Wonder how new owners prior to 9-15 feel about this firesale. Their car just depreciated $10,000 more than it was scheduled.
During my drive home from the corner store just now, I was thinking about this.
First, Tesla wanted to fund their Model 3 development and capital partially out of profit margin off of Model S & Model X. Basically, Model S and Model X are nice cars, but being sold at a price quite a bit higher than they cost to make.
Next, Model 3 will start to be made, and shortly after, it will settle into profitable territory all by itself; each Model 3 car sold will be a net cash inflow event.
Even though they will still have expenditures:
Paying down old debt
Model 3 expansion, Gigafactory expansion (including PowerWall expansion)
Solar roofs
Other equipment (chargers, inverters, etc.).
Model 3 will be able to pay for all of that going forward, in addition to income from all the products company-wide.
My point is, that the need for plain cash from every Model S and Model X sale will be diminished. The need for Model S & Model X to be much cheaper to make than they are sold for will, therefore, be diminished. Not eliminated, just diminished. This works into the sales model a bit: the buyers of Model S and Model X are not only paying for their own car but also for development of the Model 3. Once Model 3 can stand on its own, Model S and Model X buyers will (rightly) say that Model 3 has already been paid for enough to stand on its own, make back its own money, and there's been enough income redistribution in this world to suck it dry many times over, so let's get some of that money being paid by customers for their Model S and Model X back into the Model S and Model X value. This can have any of a combination of various results, some of which I will guess and list here:
- Lower price for Model S, X
- Improved quality for Model S, X (new comforts, new features, more reliable, etc.) We all have our own list of items that can go in this category.
- Tesla tries to keep milking the donors for more development on new product lines, like Model Y, Model Truck, Model Bus, and Airplane new development. I say Tesla realizes this is a bad idea, and decides to give the Model S and X crowd a win and have the Model 3 (in concert with all product lines profit) pay for the Model Y, etc.. #3 is stretching it too far, in my opinion.
- Tesla abandons the push to sell so many Model S and X, and just lets those models dwindle, and doesn't increase the value (or decrease the price). From what I understand, there are enough Model X & S sold to make it worthwhile to keep that market share going and earn profit, so, therefore, #4 is a bad idea.
So, in effect, I'm saying Tesla is probably going to do #2 (increase quality), and if they are not really quick about introducing increased value with new luxury features, they will probably also do #1 (decrease price) in the meanwhile.
What that means is that the current Model S and Model X will depreciate even more once the Model 3 comes out, because Tesla is going to turn its attention to newer versions of the Model S & X and sell the older versions of Model S and X for relatively less, while they try to increase newer Model S & X value so they can charge a premium amount for improved luxury and compete against new luxury EV competition. Tesla has left themselves room for a lot of improvement in the luxury angle of the Model S and X, and they may take advantage of that.
So, "new owners prior to 9-15" feeling extra bad about depreciation haven't been looking at Tesla's master plan version 1 or version 2, because it's all written in black and white, by Elon Musk as CEO of Tesla Motors.
Tesla's willingness to appropriately discount price shows that it doesn't want to remain stagnant, and is willing to continue to bring compelling new and existing products to market. And yet, there will still be a lot of us who pay huge margins for our cars before the Model 3 comes out.