All discussion of Rivian Automotive

[RobStark]

The RIVN IPO raised $11.9 billion, giving Rivian an initial valuation of roughly $77 billion. Not the $80B originally sought but not the $55B floated two weeks ago. As of tonight Rivian should have more cash than Tesla. Yes, Rivian is burning cash while Tesla is generating cash. Still.

RJ Scaring controls 11% of the voting power. Not all the shares have an equal 1 vote.

Rivian Eyes Major Expansion Projects On Heels Of Monster IPO

Rivian plans to build a battery factory after monster IPO provides cash infusion. Rivian stock has soared 67% so far this week.

www.investors.com

 

[RobStark]

Rivian is looking to produce 1 million vehicles annually by the end of the decade

Rivian may only be starting its initial production activities, but the company has already announced some of its ambitious goals for the end of the decade. As per CEO RJ Scaringe in an interview ahead of the company’s market debut on the Nasdaq, Rivian is planning to build at least one million...

www.teslarati.com

 

[MikeC]

Anyone know when RIVN options start trading? Thinking about selling some call spreads.

 

[RobStark]

Rivian debuts at #6 with a $98.66B Market Cap.

 

[Todd Burch]

Nothing against Rivian and I wish them well…but they are way overvalued compared to where Tesla was with an equivalent valuation. They still have much to prove.

I suspect the stock will come back to earth a bit once the initial IPO excitement fades and the reality of the challenges ahead of them hit home.

 

[Doggydogworld]

Nothing against Rivian and I wish them well…but they are way overvalued compared to where Tesla was with an equivalent valuation.

We didn't have sky-high GMEs, AMCs, 68k Bitcoin, etc. at that time, either.

I suspect the stock will come back to earth a bit once the initial IPO excitement fades and the reality of the challenges ahead of them hit home.

RIVN can easily drop 50% for no good reason. Or it could double by next week.That's just life in a bubble.

If/when the bubble pops RIVN, LCID, GME, AMC, etc. will all crash. But they won't be alone. AMZN dropped 90% when the dotcom bubble popped. CSCO is still below its bubble high, set 21+ years ago, even though revenue is up 10x. Invest accordingly.

 

[BigDawgz]

Nothing against Rivian and I wish them well…but they are way overvalued compared to where Tesla was with an equivalent valuation. They still have much to prove.

I suspect the stock will come back to earth a bit once the initial IPO excitement fades and the reality of the challenges ahead of them hit home.

Yes but when Tesla was at point the viability of electric vehicles was extremely uncertain, now thanks to Tesla, that uncertainty isn't just removed but EV's are viewed as the only way forward.

That said I still think Rivian is way overvalued

 

[RobStark]

Yes, RIVN is a sentiment/story stock.

It could drop 75% next week and RIVN# will pat themselves on the back and say " See, finally some rationality to the market."

Or it could rise 75% next week and leave RIVN# dumbfounded, bewildered and broke.

Rivian has the right product at the right time. The Street will look at them under a microscope to judge for execution and extrapolate for the next decade.

Additionally to what others have said, I think 2 years ago The Street assumed all or almost all legacy OEMs would survive The Transition. Could Tesla muscle their way to 2-5% global market share? Now, I think The Street assumes many/most legacy OEMs will not survive. So this leaves an open runway for startups. Most startups will fail. But a least a few will survive.

 

[MXWing]

Rivian has a tremendous backstop in Papa Bozos.

It doesn't matter if Tesla can build a cheaper delivery van. We know who Amazon is buying from.

Rivian has to do REALLY badly to pierce the 78 level.

I hate to say it but the risk/reward seems good for a limited position with them.

 

[RobStark]

$2.2B isn't $294B.

But I hear the first $B is the hardest.

 

[alloverx]

Be ironic if Amazon has made enough money from the IPO to pay for their vans.

 

[Spacep0d]

Yes but when Tesla was at point the viability of electric vehicles was extremely uncertain, now thanks to Tesla, that uncertainty isn't just removed but EV's are viewed as the only way forward.

That said I still think Rivian is way overvalued

This. EVs are the future, and Tesla cleared the way. Rivian has strong Amazon support as investor and client. Huge backstop so little chance of the company going under anytime soon. The truck looks good and has some good early reviews. It's futuristic looking with a nod to tradition and well-known truck utility so it'll have mass appeal. I love the Cybertruck too but this aesthetic may be more polarizing (strong pre-orders regardless). Rivian is over-valued but I think they'll grow into those big shoes they have to fill. I'm HODLing.

 

[Bouba]

Is Elon going to share his superchargers with Rivian?

 

[scubastevo80]

This. EVs are the future, and Tesla cleared the way. Rivian has strong Amazon support as investor and client. Huge backstop so little chance of the company going under anytime soon. The truck looks good and has some good early reviews. It's futuristic looking with a nod to tradition and well-known truck utility so it'll have mass appeal. I love the Cybertruck too but this aesthetic may be more polarizing (strong pre-orders regardless). Rivian is over-valued but I think they'll grow into those big shoes they have to fill. I'm HODLing.

I like the Rivian and their mission but there’s a difference to selling $75k+ trucks and ~$50k vehicles profitably and in volume. Does Rivian have a plan to bring electric vehicles to other segments of the market. Amazon and Ford backing Rivian doesn’t mean a whole lot to me. The government backed GM and look where they are today… making EV claims they’ll likely not be able to deliver on.

 

[Bouba]

It will be a strange future where Amazon are delivering in their Rivian electric trucks but their competitors will be using driverless Teslas

 

[H Mak]

That and I think RIVN is stealing some of the thunder right now, as it's still the new "hot" EV/tech stock. RIVN up 5% currently.

Rivian is now the 118th largest company in the world. The names it has overtaken is like a who's who of famous companies. IBM to name just one. Mad.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - page 2

 

[madodel]

Rivian is now the 118th largest company in the world. The names it has overtaken is like a who's who of famous companies. IBM to name just one. Mad.

Companies ranked by Market Cap - page 2

Just wait until they actual start selling vehicles. Nothing will stop them. Unlike TSLA that just grows 50% a year, that will be infinity growth.

 

[Todd Burch]

(Does math)

Rivian should be worth more than Tesla in a few weeks.

 

[woodisgood]

(Does math)

Rivian should be worth more than Tesla in a few weeks.

And why not? They’re using as much of Tesla’s playbook as they possibly can. What could go wrong?

 

[elasalle]

(Does math)

Rivian should be worth more than Tesla in a few weeks.

Holding period over in few weeks, early investors gonna unload.
Options etc available after 5 days, so people are waiting

Right now Rivian is trading without any market friction, it's skating on ice

If you should go skating
On the thin ice of modern life
Dragging behind you the silent reproach
Of a million tear-stained eyes
Don't be surprised when a crack in the ice
Appears under your feet
You slip out of your depth and out of your mind
With your fear flowing out behind you
As you claw the thin ice
- "If you don't know the song, you don't know Rock music )

+ Wishing all EV companies the best, but market Cap seems absurd and should come back to reality.