If this poll taken at rivianforums is correct it means Rivian will deliver ~550 trucks between now and Feb 28,2022. Rivian customer service reps delays are due to parts shortages.
Where they blindside by chip shortages? Or is Samsung not delivering 2170s?
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Rivian's November 1 S-1/A filing added a new sentence:
By the end of 2021, we intend to produce approximately 1,200 R1Ts and 25 R1Ss and deliver approximately 1,000 R1Ts and 15 R1Ss.
That was still in the Prospectus (424B4) filed 11/12/21 and represents official company guidance until they change it.
They produced 56 R1Ts from 9/14 through 10/22. They then produced 124 R1Ts in nine days to reach 180 on 10/31. Continuing that late October pace would put them at 1020 on New Year's Eve.
I don't think they planned to continue that ~14 truck per day (20/weekday?) pace, though. Auto production lines are designed for ~60 second takt time. That's roughly 500 cars per shift, or ~120k/year per shift. I figure Rivian built a "short line", with multiple steps per station and a takt time of several minutes. But even that would be 100-200 vehicles per shift.
IMHO they ran one car at a time the first 5+ weeks, with engineers carefully following each car through each station. Then in late October they ran continuous, either in short bursts or for a full shift but with one car every ~5 slots instead of one car every slot.
I consider these early trucks to be Manufacturing Verification Builds (MVBs). OEMs historically built a few hundred MVBs on the real production line 6-9 months before the start of mass production. They let employees use them as daily drivers to uncover production line problems. They never sell MVBs, instead cannibalizing or crushing them when the program ends. It only takes a few days to build the MVBs, then they shut the line down and use the 6-9 months to fix manufacturing problems the employees find. While this seems like a huge waste of time, historically there were good logistical and accounting reasons behind it.
Tesla instead sold pre-production cars to employees and friendly investor/board member types, fixing problems on the fly. Rivian seemed to be following Tesla's approach. But these delays are a sign they changed course. I don't see them delivering another 800+ R1Ts to employees this year, so the original plan must have included end-customer deliveries next month. We don't know what caused the change. Maybe supply chain, maybe some severe line problems cropped up, maybe something else.