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All discussion of Rivian Automotive
- Thread starter RobStark
- Start date
Feels like they are having issues ramping up. The difference between vehicles produced and delivered could be due to how they are delivering them, meaning the delivery methods might not be going so smoothly. These are growing pains Rivian will be dealing with for quite some time I think.
It is an opportunity lost for sure. When you look at how many gas guzzler pickups, Ford and GM and Ram sell every day and compare that to 25k a year for Rivian, that is not even a drop in the bucket.
Combine that with the Rivian company bragged about being in stealth mode for 8 years, you would think they could have been better prepared for this moment.
That gap doesn't bother me. There's a ton of friction in the new system. The delivery system is new employees with a novel vehicles and new vendors.
If they are well manage the message is to not deliver defects to customers. In the days of yore Tesla was very careful. In my view Tesla got extra scorn when they became less careful due to expectations they set in the beginning.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a 'small appetizer'
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe is warning that the upcoming battery shortage is going to make the current chip shortage look...
electrek.co
Electrek: Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a ‘small appetizer’. Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a 'small appetizer'
It’s the beginning of the end of fossil fuel-powered consumer vehicles — as far as Scaringe is concerned. The 39-year-old believes production and sales of such vehicles will come to an end in his lifetime, sooner rather than later. Without putting an exact date on it, Scaringe said the end of that era is likely closer to 20 years from now rather than 50 years, with companies forced to move way from fossil fuels out of necessity as well as potential pressures from Wall Street and regulators. “Most countries around the world will stop selling gas engine-powered cars. The scale of the shift is hard to fully appreciate,” he said. “The challenge is whether it’s driven by policy or not. The businesses that are going to survive are the ones that recognize that the end state for combustion is zero.”
Rivian plans to have enough supply of batteries and chips to produce 25,000 vehicles this year – half of what it previously planned. Many automakers who have decades of experience managing large supply chains are finding themselves having serious difficulties securing supplies to make electric vehicles. And as Scaringe warns, it is likely only the beginning, and the next few decades could prove extremely difficult.
If only someone had predicted this back in 2013 when Giga Nevada was being planned … oh wait.Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a 'small appetizer'
Rivian CEO RJ Scaringe is warning that the upcoming battery shortage is going to make the current chip shortage look...
Electrek: Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a ‘small appetizer’. Rivian CEO warns that battery shortage is going to make chip supply issue look like a 'small appetizer'
It’s the beginning of the end of fossil fuel-powered consumer vehicles — as far as Scaringe is concerned. The 39-year-old believes production and sales of such vehicles will come to an end in his lifetime, sooner rather than later. Without putting an exact date on it, Scaringe said the end of that era is likely closer to 20 years from now rather than 50 years, with companies forced to move way from fossil fuels out of necessity as well as potential pressures from Wall Street and regulators. “Most countries around the world will stop selling gas engine-powered cars. The scale of the shift is hard to fully appreciate,” he said. “The challenge is whether it’s driven by policy or not. The businesses that are going to survive are the ones that recognize that the end state for combustion is zero.”
Rivian plans to have enough supply of batteries and chips to produce 25,000 vehicles this year – half of what it previously planned. Many automakers who have decades of experience managing large supply chains are finding themselves having serious difficulties securing supplies to make electric vehicles. And as Scaringe warns, it is likely only the beginning, and the next few decades could prove extremely difficult.
Both shortages are demand driven. But I expect what has changed is auto manufacturers realizing that they can't secure enough batteries even with several years advanced planning.
Rivian seems to be in a particularly poor position as they need many kwh per vehicle. Looking several years into the future I expect Rivian having less margin per vehicle than the model Y while needing to secure twice the cells. My reason to not purchase a Rivian next year would likely be driven by not seeing a path to long term viability.
So does cell availability improve in 2-3 years or is this a decade long problem? Optimistically there is a great deal of capital in the world chasing opportunity.
Cell supply might be the final nail in the coffin for Rivian. It doesnt take a crystal ball to see what’s going to happen now that everyone else wants to buy cells. Cell prices are going to escalate leaving companies like Rivian with hard choices. Do they pay top dollar for good cells? Gamble and buy cheaper cells? Hike prices again on their trucks?
Meanwhile Tesla will be the only company with mining agreements and in house cell production. They will continue to be the low cost leader in whatever EV vehicle segment they choose to enter. People turn themselves into pretzels trying to figure out how Tesla will eventually hit 20M vehicles per year. With current market dynamics, Tesla can sell out of whatever vehicle they make, so you don’t have to figure it out.
I am still looking forward to buy a Rivian SUV, and will probably give it up for an eventual Tesla down the road when Tesla starts making new types of cars.
Meanwhile Tesla will be the only company with mining agreements and in house cell production. They will continue to be the low cost leader in whatever EV vehicle segment they choose to enter. People turn themselves into pretzels trying to figure out how Tesla will eventually hit 20M vehicles per year. With current market dynamics, Tesla can sell out of whatever vehicle they make, so you don’t have to figure it out.
I am still looking forward to buy a Rivian SUV, and will probably give it up for an eventual Tesla down the road when Tesla starts making new types of cars.
Most new investment in battery isn't revealed, although Tesla is clearly in a a superior position.
Rivian is probably advanced enough that they can survive as a brand if not as an independent company. And they have the Amazon ownership.
By mid last decade Tesla would have survived as a brand if they ran out of money. In both companies it would be a big loss for investors, but owners might be OK.
The Rivian investment forums sound just like the Tesla investment of old. I can see Rivian being successful, but Tesla is a once in a century company.
Rivian is probably advanced enough that they can survive as a brand if not as an independent company. And they have the Amazon ownership.
By mid last decade Tesla would have survived as a brand if they ran out of money. In both companies it would be a big loss for investors, but owners might be OK.
The Rivian investment forums sound just like the Tesla investment of old. I can see Rivian being successful, but Tesla is a once in a century company.
Merrill
Merrill
If Tesla would make a viable F-150 type truck I would buy in a hot second, but the CT is stupid.
GM just announced an agreement with Glencore for cobalt.
GM is finishing its first battery cell factory in a JV with LG in Ohio and about to break ground on a second in Tennessee and the GM board approved two more.
Ford has announced 3 cell factories. VW has several cell factories cooking as well.
Even at this early stage it appears Rivian is hiring like mad to develop their own cell IP. And RJ has stated they intend to have their own manufacturing capacity as well.
It looks like CATL will be coming to set up shop in the USA.
An R1T is more capable than a Model Y and customers will be willing to pay more for it.
Demand for cells is exploding. But so is capacity. Capacity won't catchup to demand anytime soon but the gap won't be as large as you suggest.
Rivian isn't in a coffin. Much less are there nails in said coffin.
mspohr
Well-Known Member
They are betting on the wrong chemistry. The smart money is going to LFP (no cobalt or nickel) batteries. They are cheaper, more cycles, can be charged to 100% and their volumetric/gravimetric density is rapidly improving.
Tesla has LFP batteries in half of its new cars. Legacy auto is way behind (again).
I wish Revian the best; That’s just an ugly looking front grill on the truck
Sorry but those headlights design are just ugly 
look like 
eyes 
Quality technology and built but damm ugly fro grill headlightsHolding period over in few weeks, early investors gonna unload.
Options etc available after 5 days, so people are waiting
Right now Rivian is trading without any market friction, it's skating on ice
If you should go skating
On the thin ice of modern life
Dragging behind you the silent reproach
Of a million tear-stained eyes
Don't be surprised when a crack in the ice
Appears under your feet
You slip out of your depth and out of your mind
With your fear flowing out behind you
As you claw the thin ice
+ Wishing all EV companies the best, but market Cap seems absurd and should come back to reality.
I don't believe LFP is cheaper currently. LFP may not be appropriate for cold climates. Looks to me like range goes to zero in subzero conditions if not plugged in.
But high cycle cells allow a vehicle plugged into a house to provide electricity arbitrage in addition to backup. 100% daily charge also makes it more appropriate for backup.
Rivian has a lot of pack volume so their LFP version should be attractive, particularly with their future inverters.
But high cycle cells allow a vehicle plugged into a house to provide electricity arbitrage in addition to backup. 100% daily charge also makes it more appropriate for backup.
Rivian has a lot of pack volume so their LFP version should be attractive, particularly with their future inverters.
Tesla is betting on non-LFP chemistries.
Tesla purchased all their LFP batteries from CATL and maybe other Chinese cell manufactures. Neither Tesla nor Panasonic manufactured a single LFP cell for a Tesla Model 3 or Model Y.
Tesla research up til now at least has been on non-LFP chemistries.
Chinese companies have all the IP for LFP. Rivian can buy all their LFP batteries from Chinese manufactures for their standard pack cars. Just like Tesla. And buy/manufacture nickel based cells for the large/medium range packs and max/long range packs.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
So Tesla's investment in 4680 is dumb money? Investment in the Berlin and Austin factories is dumb money because they only use 2170 and 4680? (Remember., cylindrical LFP doesn't really make sense and Musk specifically said they don't do it).
I've been touting LFP for years, and I agree legacy is lagging (should call them lagacy, ha). But LFP is for mainstream, not premium. There will be plenty of demand for cobalt and manganese.
