From an economic point of view what is the cost to Tesla of having 100,000 cars out there or 100,001 cars. The software is already developed. It's likely going to come down to a processor or board swap in the car. This could be a $100-200. So in theory the price will likely never rise above $5k as they've seen it puts off too many sales. Tesla seemed to have proved with it's recent fire sale that AP and FSD are worth a lot less marginal cost. The physical cost to Tesla of 1 more AP sale is $0 (or the cost of somebody switching a button and sending a software update to your car) - maybe $1 for 5min of somebody on minimum wage.
-
Want to remove ads? Register an account and login to see fewer ads, and become a Supporting Member to remove almost all ads.
Am at a loss: is the $2k FSD offer going away on Monday?
- Thread starter e-FTW
- Start date
From an economic point of view what is the cost to Tesla of having 100,000 cars out there or 100,001 cars. The software is already developed. It's likely going to come down to a processor or board swap in the car. This could be a $100-200. So in theory the price will likely never rise above $5k as they've seen it puts off too many sales. Tesla seemed to have proved with it's recent fire sale that AP and FSD are worth a lot less marginal cost. The physical cost to Tesla of 1 more AP sale is $0 (or the cost of somebody switching a button and sending a software update to your car) - maybe $1 for 5min of somebody on minimum wage.
I was saying what the argument was, you dont have ( and obviously dont) agree with it. I have said repeatedly that I paid 2k for the upgrade, because I think I will get it "eventually" or in specific elon speak "long term", whatever that means. I happen to think that "long term" means they will put HW3 in new cars, and retrofit older cars at "some point" when the HW 2.5 they have wont run the new features.
"I" am ok with that, because in tesla land, the longer you wait for a piece of hardware, the better chance you get something that has been upgraded. If they take a year to give me the new HW3, I am ok with that. Others may not be.
So, regardless of my "hesitancy" I voted with my wallet, which is the most powerful way one can vote. One thing I dont understand, and have said this also in this very thread, is why some people think that another persons choice has to be "wrong" on how to spend their own money. That goes both ways.
Those who want to spend the money, thats their choice (like mine). It doesnt make people who choose not to spend it "wrong". For those who dont want to spend the money, that does not make someone who does "wrong". We seem to exist in this state where everyone feels like they need to "win" a discussion. This aint that kind of discussion.
Someone who buys a BMW over a tesla is not "wrong" and neither is someone who does the reverse, regardless of what people say.
It seems very difficult to have a discussion with pro's and cons without people coming out on both sides to attack each other. Why is that? (rhetorical question, I know why that is).
Im the one that said 4 hours, and I was told that by the head technician at my local service center. The qualifier was "with removing, and reinstalling the computer, AND PROGRAMING THE FIRMWARE, its about a 4 hour job" . No telling how long that firmware programming takes for example. The "book time" might be 4 hours but the actual hardware swap could be 30-45 minutes. Both could be true.
So since we take tweets as legally binding.. Those of us that have EAP will still get advanced summon and auto park?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Long term from the context of what he was replying to pretty clearly meant the upgrade is an ongoing thing, not like "only people who buy this week get upgraded- but anybody, long term, who buys FSD, gets the upgrade"
No idea since I never claimed that.
If folks don't want to buy FSD because they don't think it'll work well enough for them, or offer anything useful to them, personally, or not enough, then don't buy it. It's your money.
My objection was people not buying because they're still "not sure" the HW3 upgrade is included for FSD buyers. You have to do some absolutely astounding, confounding, and nonsensical sounding thinking to still think that at this point.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
You don't need tweets for that. Those were explicitly included EAP features when EAP was its own product so they're "owed" to existing owners.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Can you cite some specific quotes? Because few of those sound like specific promises on physical deliverables given for specific potentially future purchases, but we'd have to see exactly what was said....
Battery swapping actually happened for a while- but was eventually shut down in favor of supercharger deployment (one of Teslas smarter decisions honestly), so that's not an example of what I asked for at all.
For example with the MCU thing IIRC the only thing he said, and this was after MCU2 was already coming in all new cars, was that older cars "could" have the MCU swapped out- not that Tesla was going to offer it as a specific service (and again this'd only be impacting already bought cars anyway)- but maybe I missed a quote where he promised more than that and did so regarding something they were still selling?
The Advanced Summon bit's turning out to be true, just taking longer than expected... I'm not aware of anything he said/promised in this vein about the FSD video either, got a quote or something?
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Which doesn't actually exist, so that's not really a "fact"
I'm not sure "imaginary contract doesn't confirm the promise the company has repeatedly and explicitly made in multiple other places and sources, including the official quarterly call on their own website" is a compelling counter-argument to the actual facts.
diamond.g
Active Member
Has anyone who purchased FSD after the fact gotten a purchase agreement and be willing to post it here? I got FSD in my car, but my purchase agreement doesn't mention what that entails (technically it didn't mention what EAP was in my old car either).
Sorry, I just have too respond to your simplistic statement.... I can buy retail 10 Nvidia cards for $249. Are you a human?
...shoulda been a little more specific on capabilities of such a card...
Let's go down that rabbit hole... You seem to think there is a nefarious "reason" it isn't on the order page. But what if Tesla is just lazy about putting very detailed information on the website. What will you say if Tesla DOES add an HW3 upgrade statement on the page. Do you just say ohh my bad, or will you just change your argument or try to walk back your past statements?
I would encourage everyone to be a little measured in your positions, no matter how right you think you are because someone is going to be wrong and their character will be defined more by what their statements are when they turn out to be wrong.
Ehh who am I kidding, the people who end up being wrong won't care and they will just move on to make other crazy statements!
Sorry, I just have too respond to your simplistic statement.... I can buy retail 10 Nvidia cards for $249. Are you a human?
...shoulda been a little more specific on capabilities of such a card...
Gotcha. Someone claimed that Hw 2.5 only has a 1060 and the new Tesla built cards is equivalent to 10x 1060’s and yet it only costs $250 to make.
Until Tesla explains what exactly it is or someone does a breakdown video on youtube, I cannot personally imagine that it only costs $250 for a liquid cooled super computer, whether neural or not, asic or not, that analyzes video streams breaking apart feeds at 2000 frames per second, recognizing onjects in 360, and commanding a car all while watching gps, sensors, and checking with a database of likely millions of road and intersection variables all in real time.
Why? Because quality and reliability cost money. Tesla spends a fortune now manufacturing their cars. They don’t cut corners on parts and even an iphone costs $250+ to build in China. We are talking an American built device from quality components.
I may be completely wrong and Tesla has genius software that can run on a Chromebook. I just can’t wrap my head around a $250 computer having that kind of power.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Literally nobody claimed that.
One person did point out the GPU in HW2.5 was the same as in the Nvidia 1060, which only costs about $250 though
And that HW3 costs about the same as the 2.5 computer though, while doing the job Tesla needs of it 10 times faster.
Which is a hugely different statement from the one you're suggesting.
HW3 would be simply worthless as a video card, because that's not what it's actually designed to be. It's a neural net accelerator.
HW2.5 is a GPU they happened to re-purpose to ACT as one.
Meanwhile- back in reality-They've had absolute crap auto wipers since 2017 now because they're trying to save $2 a car leaving out an actual rain sensor
Funny you should mention that.
The entire phone might cost that much, but the main chip in it costs vastly less.
Guess who designed HW3?
Same dude who designed the main chip in a previous iphone.
You are.
Dedicated single-job hardware is much much cheaper to make fast than generic "can do lots of different things" hardware.
GPUs got so popular for so many diverse applications because they were great at doing a lot of different things relatively decently. But dedicated hardware will always be much faster and cheaper if designed that way from the ground up for a given job- which is what HW3 is.
Neural or not, dedicated or not, we are still talking 2,000 frames of video per second. Now each frame has to be analyzed and processed in real time to a degree that is an order of magnitude greater than autopilot requires. In the end it all breaks down to computation no matter what you call it or what its designed for. It’s still a computer analyzing video streams, a very conventional task.
You can buy a 4k security system that records 8 streams for about $700. But we are not recording here. We are analyzing each frame.
Nothing cheap built to date has that kind of processing power. I gave an example of a liquid cooled high end graphics card costing over a $1,000. Why does it cost so much? Because it’s made out of quality components that can withstand high heat, voltage, and can reliably operate for years.
I have absolutely been told on here that the hardware is cheap to build. All I said is that I don’t think it is. Then I get lectured about how its neural and dedicated.
All I’m saying is that I think it’s a $1,000 part. I may be wrong, but I would have to see it to believe it is only $250.
SomeJoe7777
Marginally-Known Member
Given that it's Tesla's own design, the actual cost then depends on if you amortize the R&D into each produced unit or not. Once you have the silicon designed, then hardware fabrication by itself is likely to be quite cheap. But they're going to spend millions on R&D to develop it.
This differs from retail or market prices for equivalent functionality like the NVidia GPUs which have all of those costs built-in to each unit sold.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Which is a task a GPU is not, even slightly, designed to actually do. It's doing it via brute force in large part.
Whereas designing a part whose job is specifically that, it requires WAY less brute force/power to do it.
no, it really does not
Let me give you a great example.
Emulators.
Generally speaking, making one CPU emulate a vastly different one requires a lot more horsepower than the CPU it is emulating.
So to take a "generic" part never intended to run the original code you might need 10x the speed to get the same performance the original, much less objectively powerful, but dedicated to running that original code chip needed to do the exact same job.
Same thing here, but in reverse.
A generic part (the GPU) that was doing the HW2 job with largely brute force, can be replaced, at much higher performance, with a dedicated, custom-designed-for-the-actual-single-job, part at a similar cost.
Also wrong.
A consumer video card is mostly rendering video, not analyzing it.
Those are vastly different tasks.
Yes- that is, in fact, why Tesla hired a team to spend years custom building something that does that specific job cheaply
If an off the shelf part did it they wouldn't have bothered.
And is not even remotely designed to do the actual thing the HW3 computer is designed to do, so it's a pretty pointless example to bring up.
Yes, but you're factually wrong about pretty much everything on this topic, this is no exception.
one persons lecture is a more willing-to-learn-he's-wrong persons education.
Again- you are.
Knightshade
Well-Known Member
They didn't.
It was pointed out the GPU used in HW2.5 (when attached to an entire consumer video card and sold as the GTX 1060) costs $250, and once again dnvr-ev whipped out his Jump to Conclusions mat)
Similar threads
