- Tesla 3M
- Everyone else 2M?
"Everyone else" sold 5.5m EVs last year. 3.5m BEVs, 2m PHEVs. Figure ~8m this year, maybe a bit less due to supply chain and war. 2024? I can only guess somewhere in the 12-15m range. Europe is scheduled to level off the next couple years before ramping again in 2025. China is now 56% of the market and gov't support seems strong but is unpredictable. A few years ago they suddenly changed subsidies and had three years of nearly flat EV sales.
Plug-in share is above 20% now in both China and Europe. The US lacks the regulations need to force that many sales, so is a huge laggard at 4-5%.
Looking at individual auto groups, BYD should do 1.3-1.4m this year. Almost all China, so figure 2.5m in 2024 if gov't support stays strong. They went from 80% BEV to almost 50/50 last year. Dolphin should tilt the scales back toward BEV somewhat.
VW Group has 600k MEB capacity in China with another 300k coming this year. Unfortunately MEB demand in China is closer to 100k, lol. They have factory capacity for almost 1m BEVs in Europe, including non-MEBs like eUP, e-tron and Taycan/e-tron GT. They do need most of that due to 95g. Chattanooga has ~100k capacity now with plans to expand for 2024 Buzz production. So 2m++ "capacity" in 2024, maybe 1.5m in use.
Ford's 600k run rate in (late) 2023 is the only other capacity number I've seen. 95g forces Stellantis, Daimler and BMW to sell EVs. With overseas added in they should collectively be over 1m this year. Figure 1.5-2.0m in 2024. They are PHEV-heavy in Europe, tilting toward BEV over time.
SAIC could hit 1m this year, but that's largely due to the $4.5k Hongguang Mini made by their SGMW JV. Even with more expensive variants they aren't a real player in terms of revenue.
Hyundai/Kia and Geely/Volvo should be in the half-million range this year. Maybe Renault/Nissan, too, though they seem to have dropped off the map lately. Figure 2m total for these three in 2024? Just a guess, really.