Am at a loss: is the $2k FSD offer going away on Monday?

[OCR1]

We bought EAP on our first M3, but on the second one which I’m awaiting delivery on I’m not purchasing AP or FSD. I think it could be 3 years or longer before FSD is reliable and makes it through regulatory hurdles. At that point I’m going to have to think about whether I want to spend $8K, or whatever it costs years from now, to upgrade technology in a 3+ year old car. By then I suspect Tesla will have made many other improvements to their cars as well.

I look at the M3 like an IPhone on wheels, and I will not have the same IPhone 3-5 years from now that I have today. I don’t see why it will be any different for my car going forward. Technology is changing too rapidly to hold on to these cars for 10 years.

 

[MrMannilow]

Oh dear f'ing God people, stop all the whining! Here is your opportunity to get in on the ground level of FSD, with new hardware, and new features for cheap and all you can do is whine. Put down your cold, hard cash and get on board. If not, no big deal. But don't come back whining later when it now costs more, say $10000, and that you deserve those features because yada yada yada, and Elon is so terrible to charge you $10000, that you just couldn't make a decision at the time because of how fragile it all made you feel. :Rollseyes: Either support Tesla or don't, your choice. Tesla will be rewarded those who bought when they could, and right now it's a steal.

I've had it with the company and I'm still waiting to see how the Y looks as its a much better fit for me than the 3 I rushed to buy for tax savings that was pointless. I hate I love the product so much and despise the company and tactics and lack of service. I'll loose my ass to trade the 3 on the Y

 

[Knightshade]

Someone testing FSD told me it already mostly works. It makes mistakes and doesn’t recognize stuff sometimes, hence a driver needs to be in control lik AP. Not sure if the first version will run on 2.5. I think Tesla stopped selling it for $3k because the super high end graphics card is worth at least $2k with install.

If you think graphics cards are cheap look up how much a 2080ti graphics card is ($1400ish) and this is likely much faster. Manufacturing cost is high.

So first- it's not the same thing as a commercial graphics card, though it uses some of the same types of parts.. and second, Tesla explicitly said MFG costs are about the same as the 2.5 chip that is a few years old now (some of the savings coming from making their own instead of having to buy/license from Nvidia) and the 2.x chip uses Nvidias GP106 graphics chip- which is commercially the GTX 1060. Which today sells for about $250 at retail (ie with a markup).

 

[ngogas]

need to take some motion sickness medicine from all these car prices roller coasteering. lol

 

[Powered By Jay]

Looking forward to the end of next quarter just before the tax credit gets cut in half again. I wonder what the price cuts will be like then.

 

[dnvr-ev]

So first- it's not the same thing as a commercial graphics card, though it uses some of the same types of parts.. and second, Tesla explicitly said MFG costs are about the same as the 2.5 chip that is a few years old now (some of the savings coming from making their own instead of having to buy/license from Nvidia) and the 2.x chip uses Nvidias GP106 graphics chip- which is commercially the GTX 1060. Which today sells for about $250 at retail (ie with a markup).

I don’t believe that a card that is equivilent to 10 Nvidia cards can be built for $250.

 

[DB-Cooper]

For $2,000, the web site says I'm buying:

Adding this option today means you will be one of the first to experience full self-driving when it becomes available in the future.

That doesn't even sound like a product, it sounds like early access to features. LOL

 

[Knightshade]

I don’t believe that a card that is equivilent to 10 Nvidia cards can be built for $250.

and I don't believe it needs to be that to do highly accelerated NN processing.

You seem to keep thinking the AP computer needs to play 4k video games or something.


Again, Tesla themselves, on their official investor call (where there's serious legal penalties for material representation of financial facts) says their cost on HW3 is about the same as it has been for HW2.5.

The fact they aren't changing prices on the cars when they switch from 2.5 in every car to 3 in every car supports that statement of fact from Tesla.

And HW2.5s GPU is equivalent to a $250 video card today at retail (which means the actual GPU chip, the only part Nvidia is using in the Tesla computer, would be a lot LESS than 250).

 

[realvvk]

In the last few weeks we have seen some pretty major developments on the Tesla front: bond payment, $35k M3, major price swings, store closing announcements, MY, etc., etc. To me it all smells of desperation. Something is happening that is causing all this. I consider these to be signs of trouble. So here's my take on the FSD upgrade before Monday: if enough people give Tesla $2k in the next few days, it may help save the company. Saving the company that supports my MS and without which it becomes a $100k paperweight for only $2k seems like a wise investment to me. Of course they cannot come out and say it this way but we can read between the lines. Consider it money well spent.

 

[dnvr-ev]

In the last few weeks we have seen some pretty major developments on the Tesla front: bond payment, $35k M3, major price swings, store closing announcements, MY, etc., etc. To me it all smells of desperation. Something is happening that is causing all this. I consider these to be signs of trouble. So here's my take on the FSD upgrade before Monday: if enough people give Tesla $2k in the next few days, it may help save the company. Saving the company that supports my MS and without which it becomes a $100k paperweight for only $2k seems like a wise investment to me. Of course they cannot come out and say it this way but we can read between the lines. Consider it money well spent.

I hope you are wrong.

 

[dnvr-ev]

and I don't believe it needs to be that to do highly accelerated NN processing.

You seem to keep thinking the AP computer needs to play 4k video games or something.


Again, Tesla themselves, on their official investor call (where there's serious legal penalties for material representation of financial facts) says their cost on HW3 is about the same as it has been for HW2.5.

The fact they aren't changing prices on the cars when they switch from 2.5 in every car to 3 in every car supports that statement of fact from Tesla.

And HW2.5s GPU is equivalent to a $250 video card today at retail (which means the actual GPU chip, the only part Nvidia is using in the Tesla computer, would be a lot LESS than 250).

Processing over a half dozen simultaneous HD streams would absolutely required an insanely fast graphics. Its not just viewing hd feeds from all cameras, but processing the data inside of it to make decisions. Maybe they have made some insane breakthrough in technology that they need to sell to gamers. Maybe the graphics card is so fast that the other processing hardware is no longer required. Their wording is so ambiguous.

 

[Knightshade]

Processing over a half dozen simultaneous HD streams would absolutely required an insanely fast graphics.

Again, not really.

Given it's 720p video. At 30 fps.

 

[rachelhikes]

I bought AP for $2K today. Still mulling over FSD for $3K. The current value proposition for FSD is poor, but it looks like that's where the future action is going to be, and the announced additions for surface street driving do seem interesting. Should I buy now, while its cheap but not worth that much, or wait, and get more but also likely pay more? Decisions, decisions...

 

[dnvr-ev]

Again, not really.

Given it's 720p video. At 30 fps.

Let’s hope someone from the Giggle Factory explains it to us then. If they have created a self driving car with a $250 brain, then we can say goodbye to driver jobs forever.

 

[Thomas Edison]

How can there be no legal jargon for what you’re purchasing? This is a several thousand dollar purchase.

 

[realvvk]

I hope you are wrong.

I hope I am wrong, too

 

[Knightshade]

Let’s hope someone from the Giggle Factory explains it to us then. If they have created a self driving car with a $250 brain, then we can say goodbye to driver jobs forever.

There's pretty much 0 chance of getting L5 driving out of HW3 (and the sensor suite currently in tesla cars) so driver jobs are just fine (also likely why Tesla walked back what FSD offers a substantial amount lately).

I think there's a pretty excellent shot at L3/4 on divided highways though, once regulation isn't a mishmash of 50 different sets of state regulations (or lack thereof)... which would honestly be plenty for me as far as value out of FSD.

 

[Runt8]

Processing over a half dozen simultaneous HD streams would absolutely required an insanely fast graphics. Its not just viewing hd feeds from all cameras, but processing the data inside of it to make decisions. Maybe they have made some insane breakthrough in technology that they need to sell to gamers. Maybe the graphics card is so fast that the other processing hardware is no longer required. Their wording is so ambiguous.

Creating specialized hardware to do a single task very quickly doesn't require a breakthrough in technology. Graphics cards do a lot of things that are not related to neural networks, and the programmable architecture that makes graphics cards useful for certain tasks is not the most optimal solution for running a neural network. While a neural network can be run on a graphics card, pretty much every company that is serious about NN is designing their own hardware. So trying to compare the custom chip Tesla has designed to anything from NVIDIA is pointless.

 

[hashraf]

For those you bought AP and/or FSD in the last couple days, did you have to pay sales taxes?

 

[rachelhikes]

I contacted Tesla support. A purchase of FSD at the current price will include HW3 when it becomes available. That definitely makes it more attractive. Still:

Positive: The price is low compared with prior prices.

Negative: The major features - traffic lights and stop sign support, HW3 - are still in the future with no fixed delivery date.

I still have a few days to decide. (Probably - with Elon you never know for sure.)