2022 Shipping Movements

[WllXM]

Asked Tesla why my EDD hadn’t updated. This was the response:

“As the UK receives its cars from Shanghai, and with the recent Covid lockdown there, the first vessels will arrive in June instead of May this quarter.

We are working on the logistics of bringing more vessels within a shorter timeframe, which is why we are unable to give an exact delivery window for your order yet.”

I am wondering if this is just a standard response or if there is actually a chance to have more than one ship leaving this month for the UK/EU and bring the remaining cars.
It this point i want to believe the bottleneck is ship capacity rather than factory output

 

[delta0]

Normally by this time into a quarter it’s already ships out there sailing with Teslas.

Soon to be sailing by the looks of it. Musk did mention in his financials call that they wouldn’t be behind on delivery targets this quarter but I’m unsure if those are similar to what the last quarter was.

 

[Jonte73]

Soon to be sailing by the looks of it. Musk did mention in his financials call that they wouldn’t be behind on delivery targets this quarter but I’m unsure if those are similar to what the last quarter was.

Yes hopefully one ship to europe with Teslas is sailing out soon. And that’s just one!!!
And yes, of course Elon says that. They are way behind at this moment with the shipments.
To make another successful quarter, they need a miracle. Time is running out.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Going by the previous quarter sales figures for the UK for 3 and Y they will be bringing over around 13,000 cars. That’s 3 ships. That means there’s another 2 ships out there.

No one is suggesting (apart from Elon in his last 'mislead the shareholders' address) that Q2 will be anywhere near Q1 figures.
If it were the case we would need to see 15 ships depart to UK/EU over the next 3 weeks.
What are the chances of that? Nowhere remotely near I would suggest.
Since Q2 figures are going to be bad anyway it may be an opportunity to have a couple of ships at sea over the quarter-end, something Tesla have cleverly avoided until now. It will make a big dent in the balance sheet but the benefit for that will come as a huge boost to the Q3 figures and make Elon look like a magician after what will inevitably be a sub-optimal Q2.

 

[Sacharanc]

I am wondering if this is just a standard response or if there is actually a chance to have more than one ship leaving this month for the UK/EU and bring the remaining cars.
It this point i want to believe the bottleneck is ship capacity rather than factory output

Nope, ship they are about the same amount as before, just problems of dockers, ship waiting and still production as it’s not a normal production yet even if it is still increasing;-). So just be patient

 

[delta0]

No one is suggesting (apart from Elon in his last 'mislead the shareholders' address) that Q2 will be anywhere near Q1 figures.
If it were the case we would need to see 15 ships depart to UK/EU over the next 3 weeks.
What are the chances of that? Nowhere remotely near I would suggest.
Since Q2 figures are going to be bad anyway it may be an opportunity to have a couple of ships at sea over the quarter-end, something Tesla have cleverly avoided until now. It will make a big dent in the balance sheet but the benefit for that will come as a huge boost to the Q3 figures and make Elon look like a magician after what will inevitably be a sub-optimal Q2.

Good to hear this is something others are thinking about as well. I did wonder how realistic it would be.

 

[delta0]

Yes hopefully one ship to europe with Teslas is sailing out soon. And that’s just one!!!
And yes, of course Elon says that. They are way behind at this moment with the shipments.
To make another successful quarter, they need a miracle. Time is running out.

This would explain why some have a narrow date range on their order and others haven’t yet. Could see quite a few orders being knocked over to the next quarter.

 

[Wattsisname]

You also forget cars for the rest of EU..

And the shut down followed by a slow production ramp.
Does this mean that the RHD cars will be spread thinly between UK and the Antipodes?

 

[Mr Miserable]

I am wondering if this is just a standard response or if there is actually a chance to have more than one ship leaving this month for the UK/EU and bring the remaining cars.
It this point i want to believe the bottleneck is ship capacity rather than factory output

It is not a standard response.
Ship capacity is not an issue although I'm sure when it comes to 'excuses for poor quarterly performance' the inability of ships to transport finished product at short notice' will feature. It isn't availability of ships (assuming production is about 80% of normal (which I personally doubt)) but more the inability at present of the Chinese infrastructure to handle the ships, supply the factory, and transport the output.
Elon will not want to point the finger at China's handling of the pandemic as the reason for the poor figures and so I am sure there is someone in Tesla right now sitting there and fabricating a list of other possible excuses they could use. The factory shutdown will have to be mentioned in there of course but it can't account for the huge drop in production this quarter.
There will be huge pressure on the other GFs to increase production to make up for the drop of output from Shanghai. Already rumours of record production from Fremont are filtering out and I'm sure Texas will want to put on a good show too. I'm not overly confident Berlin will have the flexibility to ramp as rapidly as required by HQ and the culture within the Berlin GF has yet to be seen.
In terms of numbers, I think the shutdown alone in Shanghai will have cost about 50,000 in lost production. If we say the factory is producing at 80% of capacity (which I don't think it is) that means we should see about 110,000 cars produced there. If Texas and Berlin perform some sort of miracle and ramp up with a whopping 50% increase that will still only be a total of about 15,000 cars in Q2. So the balance will have to come from Fremont. To achieve Q1 figures that will require Fremont to produce about 180,000 cars and I don't think that is possible. They produced 120,000 in Q1 and even if they break all records and achieve an amazing 10% increase over the quarter we are still shy of about 50,000 from Q1 figures. I think these figures are the best that can be expected and in reality will be much lower.

 

[delta0]

And the shut down followed by a slow production ramp.
Does this mean that the RHD cars will be spread thinly between UK and the Antipodes?

EU will be getting some supply from Berlin so it’s also possible they are going to be really down on the MIC cars this quarter.

 

[E_had]

It is not a standard response.
Ship capacity is not an issue although I'm sure when it comes to 'excuses for poor quarterly performance' the inability of ships to transport finished product at short notice' will feature. It isn't availability of ships (assuming production is about 80% of normal (which I personally doubt)) but more the inability at present of the Chinese infrastructure to handle the ships, supply the factory, and transport the output.
Elon will not want to point the finger at China's handling of the pandemic as the reason for the poor figures and so I am sure there is someone in Tesla right now sitting there and fabricating a list of other possible excuses they could use. The factory shutdown will have to be mentioned in there of course but it can't account for the huge drop in production this quarter.
There will be huge pressure on the other GFs to increase production to make up for the drop of output from Shanghai. Already rumours of record production from Fremont are filtering out and I'm sure Texas will want to put on a good show too. I'm not overly confident Berlin will have the flexibility to ramp as rapidly as required by HQ and the culture within the Berlin GF has yet to be seen.
In terms of numbers, I think the shutdown alone in Shanghai will have cost about 50,000 in lost production. If we say the factory is producing at 80% of capacity (which I don't think it is) that means we should see about 110,000 cars produced there. If Texas and Berlin perform some sort of miracle and ramp up with a whopping 50% increase that will still only be a total of about 15,000 cars in Q2. So the balance will have to come from Fremont. To achieve Q1 figures that will require Fremont to produce about 180,000 cars and I don't think that is possible. They produced 120,000 in Q1 and even if they break all records and achieve an amazing 10% increase over the quarter we are still shy of about 50,000 from Q1 figures. I think these figures are the best that can be expected and in reality will be much lower.

Will Glovis Splendor go to Uk or EU? Franco Mossotto - in twitter said it's destination is Zebrugge and reading here I though she was going to UK?

 

[Warp9lecy]

Not worth the worry until someone receives a VIN.

 

[MrT3]

Will Glovis Splendor go to Uk or EU? Franco Mossotto - in twitter said it's destination is Zebrugge and reading here I though she was going to UK?

Possibly both.

 

[Raj2022]

Going by the previous quarter sales figures for the UK for 3 and Y they will be bringing over around 13,000 cars. That’s 3 ships. That means there’s another 2 ships out there.

@Mr Miserable. If Theben kept to its schedule, it should be arriving into Southampton same time as GLOVIS SPLENDOR on/around the 13th of June. If Theben comes into Shanghai this Friday, and then leaves couple of days later, does that mean Theben travels slightly faster/less stops arriving into Southampton around same time as Glovis. Or would these schedules change all the time. Hopefully Theben on Friday and Morning Peace Friday after into Shanghai.

 

[_SunShine]

Maybe GLOVIS SPLENDOR needs to bunker some fuel in Singapore .... takes some time. Who knows.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Will Glovis Splendor go to Uk or EU? Franco Mossotto - in twitter said it's destination is Zebrugge and reading here I though she was going to UK?

I'm not going to comment on what other sites, twitter, or self-proclaimed shipping gurus say. The trouble is that a lot of these other places actually get a lot of good information either directly or indirectly from this thread. They are also responsible for generating their own nonesense. VIKING ADVENTURE is a recent example where one site mentions it, another builds on it, 'a French customer' confirms it and so on in a vicious spiral.
A year or so ago I mentioned a ship heading to Ashdod, Israel. It was passed on to another site and another site picked up on it and then I was tipped off by someone that visited that site that the ship was 'confirmed'. I now just ignore the other sites and have confidence that through diligent record keeping and my own research that I will identify likely vessels long before they will and equally identify unlikely vessels too. In many cases I won't expand on my reasons but that is not to say there is no evidence behind the decisions. It also means that if someone out of the blue gives me a tip I will 'check it out' first. I'm not infallible and I do miss the odd detail now and then and at the moment with the frequency of itinerary changes affecting Shanghai vessels the risk has never been higher, but I am aware of it. As far as GLOVIS SPLENDOR is concerned there remains a 50% chance that she will head to S Korea although my hunch is that she is more likely to be heading to UK/EU. On that basis she is likely to head to Southampton (around 08 Jun) and then Zeebrugge (around 10 Jun). I can't be more accurate with dates because we don't know when she will depart.
I have already stated my opinion on THEBEN and another ship the others have yet to pick up on, but you will have to trawl through quite a few pages to find it.

 

[Sacharanc]

I'm not going to comment on what other sites, twitter, or self-proclaimed shipping gurus say. The trouble is that a lot of these other places actually get a lot of good information either directly or indirectly from this thread. They are also responsible for generating their own nonesense. VIKING ADVENTURE is a recent example where one site mentions it, another builds on it, 'a French customer' confirms it and so on in a vicious spiral.
A year or so ago I mentioned a ship heading to Ashdod, Israel. It was passed on to another site and another site picked up on it and then I was tipped off by someone that visited that site that the ship was 'confirmed'. I now just ignore the other sites and have confidence that through diligent record keeping and my own research that I will identify likely vessels long before they will and equally identify unlikely vessels too. In many cases I won't expand on my reasons but that is not to say there is no evidence behind the decisions. It also means that if someone out of the blue gives me a tip I will 'check it out' first. I'm not infallible and I do miss the odd detail now and then and at the moment with the frequency of itinerary changes affecting Shanghai vessels the risk has never been higher, but I am aware of it. As far as GLOVIS SPLENDOR is concerned there remains a 50% chance that she will head to S Korea although my hunch is that she is more likely to be heading to UK/EU. On that basis she is likely to head to Southampton (around 08 Jun) and then Zeebrugge (around 10 Jun). I can't be more accurate with dates because we don't know when she will depart.
I have already stated my opinion on THEBEN and another ship the others have yet to pick up on, but you will have to trawl through quite a few pages to find it.

Thank you Mr Miserable for all the effort and nobody is perfect ;-) so some errors can come along but at least it’s not intentional ;-)

 

[Hoopyfrood]

TURANDOT will dock at the main Haitong terminal. All previous Tesla exports to Oz and NZ have departed from here. The cars are being transported on a scheduled service, not a charter.

Do you think it's likely that TURANDOT will be picking up Teslas for us Australians? Or is there no real way to tell?

 

[E_had]

I'm not going to comment on what other sites, twitter, or self-proclaimed shipping gurus say. The trouble is that a lot of these other places actually get a lot of good information either directly or indirectly from this thread. They are also responsible for generating their own nonesense. VIKING ADVENTURE is a recent example where one site mentions it, another builds on it, 'a French customer' confirms it and so on in a vicious spiral.
A year or so ago I mentioned a ship heading to Ashdod, Israel. It was passed on to another site and another site picked up on it and then I was tipped off by someone that visited that site that the ship was 'confirmed'. I now just ignore the other sites and have confidence that through diligent record keeping and my own research that I will identify likely vessels long before they will and equally identify unlikely vessels too. In many cases I won't expand on my reasons but that is not to say there is no evidence behind the decisions. It also means that if someone out of the blue gives me a tip I will 'check it out' first. I'm not infallible and I do miss the odd detail now and then and at the moment with the frequency of itinerary changes affecting Shanghai vessels the risk has never been higher, but I am aware of it. As far as GLOVIS SPLENDOR is concerned there remains a 50% chance that she will head to S Korea although my hunch is that she is more likely to be heading to UK/EU. On that basis she is likely to head to Southampton (around 08 Jun) and then Zeebrugge (around 10 Jun). I can't be more accurate with dates because we don't know when she will depart.
I have already stated my opinion on THEBEN and another ship the others have yet to pick up on, but you will have to trawl through quite a few pages to find it.

Thank you for the info.
Just wanted to see if I should get excited given my recent EDD change.

 

[Mr Miserable]

Do you think it's likely that TURANDOT will be picking up Teslas for us Australians? Or is there no real way to tell?

Yes