Anti-EV comments heard on my roadtrip so far

Having visited 44/50 US states and 250/424 US national parks in the past year in my LR Model 3, I’ve heard a lot of dumb questions.
Here are a few. (Links go to my non-commercial Wordpress blog about my EV parks travels without ads).
“What do you do about rain and puddles? Is that thing even waterproof?” — owner who saw me park in front of his Wyoming hotel in the rain.
“Well, those things don’t have much range” — heard through my EV car window in Teddy Roosevelt ND, Canyon de Chelly AZ, Gila Cliff Dwellings NM, Great Basin NV, Big Hole MT, Sand Creek Massacre CO, Dinosaur UT, Nicodemus KS, etc.
“Costs about the same to fill up as my truck, right?” — guy putting 35 gallons into his Ford F250 at $6 per gallon in California last year.
“But don’t you miss the romance? I love the roar, vibration, and sheer power of my Mustang.” — dude at red light before I hit 60 mph in 3 seconds.
“What do you do when you’re charging?” — discussion at Starbucks, burger joint, rest room, hotel, campground, museum, and while watching base jumpers at Snake River Canyon in ID.
“How do I plug in?” — unfortunate couple at remote TX Supercharger who rented a non-Tesla from Hertz without the slightest clue about EV’s, nor cables, nor adapters, nor PlugShare. But they were Premium Hertz members.
Interested how many of you hear similar comments about EV’s.

"Tesla Supercharger" by Open Grid Scheduler / Grid Engine is marked with CC0 1.0.
Admin note: Image added for Blog Feed thumbnail

 

[THEbuz]

Well in fairness . . .

I’m fairness what

Well in fairness . . .

“In fairness” what????

 

[THEbuz]

People trust their preferred media sources, while you and your silly claims of "proof" can be safely ignored.

For me, the amazing bit about the Tesla story is that the company would have failed long ago if their vehicles weren't the phenomenal things that they are. It is only their tremendous capabilities that caused so many people to be so vocal about them, countering the media with simple word of mouth. If the cars had been only modestly better than a gas car, or if social media didn't exist to serve as a bullhorn for word of mouth, the traditional media push would have succeeded. I guess that underscores how out of touch all the entrenched vested interests are. They were blindsided. Probably still are.

I had an older gentleman approach me about my Tesla. His immediate concern was what happened when the 12V battery died. They die on gas cars, so it was logical to want to know what happens with an electric car. I pointed out that the 12V is a lithium battery fed by the car's main battery, so it's not going to die, but had to concede that if the battery dies, you can't get into a locked Tesla (you can get out, of course). I'm a little surprised that the media hasn't added that to their litany of facts about electric cars.

After googling a bit, I found that the car will notify you through the app if your 12V is starting to fail. It's not as ironclad and familiar a solution as having a physical key, but I wish I had been able to let that gentleman know.

That was just a "two-fer" (two for the price of one).

“[My] silly claims of ‘proof’…”???
To what are you referring?

 

[THEbuz]

For very large amounts of people this is not simply lack of knowledge. There are vast populations that have a real, intense, foaming-at-the-mouth, spittle flying HATRED of all electric vehicles.


Exactly--that doesn't work. I've seen way too many people just laugh and call you a liar, dismissing your own firsthand experience.

This forecasting of how quickly we will reach 50% sales of EVs is going to take much longer than some people realize. It's a double edged sword. There are already people angry and resisting. To try to make this shift faster, as EV fans want, they are trying to get state legislations to force these moves. People don't like to be forced and controlled like that and have their choices taken away, so now additional large portions of the population who were maybe only skeptical before, are now becoming antagonistic toward EVs and getting more stubborn and digging in their heels to resist it. There are actually movements in a few state legislatures in the opposite direction: banning electric cars. Way to go, y'all!!

If they would have been left on their own, to increase market share on their own merits by performance, fuel saving, and reduced maintenance then they might have even gained acceptance quicker, but the aggressive push is shooting yourself in the foot.

I don’t think anyone with an outright hatred of EV’s is also well versed in all the facts about EV’s, especially TESLA’s. There may be some who are well-versed who have concluded that they (still???) don’t like EV’s. I’ve seen a few YouTube videos titled “Why I’ll Never Buy Another EV” or “Why I’m Selling My EV”, etc.

 

[JB47394]

“[My] silly claims of ‘proof’…”???
To what are you referring?

That was a tongue-in-cheek reference to people not believing facts. Think of the varied popular reactions to things like climate change, vaccines, etc. Some people just rely on trust or faith rather than facts. Interestingly, that approach can be applied rather selectively, with the scientific method holding sway in some cases, but trust or faith dominating others.

 

[THEbuz]

That was a tongue-in-cheek reference to people not believing facts. Think of the varied popular reactions to things like climate change, vaccines, etc. Some people just rely on trust or faith rather than facts. Interestingly, that approach can be applied rather selectively, with the scientific method holding sway in some cases, but trust or faith dominating others.

Gotcha. Sorry if I misunderstood. I wasn’t getting political. Just in reference to EV’s, I was saying that almost all of the common misconceptions about EV’s can be proven to be false with ease, as long as people are willing to listen.

In another post, I referenced the “TESLA Barbarian” YouTube channel and his success letting his Model 3 do the talking to show several of his EV doubting/hating friends that their most deeply held beliefs about EV’s are false. Ironically, nearly all of their misconceptions have come from media misreporting.

 

[JB47394]

For very large amounts of people this is not simply lack of knowledge. There are vast populations that have a real, intense, foaming-at-the-mouth, spittle flying HATRED of all electric vehicles.

That's because electric cars threaten to take away their way of life. I don't only mean mechanics, but people whose lifestyle is dominated by the experience of gas cars. Guys who socialize over cars. Modders, racers (noise makers), tinkerers, etc. Guys who bonded with their dads while working on cars and want to have that with their own kids one day. There's an emotional connection to the gas car.

Now tell me why such people shouldn't hate electric cars. Gas cars have been a part of Americana for generations now.

This is the same thing that has happened every step of the way in our history, starting with those bloody farmers who were destroying the hunter gatherer way of life. When I was a father in 6000BC I wanted to share my life's experience with my boy, but he's been seduced by the farming life.

Of course, there are also the people whose simple identity is wrapped up in their car. The stereotype is the redneck with the lifted truck. That's his ego he's driving around, and you want to replace that with a Tesla? He'll go down shooting before he'll give up his ego.

Lastly, you've got the people with a financial interest in gas cars. Dealers, salesmen, oil and gas companies, all the people who supply them, etc. The entire green industry is a tectonic shift in the world's economy, and there's undoubtedly some real hatred for what it is doing to the established industries.

 

[THEbuz]

That's because electric cars threaten to take away their way of life. I don't only mean mechanics, but people whose lifestyle is dominated by the experience of gas cars. Guys who socialize over cars. Modders, racers (noise makers), tinkerers, etc. Guys who bonded with their dads while working on cars and want to have that with their own kids one day. There's an emotional connection to the gas car.

Now tell me why such people shouldn't hate electric cars. Gas cars have been a part of Americana for generations now.

This is the same thing that has happened every step of the way in our history, starting with those bloody farmers who were destroying the hunter gatherer way of life. When I was a father in 6000BC I wanted to share my life's experience with my boy, but he's been seduced by the farming life.

Of course, there are also the people whose simple identity is wrapped up in their car. The stereotype is the redneck with the lifted truck. That's his ego he's driving around, and you want to replace that with a Tesla? He'll go down shooting before he'll give up his ego.

Lastly, you've got the people with a financial interest in gas cars. Dealers, salesmen, oil and gas companies, all the people who supply them, etc. The entire green industry is a tectonic shift in the world's economy, and there's undoubtedly some real hatred for what it is doing to the established industries.

Fair points.

For me, I don’t like smelling/breathing in odorous emissions at red lights and I effing hate loud cars! Nothing pisses me off more than an unreasonably loud Harley being driven unreasonably loudly while I am (trying to) enjoy/ing a friendly conversation at a nearby cafe outdoor seating.

I don’t have any of that nostalgia over cars. I love tech and believe that EV’s are just a necessary step in the evolution personal transport. Transitioning from fire-propelled transport to electrically-propelled transport just makes sense. It is long past time for the digitization of the automobile. Aside, L5 autonomy really cannot be supported with an ICE powertrain. We can’t have engines stalling on autonomous highways!

Finally, I don’t disagree with any of your points, but I believe that the average person will finally abandon his or her ICE bucket when it becomes more expensive to purchase, own, and operate an ICE bucket vs. an EV. That day is not far into the future.

 

[K.I.T.T.23]

For very large amounts of people this is not simply lack of knowledge. There are vast populations that have a real, intense, foaming-at-the-mouth, spittle flying HATRED of all electric vehicles.


Exactly--that doesn't work. I've seen way too many people just laugh and call you a liar, dismissing your own firsthand experience.

This forecasting of how quickly we will reach 50% sales of EVs is going to take much longer than some people realize. It's a double edged sword. There are already people angry and resisting. To try to make this shift faster, as EV fans want, they are trying to get state legislations to force these moves. People don't like to be forced and controlled like that and have their choices taken away, so now additional large portions of the population who were maybe only skeptical before, are now becoming antagonistic toward EVs and getting more stubborn and digging in their heels to resist it. There are actually movements in a few state legislatures in the opposite direction: banning electric cars. Way to go, y'all!!

If they would have been left on their own, to increase market share on their own merits by performance, fuel saving, and reduced maintenance then they might have even gained acceptance quicker, but the aggressive push is shooting yourself in the foot.

I think you are likely incorrect about the timeframe for EV adoption. Looking at history, while not quite the same it is close:

• The automobile accounted for over 50% of road traffic by 1910.
• Freight haulage was the last bastion of horse-drawn transportation; the motorized truck finally supplanted the horse cart in the 1920's
• It took the invention of the Model T in 1908 to replace horses nearly 100% by 1930, so 22 years

So, we can use this as a gauge, but there are some major differences... though even those are similar. The automobile had been around for a long time really, it was just expensive... kind-a like early EVs. People were worried that horse manure was going to cause pollution they had no idea about gas, so similar there too, just not quite correct, and we are more concerned about the environment than we were in the early 1900's. There were 21.5 million horses in 1900 in the US, there are over 280 million vehicles today in the US. People were irrationally afraid of automobiles, similar to the fear/hatred of the EV today. Information moves a lot faster today. Big oil wants to kill the EV, and will spend billions to do so, I don't think horses had such a supporter other than old folks whom would reference that horses were the backbone of transportation for thousands of years.

As I look at the data, the differences and try to pinpoint the "Model T" event for EVs, I would say it may be the Model 3. If so, assuming that most positives that would decrease the timeline for adoption are countered by some of the negative differences I think we are likely looking at a similar timeline of 22 years.. which would leave us at just before 2040. If I was a betting man (I am not) I would assume the timeline to be shorter and not longer, so I would say we should expect full adoption by the year 2040, potentially as early as 2035 (regardless of silly laws/bans).

Paraphrasing Neil deGrasse Tyson: attempting to predict the future is a fools errand, but I will do it anyway.

 

[THEbuz]

I think you are likely incorrect about the timeframe for EV adoption. Looking at history, while not quite the same it is close:

• The automobile accounted for over 50% of road traffic by 1910.
• Freight haulage was the last bastion of horse-drawn transportation; the motorized truck finally supplanted the horse cart in the 1920's
• It took the invention of the Model T in 1908 to replace horses nearly 100% by 1930, so 22 years

So, we can use this as a gauge, but there are some major differences... though even those are similar. The automobile had been around for a long time really, it was just expensive... kind-a like early EVs. People were worried that horse manure was going to cause pollution they had no idea about gas, so similar there too, just not quite correct, and we are more concerned about the environment than we were in the early 1900's. There were 21.5 million horses in 1900 in the US, there are over 280 million vehicles today in the US. People were irrationally afraid of automobiles, similar to the fear/hatred of the EV today. Information moves a lot faster today. Big oil wants to kill the EV, and will spend billions to do so, I don't think horses had such a supporter other than old folks whom would reference that horses were the backbone of transportation for thousands of years.

As I look at the data, the differences and try to pinpoint the "Model T" event for EVs, I would say it may be the Model 3. If so, assuming that most positives that would decrease the timeline for adoption are countered by some of the negative differences I think we are likely looking at a similar timeline of 22 years.. which would leave us at just before 2040. If I was a betting man (I am not) I would assume the timeline to be shorter and not longer, so I would say we should expect full adoption by the year 2040, potentially as early as 2035 (regardless of silly laws/bans).

Paraphrasing Neil deGrasse Tyson: attempting to predict the future is a fools errand, but I will do it anyway.

One thing I’ll add that you are not taking into account is that there continues to be increasingly more demand for EV’s than can be met with supply. This is due almost entirely to slow production of battery cells and slower technological advancements in the battery architecture space, which battery cells are required to power EV’s. Namely, lithium continues to trail drastically far behind its demand curve, thanks exclusively to EV market adoption.

I would argue that no such production limiter existed in the early 1900’s; thus, it was then merely a matter of market adoption and savvy market manipulation (i.e. electric vs. gasoline). Were it not for the limitations inherent in battery cell production, legacy automakers would have all but caught up to TESLA by now and certainly would have by 2030, if not by now. But, legacy automakers will not have caught up to TESLA by 2030; in fact, by 2030, they will have been fully eclipsed by TESLA’s EV production, having already been eclipsed, financially, by TESLA’s ungodly high stock price and related high market capitalization in recent years.

 

[brooklyn]

Had an interesting experience yesterday during the morning commute. Guy in a large diesel truck in the lane beside me kept dropping back to where his tailpipes were level with my hood and then flooring it. His attempts didn't work at first, but eventually he was able to spew a big cloud of black smoke, which I assume was the goal all along. The wife and I are new to the EV world. We started with her in 2019 with a '19 eTron and I picked up a MSP to replace my 10+ year old Audi S6 in January. We're sold on the convenience and overall performance benefits of EVs, and assuming we can get to a happier point of range (with Audi) or build quality (with Tesla), we're here to stay. What I struggle to understand is the politicization of EVs, and the outright disdain by some ICE purists towards EVs. I tell my friends all the time - if I could drop the battery performance/range of my MSP into say an Audi RS6 or RS7, I'd have the perfect car.

 

[JB47394]

What I struggle to understand is the politicization of EVs, and the outright disdain by some ICE purists towards EVs.

For politicization, follow the money. For disdain, well that's just preference. Think of the disdain some car purists have for the automatic transmission or even just onboard computers. But if they're actually spreading misinformation about what electric vehicles are, then that's fear. For example, if they review gas cars and rate them on horsepower, valve timing, fuel injection and that sort of stuff, then all their experience with gas cars is out the window. Some kid with an iPhone is going to replace him.

 

[Rocky_H]

Finally, I don’t disagree with any of your points, but I believe that the average person will finally abandon his or her ICE bucket when it becomes more expensive to purchase, own, and operate an ICE bucket vs. an EV. That day is not far into the future.

Simply "more expensive" is not a crossover point. It's not a factor of equal to +1. Inertia and being comfortable doing the exact same thing you have always done before because you are used to it is a powerful factor of human behavior. If people can buy the same kind of car, and they can still afford the gas and maintenance for it just like they used to, that is comfortable. They don't feel any need to do anything different. Because change and the unknown feels risky and scary. "I already know that this works the way I expect it to." does really matter.

If so, assuming that most positives that would decrease the timeline for adoption are countered by some of the negative differences I think we are likely looking at a similar timeline of 22 years.. which would leave us at just before 2040. If I was a betting man (I am not) I would assume the timeline to be shorter and not longer, so I would say we should expect full adoption by the year 2040, potentially as early as 2035 (regardless of silly laws/bans).

I'm sticking with my prediction of much longer, because I hadn't even begun to get into discussing the very real deficiencies, hinderances, and inconveniences of electric vehicles.

First off, "vehicles" is not all one market. Passenger cars have good substitutes in electric versions, but the so-called functionality of electric pickup trucks is still pathetic and doesn't have a good solution coming on the horizon. It's inescapable fact that battery energy density doesn't come close to liquid fuel and isn't accelerating to meet that very fast. So while efficiency gets crippled with either type of fuel, you can just store an enormous amount of gasoline energy onboard so that towing distances remain tolerable with gas or diesel, while battery doesn't cut it. And have you lived in areas of the country where trucks are the vast majority? Yeah, good luck there trying to convince people to switch their vehicles when it actually is a less effective product.

Then there are infrastructure problems from multiple angles. If you live in a house with a garage, that's a good setup for EV. But it becomes a real inconvenience for people living in other situations where that isn't so. Apartments or houses where all parking is just finding a random curbside spot on the street do not make for a good EV ownership experience. Having to use public fast charging stations is going to be slow, expensive, and inconvenient for those people and so is going to also contribute to resisting the shift.

And public infrastructure has some inherent problems of price and reliability. Since it is run by companies who are not using it as a loss leader to sell cars, they have to try to be profitable on their own selling electricity as a service. That's a boondoggle. That is going to have that problem of expensive prices to raise revenue and lack of upkeep and maintenance trying to cut costs. And that still may not be able to break even. And if the attempts to overcome that is with floating them with government projects and subsidies, that is yet another valid angry talking point we hear against EVs.

So there's a lot of additional friction that people don't seem to be considering or taking seriously that will make this a much slower and more painful process than most of the citizens on this forum want to believe.

 

[THEbuz]

Had an interesting experience yesterday during the morning commute. Guy in a large diesel truck in the lane beside me kept dropping back to where his tailpipes were level with my hood and then flooring it. His attempts didn't work at first, but eventually he was able to spew a big cloud of black smoke, which I assume was the goal all along. The wife and I are new to the EV world. We started with her in 2019 with a '19 eTron and I picked up a MSP to replace my 10+ year old Audi S6 in January. We're sold on the convenience and overall performance benefits of EVs, and assuming we can get to a happier point of range (with Audi) or build quality (with Tesla), we're here to stay. What I struggle to understand is the politicization of EVs, and the outright disdain by some ICE purists towards EVs. I tell my friends all the time - if I could drop the battery performance/range of my MSP into say an Audi RS6 or RS7, I'd have the perfect car.

Simply "more expensive" is not a crossover point. It's not a factor of equal to +1. Inertia and being comfortable doing the exact same thing you have always done before because you are used to it is a powerful factor of human behavior. If people can buy the same kind of car, and they can still afford the gas and maintenance for it just like they used to, that is comfortable. They don't feel any need to do anything different. Because change and the unknown feels risky and scary. "I already know that this works the way I expect it to." does really matter.


I'm sticking with my prediction of much longer, because I hadn't even begun to get into discussing the very real deficiencies, hinderances, and inconveniences of electric vehicles.

First off, "vehicles" is not all one market. Passenger cars have good substitutes in electric versions, but the so-called functionality of electric pickup trucks is still pathetic and doesn't have a good solution coming on the horizon. It's inescapable fact that battery energy density doesn't come close to liquid fuel and isn't accelerating to meet that very fast. So while efficiency gets crippled with either type of fuel, you can just store an enormous amount of gasoline energy onboard so that towing distances remain tolerable with gas or diesel, while battery doesn't cut it. And have you lived in areas of the country where trucks are the vast majority? Yeah, good luck there trying to convince people to switch their vehicles when it actually is a less effective product.

Then there are infrastructure problems from multiple angles. If you live in a house with a garage, that's a good setup for EV. But it becomes a real inconvenience for people living in other situations where that isn't so. Apartments or houses where all parking is just finding a random curbside spot on the street do not make for a good EV ownership experience. Having to use public fast charging stations is going to be slow, expensive, and inconvenient for those people and so is going to also contribute to resisting the shift.

And public infrastructure has some inherent problems of price and reliability. Since it is run by companies who are not using it as a loss leader to sell cars, they have to try to be profitable on their own selling electricity as a service. That's a boondoggle. That is going to have that problem of expensive prices to raise revenue and lack of upkeep and maintenance trying to cut costs. And that still may not be able to break even. And if the attempts to overcome that is with floating them with government projects and subsidies, that is yet another valid angry talking point we hear against EVs.

So there's a lot of additional friction that people don't seem to be considering or taking seriously that will make this a much slower and more painful process than most of the citizens on this forum want to believe.

I am not saying that the instant that ICE ownership becomes $1 more expensive than EV’s, people will abandon ICE en masse, but rather it will be gradual. In the same way that many people now would never spend $20k - $50k more on an EV, so—too—many of these same people will see the savings and the overall value proposition involved with owning an EV. I am referring to a time in the not-too-distant future when rapid charging stations will be much more commonplace than gas stations and rapid charging will take 5min or less (not like today). A time when auto insurance for ICE cars will be much higher than auto insurance for EV’s and fuel costs and overall auto maintenance will be so exorbitantly high that this group of people will see the low cost of EV’s and the simplicity of EV’e with so few moving parts as the obvious choice. Again, this will be a gradual shift not very far into the future, probably before 2035.

 

[Rocky_H]

In the same way that many people now would never spend $20k - $50k more on an EV, so—too—many of these same people will see the savings and the overall value proposition involved with owning an EV.

People are so blind to long term TCO calculations that you are referring to. Most people can't get their heads around that already just in the gas car world! If that were true, why isn't everyone driving Priuses, which are already significantly cheaper on TCO than most other cars? Sticker price seems to be all most people are capable of seeing and even then are willing to pay more for what they want.

I am referring to a time in the not-too-distant future when rapid charging stations will be much more commonplace than gas stations and rapid charging will take 5min or less (not like today).

This is simply laughable to think this is the not-too-distant future.

A time when auto insurance for ICE cars will be much higher than auto insurance for EV’s

Why would it be?

and fuel costs and overall auto maintenance will be so exorbitantly high

Why would it be? It will be unchanged. That was my point before. People know what to expect. They've been paying for those repairs and gas fill ups, and they cost the same as they did before, despite that other world over there for other people with their different cars.

that this group of people will see the low cost of EV’s and the simplicity of EV’e with so few moving parts as the obvious choice.

How will they see that? You're forgetting about tribalism. People tend to spend their time and relationships with other people who are like them and are from similar backgrounds and share the same beliefs. The people who don't like electric cars will generally only have friends with the same biases who also don't like electric cars, so they won't know anyone who has one who could tell them or show them anything different about it. That's annoying that people are that way, but it's sociology.

I'm not trying to be really negative about this, but it's pretty logical reality.

 

[THEbuz]

People are so blind to long term TCO calculations that you are referring to. Most people can't get their heads around that already just in the gas car world! If that were true, why isn't everyone driving Priuses, which are already significantly cheaper on TCO than most other cars? Sticker price seems to be all most people are capable of seeing.


This is simply laughable to think this is the not-too-distant future.


Why would it be?


Why would it be? It will be unchanged. That was my point before. People know what to expect. They've been paying for those repairs and gas fill ups, and they cost the same as they did before, despite that other world over there for other people with their different cars.


How will they see that? You're forgetting about tribalism. People tend to spend their time and relationships with other people who are like them and are from similar backgrounds and share the same beliefs. The people who don't like electric cars will generally only have friends with the same biases who also don't like electric cars, so they won't know anyone who has one who could tell them or show them anything different about it. That's annoying that people are that way, but it's sociology.

I'm not trying to be really negative about this, but it's pretty logical reality.

It’s coming. Wait and see…

 

[K.I.T.T.23]

Simply "more expensive" is not a crossover point. It's not a factor of equal to +1. Inertia and being comfortable doing the exact same thing you have always done before because you are used to it is a powerful factor of human behavior. If people can buy the same kind of car, and they can still afford the gas and maintenance for it just like they used to, that is comfortable. They don't feel any need to do anything different. Because change and the unknown feels risky and scary. "I already know that this works the way I expect it to." does really matter.


I'm sticking with my prediction of much longer, because I hadn't even begun to get into discussing the very real deficiencies, hinderances, and inconveniences of electric vehicles.

First off, "vehicles" is not all one market. Passenger cars have good substitutes in electric versions, but the so-called functionality of electric pickup trucks is still pathetic and doesn't have a good solution coming on the horizon. It's inescapable fact that battery energy density doesn't come close to liquid fuel and isn't accelerating to meet that very fast. So while efficiency gets crippled with either type of fuel, you can just store an enormous amount of gasoline energy onboard so that towing distances remain tolerable with gas or diesel, while battery doesn't cut it. And have you lived in areas of the country where trucks are the vast majority? Yeah, good luck there trying to convince people to switch their vehicles when it actually is a less effective product.

Then there are infrastructure problems from multiple angles. If you live in a house with a garage, that's a good setup for EV. But it becomes a real inconvenience for people living in other situations where that isn't so. Apartments or houses where all parking is just finding a random curbside spot on the street do not make for a good EV ownership experience. Having to use public fast charging stations is going to be slow, expensive, and inconvenient for those people and so is going to also contribute to resisting the shift.

And public infrastructure has some inherent problems of price and reliability. Since it is run by companies who are not using it as a loss leader to sell cars, they have to try to be profitable on their own selling electricity as a service. That's a boondoggle. That is going to have that problem of expensive prices to raise revenue and lack of upkeep and maintenance trying to cut costs. And that still may not be able to break even. And if the attempts to overcome that is with floating them with government projects and subsidies, that is yet another valid angry talking point we hear against EVs.

So there's a lot of additional friction that people don't seem to be considering or taking seriously that will make this a much slower and more painful process than most of the citizens on this forum want to believe.

Kind-a sounds like the words from a horse feed salesman/distributor in 1910
If you are open to rebuttal and debate, I am willing to engage, but after this point we will need some solid sources.

Vehicle market:
Yes, you are correct. there are multiple markets. In rural America people still use horses at times, they are just efficient and effective (Wyoming Cattle Herders for example). So, likewise, I think we will still see gas/diesel systems the same way. This will not dominate the American landsacpe though, and will affect a very small % of the population. I would also concede that passenger and cargo aircraft will likely not go electric by 2040. That said, sUAS' are almost exclusively electric now, and some full UAS are also electric; aside from some specialized military and unique jet and prop versions. Personal vehicles, IF we still own them the same way, will likely be 90% or higher electric. Heavy transport will be electric, the Tesla Semi is the first of many, the science is there and proven, and the $$ value will push that development quickly. Farm equipment may or may not adapt quickly... I am not familiar with how their industry develops. I am not familiar with train/locomotive transportation, so I can't speak on that matter. The issue you and I have is in 10+ years there will be changes we can't anticipate, so 2040 is a hard mark to hit. For example, this could be written by an AI and you would not be the wiser today... 5 years ago that would be unheard of.

Infrastructure:
It is already being built, privately at a rate that was unprecedented. Needs will dictate development. This is historically the way these things work, there are many examples. The automotive industry for example went from gas being hard to find, to co-located with feed stops, to exclusive gas stations in less than 20 years. We are much faster now. How will they be implemented in apartments? Well, if I was developing an apartment complex right now I would have 110v avilable in all parking spots and premium rent would get you a 220v j-1772 plug. That is today, not in 20 years. many office buildings already have charging vehicle parking spots... today. imagine what we will have in 5 - 10 years.

Regarding your comments on profitability, innovation finds a way. It always does, again, I will refer to the days of horse feed and gas: --how much lead? What octane? Fuel is complex!!! if only automobiles ran on oats... only need one kind to keep a horse going. There is no way to make money on petro.-- That statement sounds crazy today doesn't it.

Resistance to Change:
You are correct... today. Technology adoption has 5 phases: Innovators, early adopters, Early majority, Late majority, and laggards. We are still in the early adoption/Early majority phases. Once EV technology becomes late majority it will quickly shrink the laggard population. EV haters will find themselves lumped in with anti-vaxers, flat earthers, and climate change deniers.

 

[EVer Hopeful]

That's because electric cars threaten to take away their way of life. I don't only mean mechanics, but people whose lifestyle is dominated by the experience of gas cars. Guys who socialize over cars. Modders, racers (noise makers), tinkerers, etc. Guys who bonded with their dads while working on cars and want to have that with their own kids one day. There's an emotional connection to the gas car.

What can you fix or mod on an ICE any more? Pretty much service the brakes and an change the oil and that's about it

 

[THEbuz]

Kind-a sounds like the words from a horse feed salesman/distributor in 1910
If you are open to rebuttal and debate, I am willing to engage, but after this point we will need some solid sources.

Vehicle market:
Yes, you are correct. there are multiple markets. In rural America people still use horses at times, they are just efficient and effective (Wyoming Cattle Herders for example). So, likewise, I think we will still see gas/diesel systems the same way. This will not dominate the American landsacpe though, and will affect a very small % of the population. I would also concede that passenger and cargo aircraft will likely not go electric by 2040. That said, sUAS' are almost exclusively electric now, and some full UAS are also electric; aside from some specialized military and unique jet and prop versions. Personal vehicles, IF we still own them the same way, will likely be 90% or higher electric. Heavy transport will be electric, the Tesla Semi is the first of many, the science is there and proven, and the $$ value will push that development quickly. Farm equipment may or may not adapt quickly... I am not familiar with how their industry develops. I am not familiar with train/locomotive transportation, so I can't speak on that matter. The issue you and I have is in 10+ years there will be changes we can't anticipate, so 2040 is a hard mark to hit. For example, this could be written by an AI and you would not be the wiser today... 5 years ago that would be unheard of.

Infrastructure:
It is already being built, privately at a rate that was unprecedented. Needs will dictate development. This is historically the way these things work, there are many examples. The automotive industry for example went from gas being hard to find, to co-located with feed stops, to exclusive gas stations in less than 20 years. We are much faster now. How will they be implemented in apartments? Well, if I was developing an apartment complex right now I would have 110v avilable in all parking spots and premium rent would get you a 220v j-1772 plug. That is today, not in 20 years. many office buildings already have charging vehicle parking spots... today. imagine what we will have in 5 - 10 years.

Regarding your comments on profitability, innovation finds a way. It always does, again, I will refer to the days of horse feed and gas: --how much lead? What octane? Fuel is complex!!! if only automobiles ran on oats... only need one kind to keep a horse going. There is no way to make money on petro.-- That statement sounds crazy today doesn't it.

Resistance to Change:
You are correct... today. Technology adoption has 5 phases: Innovators, early adopters, Early majority, Late majority, and laggards. We are still in the early adoption/Early majority phases. Once EV technology becomes late majority it will quickly shrink the laggard population. EV haters will find themselves lumped in with anti-vaxers, flat earthers, and climate change deniers.

At the end of the day, we are simply talking about your opinion versus my opinion. I don’t mind hearing your opinion, but I refuse to bow down to the “superiority” of your opinion. You seem more interested in winning an argument/debate and less interested in having a discussion with shared ideas. I don’t need to be right. In the end, history will be the determiner to what degree you were right and to what degree I was right (on this topic, as to market adoption of EV’s). Candidly, while I am perfectly capable of writing up a thesis with citations, point-by-point, I have neither the patience or the time, nor do I care to. This forum is a pet hobby for me. I own a TESLA, and I have test driven the TESLA models I don’t presently own. I do a TON of research on this subject, because—ultimately—I am putting my money where my mouth is with several hundred thousand dollars invested in $TSLA. I believe in Elon, and I believe in TESLA and their products.

Cheers, mate.

 

[ThePirate]

I’ve made similar comments. I do “miss the romance… the roar, vibration…” And charging on road trips is a PITA depending on where you’re going. Like the time I went camping in the mountains with a canoe on my model 3’s roof and had to cut speed to 40 mph on the highway in order to make it back to the Supercharger I started at. Or the extra ~hour I spend charging doing a 400+ mile round trip site visit. That time plus the electricity costs of California Superchargers has me eyeing a 2023 Prius Prime as an alternative to my 80k mile model 3. So while yes there’s a lot of ignorance I would not contribute to that by pretending some of these knocks are meritless. Horses for courses…

My dominant (like 80% of miles) use case for transport is for road trips to the mountains of CA. About 20% of that includes really remote and partially dirt road type places. So, I went on abetterreouteplanner and of course the tesla planner site, and I found that all the trips I could think of worked out fine, though they included sometimes 20 min charges at the last supercharger. But only for expensive, long-range EVs. So I sprang for the MYLR.

On my last trip, I went from SF bay area to Mono Lake in Feb., and that was extra fun because of some notoriously icy non-serviced roads. The MYLR did fine, with its very very non-winter tires. (Use the trick of "off-road assist", that really helps.) Note: I got in the car after a very cold night (I think 0 F), no scheduling or anything, and noticed absolutely no hesitation in moving, no reduced power, etc. (We got lucky, no ice storms or wet snow, so I can't really speak to the handles freezing or anything like that.)

As I have found on all my real-life road trips, as well as in my simulations, you gotta charge 10-20 min every 2-3 hours of driving, and you have to make sure you're charged up at the last supercharger. However, I have never taken the time for a restaurant meal while charging. In fact, I would point out that I barely have time to stretch, mess with something (jackets, glasses, etc.), and pee in the charge time. The longest charge I ever had, I ate sandwiches I brought, and didn't wait around more than 2 minutes. This works out nearly ideally for me.

I can certainly imgaine that you would lose a LOT of range with a canoe on top; I think I read that a cargo carrier on top can take 25% off range (dont quote me on that-can't find it in my notes). BUT I'm surprised you say that charging on road trips is a PITA, as I find the break time nearly ideal. So, I would like to ask for everyone here:

1) Where did you go? I'd like to try and map these myself. (I'm *really* curious here. I keep finding Superchargers in "gateway" towns near sierra access highways, so all the trips I mapped worked out fine.)

2) For other paddle-heads: how much efficiency do you figure you lost?

3) Do you know about charger surfing, and optimizing for more/ shorter charge times? This might make it all less of a PITA for you.

DON'T FORGET: ICE CARS LOSE EFFICIENCY IN THE MOUNTAINS - A *LOT* MORE EFFICIENCY LOSS

Now as much of this thread is about "the romance of ICE", I need to also share this little practical, not-so-romantic issue with some of you folks. Out here in the west, we got this thing called, "altitude", in our mountains. Mountain passes 8000-9000 feet are right in the way of getting to where you want to go in the mountains. Now, this significantly hurts your range in you EV, cause you have to spend the energy to get over them. HOWEVER, ICE cars need oxygen. Lots of it. If you take them where there is little oxygen, like a high mountain pass, you not only have to spend the energy to get them up there, but they have to do it at reduced efficency - VERY SUBSTANTIALLY reduced efficiency. Anyone who has driven around the high sierras, for example up tioga pass road from the east side, up to thrailheads near Mammoth, up towards Whitney Portal, knows what I'm talking about. You can practially see your gas needle drop as you look at it. BUT EVS ARE 100% IMMUNE TO THIS. No altitude effects because no carburator or injector. Sooo..... my friend in his diesel van who was driving around to trailheads during our weekend had to slip away to drive to the nearest town (like 12 miles) to fill up on diesel. I was a bit surprised, because I'm sure he "topped up" just as I did, before passing the last big town. Well, that was an extra 20+ gallons of diesel. That is no friggin' joke, because away from towns diesel is $6+/gallon - $120+. That's a few canoe paddles right there. And yer typical big-ass SUV used for outdoor recreation is no sipper. So, before you get too nostalgic for a 4WD pickup, van, or similar recreation vehicle to put your canoe in or on, fairly compare how it would do, and how much that would be in overall fuel costs. All I can say is YIKES.

Thanks in advance for letting us hear more details about your experiences. I am really and truly interested as a backcountry person.

-TPC

 

[buckets0fun]

I don’t think anyone with an outright hatred of EV’s is also well versed in all the facts about EV’s, especially TESLA’s. There may be some who are well-versed who have concluded that they (still???) don’t like EV’s.

exchange EV for diesel and TESLA for diesel trucks.

The ignorance goes both ways. One side’s YouTube tells them silly things, the other side’s YouTube tells silly things.

Evidence is every ‘zomg they rolled coal on meeeeee1111!eleventy’ thread/mention of diesel acceleration without any understanding how the diesel combustion cycle works.