Welcome to Tesla Motors Club
Discuss Tesla's Model S, Model 3, Model X, Model Y, Cybertruck, Roadster and More.
Register

2022 Shipping Movements

I agree she is now at the ICO quay used by Tesla (among others) however when she arrived she docked in the Northern Inlet and was there long enough for a complete unload. There is nothing to suggest she was carrying - no associated VIN activity and no EDDs that tie-in either.
I'm pretty confident that she was of no interest to us.

I didn't spot anything of interest being unloaded in Drammen the other day from AUTO ACHIEVE although the weather was so awful it was difficult to make out the ship nevermind the cars. It does make me wonder whether cars delivered to Zeebrugge on GLOVIS SUN destined for Norway might arrive on CITY OF ROTTERDAM tomorrow.
Looks like we'll both be keeping an eye out tomorrow then, I wonder if Tesla were organised enough to deliver the Norway cars early and then Glovis Sun brought cars for Northern Europe.
I note AutoProgress which has been doing two runs a week to Oslo is having a few days off in port at Bremerhaven and I suspect this is to prevent quarter end cars in transit, when they can probably deliver those in Germany. Drammen dockside appears to now be Tesla free.
 
Looks like we'll both be keeping an eye out tomorrow then, I wonder if Tesla were organised enough to deliver the Norway cars early and then Glovis Sun brought cars for Northern Europe.
I note AutoProgress which has been doing two runs a week to Oslo is having a few days off in port at Bremerhaven and I suspect this is to prevent quarter end cars in transit, when they can probably deliver those in Germany. Drammen dockside appears to now be Tesla free.
I have been thinking the same, that it would make sense for Tesla, if possible, to put all Norway VINs in Q3 on earlier ships than GLOVIS SUN since it seemed like a close race. But I guess there are many other factors like storage capacity that also will affect that.

Not sure if it has been mentioned somewhere, but EVs in Norway have so far been exempt from VAT and the huge taxes fossil cars have. From January 1 there will be VAT on the amount that exceeds 500K NOK. This won't make much of a difference for model 3, but model Y, S and X are expected to be significantly more expensive if delivered in Q1 23 than Q4 22. Tesla Norway will probably see very few cancellations in Q3 and Q4, and more than usual in Q1 unless they reduce their prices. So that gives Tesla an incentive to increase the quota for Norway in Q4.
 

Mr Miserable

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
7,454
18,492
UK
Over in Shanghai it is now Q4! Happy Q4!🥂🎉🎇
So far, there is nothing to report with no sign of any shipments to UK/EU.
MORNING CHERRY is about to depart to Australia from the main Haitong terminal and hopefully we will soon discover whether she is carrying some Teslas.
My suspicion that the Chinese market may be currently saturated appears to be being echoed by financial analysts in the US whose dire predictions caused the Tesla share price to tumble yesterday. I don't think the situation is at all dire (the recovery seen so far today would echo that) and that delivery expectations for Q3 by the markets will have been met and probably well exceeded, it's just that Tesla probably deluged the Chinese market this month. A decision to switch production to other markets was probably made last week. There is certainly pent-up demand for M3 in the UK and EU, and probably in Australia as well.
The current Troy Teslike forecast for Q4 of 160K MY for China may turn out to be somewhat unrealistic figure and whilst the GF has the flexibility to switch production easily I am not so confident Tesla can find the ships to export the additional production quite so easily. There are indications that apart from significant shipments from new Chinese manufacturers (BYD, NIO, XPENG etc) the traditional manufacturers are ramping up following their 'chip shortage' woes. Whilst we are still seeing ships returning to the Far East from the EU empty, such is the high demand in the Far East it is making the non-revenue earning positioning voyage viable. Although Tesla may not want to enter the shipping business, the days of cheap shipping are over and if it is to avoid being held to ransom by the astute shipping companies some radical solutions may need to be investigated if Tesla want to keep a lid on costs. Tesla's vertical integration may need to be extended, and they have the cash.
I was expecting about 9 ships to UK/EU in Q4 but this may increase if Tesla can find the ships. We may also see an increase in the use of scheduled services too. These can be harder to spot (except shipments using Hoegh vessels) and certainly more difficult to quantify the size of each shipment.
Clearly a lot depends on whether Berlin will be able to step up to the mark. Although we are seeing increased production from Berlin, exports to Taiwan (!) would suggest there is a limit to the EU market's appetite for black and white cars. Clearly Berlin continues to be a problem child and I hope it's troubles are addressed in Q4. I would hope to see some MY from Berlin be supplied to the UK in Q4, even if they are only black or white. I don't think I will be able to spot any MIG shipments to the UK since Bremerhaven to Southampton is a regularly served route - I'll try though!
 
Over in Shanghai it is now Q4! Happy Q4!🥂🎉🎇
So far, there is nothing to report with no sign of any shipments to UK/EU.
MORNING CHERRY is about to depart to Australia from the main Haitong terminal and hopefully we will soon discover whether she is carrying some Teslas.
My suspicion that the Chinese market may be currently saturated appears to be being echoed by financial analysts in the US whose dire predictions caused the Tesla share price to tumble yesterday. I don't think the situation is at all dire (the recovery seen so far today would echo that) and that delivery expectations for Q3 by the markets will have been met and probably well exceeded, it's just that Tesla probably deluged the Chinese market this month. A decision to switch production to other markets was probably made last week. There is certainly pent-up demand for M3 in the UK and EU, and probably in Australia as well.
The current Troy Teslike forecast for Q4 of 160K MY for China may turn out to be somewhat unrealistic figure and whilst the GF has the flexibility to switch production easily I am not so confident Tesla can find the ships to export the additional production quite so easily. There are indications that apart from significant shipments from new Chinese manufacturers (BYD, NIO, XPENG etc) the traditional manufacturers are ramping up following their 'chip shortage' woes. Whilst we are still seeing ships returning to the Far East from the EU empty, such is the high demand in the Far East it is making the non-revenue earning positioning voyage viable. Although Tesla may not want to enter the shipping business, the days of cheap shipping are over and if it is to avoid being held to ransom by the astute shipping companies some radical solutions may need to be investigated if Tesla want to keep a lid on costs. Tesla's vertical integration may need to be extended, and they have the cash.
I was expecting about 9 ships to UK/EU in Q4 but this may increase if Tesla can find the ships. We may also see an increase in the use of scheduled services too. These can be harder to spot (except shipments using Hoegh vessels) and certainly more difficult to quantify the size of each shipment.
Clearly a lot depends on whether Berlin will be able to step up to the mark. Although we are seeing increased production from Berlin, exports to Taiwan (!) would suggest there is a limit to the EU market's appetite for black and white cars. Clearly Berlin continues to be a problem child and I hope it's troubles are addressed in Q4. I would hope to see some MY from Berlin be supplied to the UK in Q4, even if they are only black or white. I don't think I will be able to spot any MIG shipments to the UK since Bremerhaven to Southampton is a regularly served route - I'll try though!
Much appreciated for sharing your insights, looking forward to further updates! According to Youtuber Wu Wa, who almost daily (drone)films the Shanghai GF, the GF will be closed today and tomorrow for a National Holiday, as where other businesses will be closed for 7 days?
 

MrT3

Active Member
Jun 26, 2021
1,849
1,242
UK
What exactly does switching production mean? What is the physical difference between a model Y sold in China vs Europe?
Not much for the MY - Tesla try to make all parts worldwide compliant and consistent for efficiency. But I think the China domestic MY has different rear brakes, possibly different windscreen, information stickers. There are different tyres for countries that have regulations about all-season/winter.

The M3 has differences too, for example the M3P in China has different wheels to Europe/US.

By switching though we really just mean where the vehicles are destined for more than actual physical build differences.
 
Could be anything making the car different from one market to the others. What is the Chinese TMY rwd ? Compared to Australia one ? And what will be EU version made available 26th august? Nobody knows. Between, LHD and RHD is one point....

Between, on the prod line, they can just say 'now it's for EU ', without any real technical difference.... :) It's a sitch. Transparent in terms of car piece, but it's a change.
 
Chargeport
yup that's official even on the china site photos already been updated.


1664625831376.png
 
  • Informative
Reactions: transpondster
Europe-Charter-Ship Nr. 1 on its way to Southpier ... GLOVIS SUPREME ?

Greets
Looks like GLOVIS SUPREME is underway to Singapore. What’s the verdict so far? Could it have loaded so quickly at the port (<24 hours by the looks of it) not sure what kind of rapid loading we’ve seen in the past but this seemed to set off too quick to be full to the brim with Teslas
 

AndyWarrington

Member
Supporting Member
Jan 23, 2022
261
290
Warrington
Looks like GLOVIS SUPREME is underway to Singapore. What’s the verdict so far? Could it have loaded so quickly at the port (<24 hours by the looks of it) not sure what kind of rapid loading we’ve seen in the past but this seemed to set off too quick to be full to the brim with Teslas
Draught increased from 8.1 to 9.7 overnight so maybe 🤷‍♂️
I've no idea the weight of cars and affect on draught though!
 
  • Like
Reactions: JayWayB and ROTA
Draught increased from 8.1 to 9.7 overnight so maybe 🤷‍♂️
I've no idea the weight of cars and affect on draught though!
I think someone tried to keep track of that and found it to be too unreliable to estimate anything. She did spend very short time at the dock compared to ships in Q3, but I think those ships spent unusually long. I'm excited to see if there will be any VIN activity in the next few days. In Q3 it seemed like it happened between Taiwan and Singapore, but there has recently been VIN reports from HOEGH TRAVELLER when she entered the Red Sea so I don't know what to expect.
 
  • Like
Reactions: AndyWarrington

Mr Miserable

Well-Known Member
Supporting Member
Jul 8, 2019
7,454
18,492
UK
GLOVIS SUPREME has departed Shanghai South and looks very much like being the 1st ship to EU in Q4.
At the moment we don't know precisely where in Europe she is heading to - the choice is Koper, Barcelona, or Zeebrugge. Hopefully we will get an indication when the the VINs start to be allocated in a day or two. I estimate her arrival dates to be around 23 Oct, 24 Oct or 29 Oct respectively.

As has been mentioned, a project on this thread a year or so ago to determine the quantity of cars onboard from the the ships draft was abandoned because of the effect of the significant unknown variable of ballast. The number of cars onboard simply cannot be determined from the draft.
GLOVIS SUPREME is a big ship and if she were to be filled with Teslas I think we would be looking at somewhere in the region of 5000 cars. Since the ship was only alongside for 24 hrs I therefore think it unlikely that she is anywhere near full to capacity. A lot depends of course on the efficiency of the loading, but nevertheless, I estimate a maximum of 2400 cars could be onboard and that is the top figure.
 

About Us

Formed in 2006, Tesla Motors Club (TMC) was the first independent online Tesla community. Today it remains the largest and most dynamic community of Tesla enthusiasts. Learn more.

Do you value your experience at TMC? Consider becoming a Supporting Member of Tesla Motors Club. As a thank you for your contribution, you'll get nearly no ads in the Community and Groups sections. Additional perks are available depending on the level of contribution. Please visit the Account Upgrades page for more details.


SUPPORT TMC
Top