maybe I’m just on hopium and it means nothing

I'm not up-to-speed with trade-in trigger points but I can pretty much assure you that nothing is on its way to the UK at present.
There, I've said it.
That should induce a VIN shower of hurricane proportions to prove me wrong!

 

[RossClark1]

I'm not up-to-speed with trade-in trigger points but I can pretty much assure you that nothing is on its way to the UK at present.
There, I've said it.
That should induce a VIN shower of hurricane proportions to prove me wrong!

Boo hiss

 

[Morpheus84]

I'm not up-to-speed with trade-in trigger points but I can pretty much assure you that nothing is on its way to the UK at present.
There, I've said it.
That should induce a VIN shower of hurricane proportions to prove me wrong!

Why would they do this to me . The Tesla emotion roller coaster is underway! Seems stupid to ask for an update unless a delivery is imminent. At the minute I hate Tesla. The only way they can make me change my mind is by providing me a hidden VIN - Visualise to win!

 

[Mr Miserable]

I have my eye on GRANDE CALIFORNIA at the moment - she looks like she could head into Shanghai South.
We shall see....

 

[Mr Miserable]

Over in San Francisco HELIOS RAY will arrive on 11 Oct.
The last time he checked our dog walker said there was nothing on the planning whiteboard for Pier 80.
It could be just a bunker stop - we saw that happen twice last quarter but then again.....
I'll be keeping an eye on her....

 

[perry12396]

I have my eye on GRANDE CALIFORNIA at the moment - she looks like she could head into Shanghai South.
We shall see....

It’s showing as due at Shanghai around 2200hrs on 4/10. Do we think this could be the ship for all those MY which have a date mid/late November?

 

[Mr Miserable]

It’s showing as due at Shanghai around 2200hrs on 4/10. Do we think this could be the ship for all those MY which have a date mid/late November?

I have pencilled in a ship around 10 Oct for UK, so she might be a bit too early.