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$99 FSD take rate

Will you pay for $99 FSD after free trial ends?

  • Yes - annual

  • No

  • Yes - only for occasional road trips


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I'm torn on it.

On one hand, since getting the trial, I use it every single day! It removes nearly all my commuting stress which is worth the price of admission alone. I can see myself subscribing, at least for the summer months, but the rub is that it doesn't do a good enough job avoiding potholes and is a little too aggressive with hugging the shoulder/inside lines when you're passing someone (a trove of nails/screws/debris this time of the year).

This isn't much of an issue at the moment since I'm still rocking my 19" winter wheels. Once I go back to my Uberturbines, I'm probably going to be less likely to let FSD drive for fear of hitting a pothole and bending/curbing a wheel or putting an object through my tire.

we shall see... if the price were a bit lower (say 50.00 a month) I'd likely just subscribe for the year anyway for the occasional use... but 100/month is still a little too expensive for something I'm not sure I'd use very often. If they fixed the lane hugging issue and was a bit better at avoiding potholes I'd be more inclined to pay 100 for it.
 
I'm torn on it.

On one hand, since getting the trial, I use it every single day! It removes nearly all my commuting stress which is worth the price of admission alone. I can see myself subscribing, at least for the summer months, but the rub is that it doesn't do a good enough job avoiding potholes and is a little too aggressive with hugging the shoulder/inside lines when you're passing someone (a trove of nails/screws/debris this time of the year).

This isn't much of an issue at the moment since I'm still rocking my 19" winter wheels. Once I go back to my Uberturbines, I'm probably going to be less likely to let FSD drive for fear of hitting a pothole and bending/curbing a wheel or putting an object through my tire.

we shall see... if the price were a bit lower (say 50.00 a month) I'd likely just subscribe for the year anyway for the occasional use... but 100/month is still a little too expensive for something I'm not sure I'd use very often. If they fixed the lane hugging issue and was a bit better at avoiding potholes I'd be more inclined to pay 100 for it.
The nice thing about where you're at, depending on just how easy it is to turn the FSD subscription off and on, is you can turn it on periodically when you're reading about problems you've seen being corrected in some release.

My experience of the last few years is that FSD has taken big strides this year, and the rate of progress is increasing. Though I haven't worked in this particular field (neural networks applied to video etc..), I have worked with those techniques in other fields (business efficiency improvement using neural net and other supervised and unsupervised learning methods), and I can tell you that the present dynamic - gargantuan amount of work with seemingly no progress, followed by phenomenal visible progress in a short time, is completely normal and to be expected on a difficult problem like this. The problem can still prove unsolvable, though I don't believe that's the case here. Any more than putting a human being on the Moon is impossible (as we've proven decades ago).

I expect to see monthly and visible progress for an extended period to come.


I also think that people waiting to adopt FSD until the cars can and do literally drive themselves to be waiting for years to come. We've got that many orders of magnitude of improvement still to come.

You'll know that we're approaching that level of accomplishment when you stop seeing posts from people about the monthly progress. They (we!) will still be receiving monthly updates, but we will stop seeing how the new version is better than the old. This is what the march of 9s (order of magnitude improvements) in the software will look like.

I figure at least a year AFTER people start saying its ready for prime time / actual self driving, is when actual self driving vehicles become possible. My time estimate ignores regulatory and social considerations, and is all about a general solution. A Waymo / Cruise type geo fenced / constrained solution won't need this quality level and I don't have an opinion about that.
 
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Great for 90% of my driving but struggling I want to babysit the other 10%

Agreed. On Sunday FSD made a great 100 mile drive for me through small towns, rural roads, interstates, state highways, and suburbia with no interventions. Today it tried to drive into a semi that was coming out of a grocery store parking lot. I'm sure it will get better, but I won't be taking after my trial ends next month.
 
Any more than putting a human being on the Moon is impossible (as we've proven decades ago).
LOL ... the classical moon fallacy.


Appeal to the Moon​

(also known as: argumentum ad lunam)

Description: Using the argument, “If we can put a man on the moon, we could...” as evidence for the argument. This is a specific form of the weak analogy.
Logical Form:
If we can put a man on the moon, we can X.
Example #1:
If we can put a man on the moon, we can cure all forms of cancer.
 
LOL ... the classical moon fallacy.


Appeal to the Moon​

(also known as: argumentum ad lunam)

Description: Using the argument, “If we can put a man on the moon, we could...” as evidence for the argument. This is a specific form of the weak analogy.
Logical Form:
If we can put a man on the moon, we can X.
Example #1:
If we can put a man on the moon, we can cure all forms of cancer.
Nice - I've never heard of that :)
 
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At first there is the novelty and wow factor. Then some struggle learning how it works, what its strengths and shortcomings are. At this point I’m getting used to it and like it a lot.

Key assets:
Overall, relaxed monitoring instead of driving
Auto lane changing
Auto park
Screen visualization

My car doesn’t have summon, so haven’t tried that.

The thing is for highway driving FSD is an asset, though not a huge difference from AP. And for most other driving, for example on city streets, suburbia, or back country roads, wouldn’t you rather be driving the car?

Still, pretty amazing, and for some worth every penny.
 
And for most other driving, for example on city streets, suburbia, or back country roads, wouldn’t you rather be driving the car?
Once you get used to it it’s great and relaxing for suburban too. You just need to really pay very close attention at intersections. And it’s very helpful in the night when it’s raining - it can literally see better than me.
 
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