Canuck
Well-Known Member
Best case late 2018? No way. There's lots of information to suggest autopilot 2.0 is set for 2016.
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Best case late 2018? No way. There's lots of information to suggest autopilot 2.0 is set for 2016.
Tesla really doesn't do "retrofits" and they never have, in any serious way. At least not with their mass-produced cars like the S.
I don't believe that Tesla has no demand issues, or we wouldn't be seeing things like the referral program. I actually think they do have some demand issues, and they need to keep giving current owners a reason to buy a new car. Retrofits don't help that case.
The only way you're likely to see a significant retrofit program is if Tesla goes Chapter 11, and stops building new cars. Then, a retrofit program might make sense.
I don't believe that Tesla has no demand issues, or we wouldn't be seeing things like the referral program. I actually think they do have some demand issues, and they need to keep giving current owners a reason to buy a new car. Retrofits don't help that case.
The only way you're likely to see a significant retrofit program is if Tesla goes Chapter 11, and stops building new cars. Then, a retrofit program might make sense.
Another user in this thread claimed to have gotten quotes for retrofitted power side mirrors and parking assist - two pretty serious changes.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
Yes, but there's no way the service centers could keep up with doing autopilot retrofits. That, in itself, will likely rule it out even if it is doable. That, and they want people to buy new cars, which is what they are forcing me to do just to get autopilot. I'm just waiting for 2.0 before upgrading.
The service center capacity point might be valid today, but likely going to change. EM on the last earnings call:
Jon McNeill has joined as Head of Global Sales and Service. And Jon is the former CEO of Enservio. He's been named sort of Most Admired CEO in the small and midsize company category. In fact, I believe this is the first time in maybe a decade or more that Jon actually has not been head of the company that he's working at. So – and before Enservio, he co-founded Sterling Collision, where he was able to reduce industry repair times by 90%, so the average repair time went from 18 days to less than 2 days while growing the business at 40% year. So, I think Jon's an awesome addition to the team as well. And he's actually – he's been doing great. He's been working now part-time at Tesla for a few months and just started full-time and has already done a lot of good.
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There are only 60k current owners with Autopilot hardware and 200k including non-AP. 99% of their car sales over the next 2-3 years will be to customers who don't currently own a Model S. So you're overstating the importance of the current installed base on future sales. They should be most focused on promoting high brand equity starting with current owners, and they have a good track record here with OTA updates
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Just so we have the numbers close to reality. We are probably at around 105k Model S's sold worldwide to date. 50k of those have AP. I haven't crunched the numbers exactly but there aren't 60k AP and there are definitely not 200k total.
I think we have 2 years of SW improvements with the current sensors. So my 3 year lease started in May 15 is going to work out pretty well.
I think we have 2 years of SW improvements with the current sensors. So my 3 year lease started in May 15 is going to work out pretty well.
It's just as likely as it is that you can upgrade your 2014 MB/AUDI/FORD/whatever to the telematics are in the new 2016 model. Tesla could devote time and resources to this sort of thing while there was a small number of vehicles out there. But as the number and number of variations of vehicles out there increase the complexity of offering upgrades goes up exponentially.
It's likely not that they are unwilling. It just becomes a practical impossibility. It's part of Tesla growing up as a company. The days of non trivial upgrades are over.
gg_got_a_tesla
Model S: VIN 65513, Model 3: VIN 1913
This is an interesting thought. Wonder what percentage of sales overall have been to existing customers who traded up from an older S to a newer one. Much like when the Dual Motor + AP 1.0 launch happened, an AP 2.0 spec S may trigger another wave of trade-ups by existing owners.
SebastianR
Active Member
I don't think this is the way it works. Granted, there are some people who always need to have the latest & greatest but I don't think they constitute a significant amount of Tesla drivers.
If they really would need to do as you insinuate, we would see masses of CPO cars not just the little trickle we can observe and most importantly, resale value of "old and stale Model S" would be very low. This is, however, not at all the case. If you compare Tesla to Mercedes, Tesla holds its value much better (Merc. S-Class is at about 52% after 36 months / Tesla is at about 68% after 36 months). Bottom line for me is, that referrals were strategically used to even out demand fluctuations in times when the Model X was introduced. In other words, referrals were about demand timing, not about demand generation.
The wiring harness was already there for both those. Any update that requires disassembling the car for a new wiring harness simply won't happen. Do you know for certain the wiring is already there for 8 cameras? If it isn't and they offer this expect a $25,000+ upgrade is my guess.
I had my side mirrors retrofitted to power folding mirrors in my 2012 P85. Wasn't cheap though and was a relatively simple procedure.
Adding more cameras, sensors, and wiring is another ballgame. They quoted me something like $6000 for parking sensors and $3000 for the folding mirrors. I'd expect autopilot hardware to require new mirrors, bumpers, new cameras, sonar sensors, wiring harnesses and way more disassembly of the interior.
Based on the information at hand (below) I am reading the tea leaves the same way sillydriver is.
https://youtu.be/0UzVBTgHqSQ?t=839 - Amnon Shashua of Mobil Eye on March 23, 2015
“By 2016 there’s going to be new launches by GM and Tesla as well”
Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla as soon as this year | Electrek (9/9/2015)
The CEO described the “more sophisticated system” saying that one OEM is already implementing it in a vehicle:
“Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.” Aviram didn’t disclose which automaker is testing the system, but he hinted it could find its way into a commercial product as soon as this year and we know that Tesla has been testing a similar hardware suite.
Mobile Eye’s Q3 Conference Call (11/3/2015).
The CEO of MobilEye pretty much confirmed that Tesla, in 2016, will have multiple EyeQ3 chips and cameras in Tesla’s automobiles
“As we said, these capabilities are already implemented and will be implemented in the future semi-autonomous launches, including in 2016 by two of our OEM customers. The Tesla auto pilot feature is currently using a mono camera sensor for performing the most important understanding of the scene the visual interpretation. Our multiple camera sensor configuration launches are planned to begin as early as next year”
"So, currently, we are very happy with the introduction of Tesla with what we call Lane Keeping Assist, which is the best in class Lane Keeping Assist today. And we hear a lot of great feedbacks on this system. “
“What we presented is Lane Keeping Assist system rather than auto pilot system. Auto pilot system is going to be presented next year, where is going to be 360 degrees coverage around the vehicle and is going to be multiple cameras with additional sensors. What we have today is just a mono camera looking forward. So it’s a very limited input that we have on the road. But importance of this launch is, Tesla is willing to push the envelope faster and more aggressively than any other OEM, and definitely this is a very important in step forward to introduce the beginning of semi-autonomous application that will start being launched next year."
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No one is asking the simple question - WHY would you want to do this?
Let's say that the v2 "8-camera" system is out in 2018, which I believe is a reasonable date. Our current AP cars will be 3-4 years old by then. A lot of other changes will already have happened so you aren't talking about mounting a couple more cameras. I, for one, will probably want a new car in 3-4 years. (I take delivery in a couple weeks!) I've never kept a car for more than 3-4 years anyway so there is zero chance I'll want to spend $10-20k up-fitting a 3-4 year old car when v2 AP comes out.
Let's say that the v2 "8-camera" system is out in 2018, which I believe is a reasonable date. Our current AP cars will be 3-4 years old by then. A lot of other changes will already have happened so you aren't talking about mounting a couple more cameras. I, for one, will probably want a new car in 3-4 years. (I take delivery in a couple weeks!) I've never kept a car for more than 3-4 years anyway so there is zero chance I'll want to spend $10-20k up-fitting a 3-4 year old car when v2 AP comes out.
Such a cynical (and satirical) thread...
As a second car, I have an Audi R8 Spyder. I like the look of the facelift headlight package - they look "newer" and offer LED lighting. It takes about 10 minutes to swap out both headlights (I have done this) and another 30min for programming to teach the car the new sequence for powering the lighting...no other hardware modifications. That alone is about $9,500.00. If I want to do other improvements such as a new exhaust, well thats around $10,000...I could go on and on.
Buy a $100,000.00 car, or you can build the same $100,000.00 car for $750,000 by building it out of the parts catalog. My point is, there isn't a car or a car manufacturer on the planet that makes it cost effective to upgrade your car....thats why the aftermarket business is so strong and alive. The fact that Tesla offers free SW upgrades over the wire already turns the entire car business on its ear. We are lucky to have what we have...
As a second car, I have an Audi R8 Spyder. I like the look of the facelift headlight package - they look "newer" and offer LED lighting. It takes about 10 minutes to swap out both headlights (I have done this) and another 30min for programming to teach the car the new sequence for powering the lighting...no other hardware modifications. That alone is about $9,500.00. If I want to do other improvements such as a new exhaust, well thats around $10,000...I could go on and on.
Buy a $100,000.00 car, or you can build the same $100,000.00 car for $750,000 by building it out of the parts catalog. My point is, there isn't a car or a car manufacturer on the planet that makes it cost effective to upgrade your car....thats why the aftermarket business is so strong and alive. The fact that Tesla offers free SW upgrades over the wire already turns the entire car business on its ear. We are lucky to have what we have...
Are you suggesting that Tesla can't do better regarding such things, or that they simply won't?
Canuck
Well-Known Member
Funny -- Elon Musk is being quoted in Horsetalk:
“So I actually think at the point at which cars being made that have full autonomy – that any cars that are being made that don’t have full autonomy will have negative value. It will be like owning a horse or not – you’re really owning it for sentimental reasons.”
from http://horsetalk.co.nz/2015/11/05/cars-driving-horses-tesla-boss/#axzz3r2TdX1d
“So I actually think at the point at which cars being made that have full autonomy – that any cars that are being made that don’t have full autonomy will have negative value. It will be like owning a horse or not – you’re really owning it for sentimental reasons.”
from http://horsetalk.co.nz/2015/11/05/cars-driving-horses-tesla-boss/#axzz3r2TdX1d
chickensevil
Active Member
Counterpoint on the tea leaves for Tesla releasing it next year is that they very likely will need to do a lot of internal testing of it first. Note that it generally takes time to take a product (the 8 cameras) and incorporate it into your vehicle, and then program the car's responses to this environment. So, even if they are releasing it to Tesla next year, it will be some time before they actually get incorporated and then the supply ramps up to be added into production cars. They didn't start putting it in the Tesla until, what? 1 year after it first became an available thing?
Second, your clipping out of the commentary from the CEO makes it seem like it could be Tesla, but if you go and read the whole transcript I think you are misreading the comments. Let me give that whole section for all to read:
So you have the CEO describing a product (deep learning and reading of free space) that they confirm is what is in the Tesla and then state that additionally these capabilities will be available to two OEMs in 2016. This basically means that the 2016 release is *NOT* Tesla, because Tesla already had implemented this capability. Why would Tesla need to re-release this capability if it already exists, as stated by the CEO? This doesn't flow with how the speech was prepared, and would be reading something that wasn't even hinted at.
The next paragraph then goes back to Tesla, he states that they are using a single camera, but then states that the multi-camera launches could begin as early as next year. Now, you could either read that this "early as next year" is alluding to the aforementioned two OEMs (wording doesn't fit), or most likely this is alluding to an as of yet, un-solidified date by some *other manufacturer*(s). This could be Tesla... maybe not... but it isn't confirmed to be 2016, it is a lot less certain. There are known OEMs with the three camera setup in the front upcoming on cars, so this could be that?
Then they talk about 4 separate launches of the tri-camera only and then two launches of the 8 camera which, based on the next sentance, the whole launch process will go from 2016 - 2019. Tesla is very likely to be one of these, but which is it? the 3 camera setup? the 8 camera setup? I don't think anything is certain, and it could be that they are on track to implement this "as early as 2016" or in the "2016 to 2019 timeframe".
My personal bet is that it will come either at the end of 2017 as they get closer to the Model 3, they will push down the Model S hardware into the 3, and refresh the S and X with the hot new toys to ensure that those who want to keep with the latest and greatest will buy the high price Model S/X and those who can't won't care either way, since a 35k (plus 2,500 on an option) partially self-driving car is better than anyone in that price range is likely to have available to them.
Second, your clipping out of the commentary from the CEO makes it seem like it could be Tesla, but if you go and read the whole transcript I think you are misreading the comments. Let me give that whole section for all to read:
So you have the CEO describing a product (deep learning and reading of free space) that they confirm is what is in the Tesla and then state that additionally these capabilities will be available to two OEMs in 2016. This basically means that the 2016 release is *NOT* Tesla, because Tesla already had implemented this capability. Why would Tesla need to re-release this capability if it already exists, as stated by the CEO? This doesn't flow with how the speech was prepared, and would be reading something that wasn't even hinted at.
The next paragraph then goes back to Tesla, he states that they are using a single camera, but then states that the multi-camera launches could begin as early as next year. Now, you could either read that this "early as next year" is alluding to the aforementioned two OEMs (wording doesn't fit), or most likely this is alluding to an as of yet, un-solidified date by some *other manufacturer*(s). This could be Tesla... maybe not... but it isn't confirmed to be 2016, it is a lot less certain. There are known OEMs with the three camera setup in the front upcoming on cars, so this could be that?
Then they talk about 4 separate launches of the tri-camera only and then two launches of the 8 camera which, based on the next sentance, the whole launch process will go from 2016 - 2019. Tesla is very likely to be one of these, but which is it? the 3 camera setup? the 8 camera setup? I don't think anything is certain, and it could be that they are on track to implement this "as early as 2016" or in the "2016 to 2019 timeframe".
My personal bet is that it will come either at the end of 2017 as they get closer to the Model 3, they will push down the Model S hardware into the 3, and refresh the S and X with the hot new toys to ensure that those who want to keep with the latest and greatest will buy the high price Model S/X and those who can't won't care either way, since a 35k (plus 2,500 on an option) partially self-driving car is better than anyone in that price range is likely to have available to them.
Canuck
Well-Known Member
I really hope not. Mercedes Benz is already using the slogan "More sensors, more protection" as a shot at Tesla:
Mercedes-Benz Intelligent Drive. - Mercedes-Benz
"With the aid of a thermal imaging camera, Night View Assist Plus can alert the driver to the potential danger of pedestrians or animals in unlit areas. ATTENTION ASSIST can now warn the driver of inattentiveness and drowsiness over an extended speed range."
I don't see Tesla falling further behind when it comes to hardware, especially since other automakers will have more hardware on 2017 vehicles (released in 2016) than Telsa will have. I think the hardware is coming early 2016 but the software will come a lot later, just like auto pilot 1.0. The hardware is not expensive and this is Elon Musk's pet project.
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