I liked Lucid both for the prototype vehicle and as a potential EV producer, but this deal will be their demise. It is simply funneling cash to the people putting together the SPAC, not an investment into the company. The common stock shareholder is getting screwed.
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All discussion of Lucid Motors
- Thread starter Right_Said_Fred
- Start date
I liked Lucid both for the prototype vehicle and as a potential EV producer, but this deal will be their demise. It is simply funneling cash to the people putting together the SPAC, not an investment into the company. The common stock shareholder is getting screwed.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
S Class starts at $94,250. Very few are sold without options. The S AMG 65 tops out at about $320k.
Lucid Air currently is $70k-$170k with the Triple Motor high performance version yet to unveiled.
My guess is the Air Based Gravity SUV will start at $75k. Air Gravity will account for 100k units in their projections.
At Air reveal they teased a Model 3 competitor under car cover just outlining the shape. A Y competitor logically follows. 150k units here by 2026 sounds reasonable. Their Casa Grande AZ factory, fully built out, will have a capacity of 400k units and cost ~$2B. They need to spend $700M before Job 1 including a paint shop capable of 400k units per year.
They will also sell BES.
According to Yahoo
The transaction values Lucid at an initial pro-forma equity value of approximately $24 billion at the PIPE offer price of $15.00 per share and will provide Lucid with approximately $4.4 billion in cash (assuming no existing CCIV shares are redeemed for cash at closing).
CCIV stock tanks 27% after Lucid Motors confirms SPAC deal
dhanson865
Well-Known Member
reading comprehension problems? I specifically said they weren't a tesla killer. You seem to be in violent agreement with me that more EVs is a good thing.
If you didn't see that in my post you need to read it again.
RobStark
Well-Known Member
After Lucid said Air would get 517 miles of EPA rated range Tesla said Model S would get 520 within a couple of days.
After Lucid said Air base price was $69,990 Elon lowered Model S base price to $69,420 next day.
Lucid doing a little trolling themselves.
After Lucid said Air base price was $69,990 Elon lowered Model S base price to $69,420 next day.
Lucid doing a little trolling themselves.
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Only 26 mentions of Tesla in their presentation:
https://www.patreon.com/posts/lucid...ial&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=postshare
https://www.patreon.com/posts/lucid...ial&utm_source=twitter&utm_campaign=postshare
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
Agreed. Why is the PIPE able to buy shares at $15 and the CCIV stock is trading way above this. It appears the company could have gotten way more $$ with an IPO.
It may still spike more after the merger due to lack of liquidity. If I understand correctly all the shares are locked up (current owner, some of CCIV, and PIPE) until September.
mltv
Member
Lucid is valued at $24B at $15 price point for PIPE. At current price of $38 / $15 * $24B = $60.8B. The retail investors buying CCIV is overpay by a lot.
uujjj2
Member
CCIV shareholders got screwed. But Lucid insiders and employees and older investors got a great deal. It's a sign that CCIV was desperate for a deal and willing to take whatever terms Rawlinson dictated. I think this stock will settle in the $20/share range once the lockup expires, though it could be higher or lower depending on how the Air rollout goes.
mltv
Member
Unfortunately most of these SPAC investors has no idea that most SPAC get only at most 25% of the company. These days I see SPAC only get in the teen %. In most case, I believe you are on thin ice when you buy a SPAC above $20.
Stretch2727
Engineer and Car Nut
I bought at $17. Just a small amount of trading/play money. Did the same with QS.
I plan to sell a few days after the merger. It is surprising how many people jump into these things post merger.
Just for fun, I will vote the deal down when I get to vote. The PIPE price should be higher based on the current market price. I can see a small discount based on the lock up but not 25% of where it was trading yesterday. If they had priced in the $30-40 range it would have been more fair. They just get a lower % of the company as fewer shares issued for the $2.5B. They are smart investors and I am sure they took issue with the overall valuation this would imply.
mk677
Member
RobStark
Well-Known Member
First deliveries get pushed back from "Spring 21 to 2nd half of 2021"
Plan still calls for 6k deliveries in 2021 and 20k deliveries in 2022
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...-says-first-deliveries-have-been-delayed.html
Plan still calls for 6k deliveries in 2021 and 20k deliveries in 2022
https://www.bizjournals.com/sanjose...-says-first-deliveries-have-been-delayed.html
Interesting that they announce the delay for deliveries just after they announce the SPAC deal... Apparently quality wasn't up to par?
Doggydogworld
Active Member
Some confusion here about SPACs.
- The $15 PIPE was negotiated a while back, speculators bidding CCIV up had no bearing on it
- CCIV brought nothing to the table except a quicker, easier and less risky way to access public bubblebucks
- Saying one party "won" this deal is like saying lottery winner A got a great deal and the other ticket buyers got screwed
In hindsight, Lucid could have raised this money with less dilution via a traditional IPO. But that takes time, during which the bubble might pop (or in investment banker-speak, the window might close). There were a ton of dotcom IPOs left on the taxi way in March, 2000. You really don't die on the taxi way, weeks from takeoff, after pouring years of your life into a startup.
Lucid's schedule slip could have torpedoed a traditional IPO process. Or even worse, the bankers might have pressured Rawlinson to keep the IPO on track by shipping cars that weren't up to snuff. First-to-market Tesla survived quality snafus, latecomer Lucid is in a much different boat.
Mulally telling Rawlinson to slip the schedule and get the quality right was probably a big part of CCIV's pitch. It might have even closed the deal.
You can only judge this deal in terms of how much extra dilution Lucid suffered vs. how much timing and execution risk they avoided. Again, speculators bidding pre-deal CCIV up or not is just random noise, a complete sideshow. It's laughable to think CCIV could have said no to the PIPErs and walked away from the deal. The stock would have collapsed below 10.
- The $15 PIPE was negotiated a while back, speculators bidding CCIV up had no bearing on it
- CCIV brought nothing to the table except a quicker, easier and less risky way to access public bubblebucks
- Saying one party "won" this deal is like saying lottery winner A got a great deal and the other ticket buyers got screwed
In hindsight, Lucid could have raised this money with less dilution via a traditional IPO. But that takes time, during which the bubble might pop (or in investment banker-speak, the window might close). There were a ton of dotcom IPOs left on the taxi way in March, 2000. You really don't die on the taxi way, weeks from takeoff, after pouring years of your life into a startup.
Lucid's schedule slip could have torpedoed a traditional IPO process. Or even worse, the bankers might have pressured Rawlinson to keep the IPO on track by shipping cars that weren't up to snuff. First-to-market Tesla survived quality snafus, latecomer Lucid is in a much different boat.
Mulally telling Rawlinson to slip the schedule and get the quality right was probably a big part of CCIV's pitch. It might have even closed the deal.
You can only judge this deal in terms of how much extra dilution Lucid suffered vs. how much timing and execution risk they avoided. Again, speculators bidding pre-deal CCIV up or not is just random noise, a complete sideshow. It's laughable to think CCIV could have said no to the PIPErs and walked away from the deal. The stock would have collapsed below 10.
uujjj2
Member
So I've put in a good-until-date limit order with my broker for some CCIV/Lucid shares at what I think is a fair price, well below the current market price. We'll see if the order gets filled in the next couple of months.
I like this Lucid company, but the majority of my EV/greentech investment money is going to remain in TSLA.
I like this Lucid company, but the majority of my EV/greentech investment money is going to remain in TSLA.
uujjj2
Member
It's an engineering project at a startup. Of course it's delayed. I've worked in Silicon Valley since 2001 and I've never heard of a tech startup shipping its first product on time.
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
CCIV and CCIVWS are getting killed today (down ~15 and 30%, respectively).
Guess the retail investors didn't like how this played out, or they are cashing out early.
Guess the retail investors didn't like how this played out, or they are cashing out early.
JRP3
Hyperactive Member
bkp_duke
Well-Known Member
I won't be touching this stock anymore. I don't like how they only have ~550 reservations for the Air, and production got pushed back from "Spring 2021" to "2nd Half 2021".
I'm not Nikola-level vibe on this, but it doesn't sit right with me.
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