Any chance for upgrading hardware from "2014 Autopilot" to "2016 Autonomous ready"?

[johnbro23]

I listened to MobileEye's earnings call a few days ago, and the CEO is saying that their next system will have 8 cameras and that's all they think we'll need to become fully autonomous. It'll be enabled over time with software updates. Tesla is naturally first to market, and this new hardware suite is rolling out soon.

EM has stated that it's cost prohibitive to upgrade from non-AP to AP which makes sense because there's a significant amount of body work that needs to be done to install the sonar and radar. This next evolution is just 8 cameras plus 5 MobileEye chips, which seems a lot more feasible to install aftermarket. It's a matter of mounting the cameras and wiring everything up. MobileEye sells the chips for $200 or so, the 8 cameras cost maybe $200, add labor and high service profit margin, you're probably talking $2k. Sign me up

 

[pox]

That would be great! Unfortunately it seems like the same as last time. If it's a new harness and wiring for the 8 cameras I don't think they will do an upgrade at all.

 

[dsm363]

Agree. The chances Tesla would offer this upgrade (especially at that price) are very small. Just the folding mirror retrofit was over $2,500 if I remember correctly. Parking sensors were around $6,500.

 

[ChadS]

My crystal ball says:

The 2016 update will be available to order on a new Tesla Model S in February 2017. Somebody will ask if you can upgrade existing cars, and they will say no.

In April 2017, in response to a tweet after much outcry, Musk will announce that you can upgrade the car. But nobody at the service centers will know how, when, or how much.

In June 2017, there will be a blog on another topic that happens to state that the upgrade will cost $8,900, and you will be able to schedule it soon. Service centers will still not know anything.

In January 2018, somebody will get an email response from a Tesla VP stating that the upgrade will not be offered. The blog saying that you can schedule it soon will still be up. In general they seem to prefer to encourage us to upgrade to a new car, which makes sense from their perspective.

/crystal ball

They may surprise us with an upgrade, but chances seem very small; and it they do it may be a very long time off and very expensive. I would not count on it.

 

[johnbro23]

Agree. The chances Tesla would offer this upgrade (especially at that price) are very small. Just the folding mirror retrofit was over $2,500 if I remember correctly. Parking sensors were around $6,500.

Parking sensors require significant body work - addition of multiple sonar sensors and changes to the body (I.e. Circle cutouts for sonar). This is just tacking on 3 cameras to each front and back windshield and 2 on the sides

- - - Updated - - -

Another reason that I'm hopeful is that MobileEye has an aftermarket business today, so maybe Tesla doesn't want to devote a ton of resources to develop but MobileEye also has an incentive to see this gets to market

 

[mspohr]

That would be great! Unfortunately it seems like the same as last time. If it's a new harness and wiring for the 8 cameras I don't think they will do an upgrade at all.

You could certainly pass 8 live streams down an Ethernet or coaxial cable (it's done all of the time).
However, I think that the camera module probably does (or could do) a lot of processing locally. It would make sense to have one or more processors close to the cameras and only send a limited amount of processed data (perhaps an abstract diagram of the road, obstacles, relative velocities, etc.) to the AP system. This would take very little bandwidth and could easily be done with the existing wiring.
I recently had my front camera replaced and although it only took 20 minutes to plug in the new hardware, it took all afternoon to get the firmware up to speed and synced with the AP system. I believe that there is some fairly advanced processing taking place in the camera module.

 

[Jool]

I think they would rather sell current owners a new car instead of offering a cost-prohibitive and labor intensive upgrade.

 

[Max*]

Crystal ball: $13,500 for the retrofit.

 

[jpet]

Crystal ball: $13,500 for the retrofit.

Nahhh, that's too un-Tesla. Make that $33,500 + labor.

 

[redevries]

I think they would rather sell current owners a new car instead of offering a cost-prohibitive and labor intensive upgrade.

Service center are inundated with regular work, from Tesla's perspective selling you a new car is by far the most cost effective option.

 

[AmpedRealtor]

I listened to MobileEye's earnings call a few days ago, and the CEO is saying that their next system will have 8 cameras and that's all they think we'll need to become fully autonomous. It'll be enabled over time with software updates. Tesla is naturally first to market, and this new hardware suite is rolling out soon.

EM has stated that it's cost prohibitive to upgrade from non-AP to AP which makes sense because there's a significant amount of body work that needs to be done to install the sonar and radar. This next evolution is just 8 cameras plus 5 MobileEye chips, which seems a lot more feasible to install aftermarket. It's a matter of mounting the cameras and wiring everything up. MobileEye sells the chips for $200 or so, the 8 cameras cost maybe $200, add labor and high service profit margin, you're probably talking $2k. Sign me up

Forget about any retrofits or upgrades to the AP hardware. It won't happen. Tesla wants to sell you a new car and take your trade to make further profit. They won't do this, mark my words.

 

[dsm363]

Parking sensors require significant body work - addition of multiple sonar sensors and changes to the body (I.e. Circle cutouts for sonar). This is just tacking on 3 cameras to each front and back windshield and 2 on the sides

- - - Updated - - -

Another reason that I'm hopeful is that MobileEye has an aftermarket business today, so maybe Tesla doesn't want to devote a ton of resources to develop but MobileEye also has an incentive to see this gets to market

The parking sensors I had done are the older basic kind. They are located just on the bumpers. Not the ones on the newer cars. The only reason Tesla did it was because the wiring was already there. Are you assuming the wiring harness for the additional cameras is already there and tucked away for future use? If it isn't then the chances Tesla will offer an upgrade are close to zero.

 

[tstafford]

I kind of doubt that a retrofit will make sense for any car that exists as of the time of this post. By the time the hardware is in and the software is rolled out I bet we are deep in to 2018 best case. By then wouldn't it be better just to get a new car with all the other upgrades that have been added, a new battery, shiny new paint, etc.?

 

[sillydriver]

I suspect they may add the new sensor suite after the Model 3 is announced to keep sales of existing cars from crashing before the 3 ships in volume. If so, then they surely would not offer an upgrade, at least at a price people would accept, because the whole point would be to keep the lines running and preserve sales of existing cars.

The technical feasibility of an upgrade is a different question, and if they wanted to they could have included resources with the current suite to allow for upgrading, but I suspect they chose not to for the reason above.

 

[gg_got_a_tesla]

No chance of an upgrade, for sure. I hope the Model 3 gets the full suite early in its production cycle. I'd be happy with keeping my MS as is and getting a fully-autonomous M3!

 

[SebastianR]

I'm a bit amazed at the level of expectations here: Let me get this straight, a third party supplier to Tesla announces a product to be launched some time in the future (who knows when it will actually ship) and we are all getting sarcastic about Tesla not being able to offer a free (low-cost) upgrade to a car delivered a year ago?

I mean I love Tesla and their continuous updates and options to retrofit some stuff, but let's get some perspective here. My Audi gets - with a lot of luck - fixed when a serious issue is found with the car. I don't even get simple GUI updates let alone updates to the navigation system (unless I pay outrageous amounts of money). But here we expect a new and unknown hardware to be integrated into an - at that point 3 year old - car and get snarky about that probably costing some money?

 

[mspohr]

I suspect they may add the new sensor suite after the Model 3 is announced to keep sales of existing cars from crashing before the 3 ships in volume. If so, then they surely would not offer an upgrade, at least at a price people would accept, because the whole point would be to keep the lines running and preserve sales of existing cars.

The technical feasibility of an upgrade is a different question, and if they wanted to they could have included resources with the current suite to allow for upgrading, but I suspect they chose not to for the reason above.

We are somewhat cynical here.
However, a little reality would be in order. Tesla has never had any problem with sales. They have a large backlog of S and X (and no doubt will have a big backlog for the 3). I doubt the decision to offer an upgrade of sensors (or any other part of the car, for that matter) has anything to do with "preserving sales" and a lot to do with "is it technically feasible" at a reasonable cost. The LTE upgrade is easy and reasonably priced. Retrofitting autopilot would require disassembling a lot of the car and new wiring harnesses... hence not available.
As far as next gen cameras. That could be done over the existing wiring harness. Either an Ethernet connection or coaxial cable (I don't know what they use) could handle 8 cameras. There may be more expense and complexity in the processors and software which might make it too expensive to retrofit. We are all speculating here so best to not get our shorts all twisted up about this.

 

[MsElectric]

Nahhh, that's too un-Tesla. Make that $33,500 + labor.

Is that with or without the nonrefundable $2,500 deposit?

Seriously though the prospect of an upgrade will be very slim given the specialized housing, cables, power, and connectivity required by a host of additional cameras all across the car. The 8 camera version might also require a faster processor and additional computing resources as well...

 

[dsm363]

Tesla apparently won't even retrofit the new TPMS hardware into my car because it requires new wiring.

 

[ecarfan]

This next evolution is just 8 cameras plus 5 MobileEye chips, which seems a lot more feasible to install aftermarket. It's a matter of mounting the cameras and wiring everything up. MobileEye sells the chips for $200 or so, the 8 cameras cost maybe $200, add labor and high service profit margin, you're probably talking $2k.

It appears to me that you do not appreciate the complexity and challenges involved in adding and mounting 8 cameras to car that was not designed for them and in a way that will be reliable and secure for many years and then running the wires to connect everything.
Tesla will definitely not be retrofitting the next generation of AP hardware to current cars, just as they did not offer to retrofit older cars with the current AP hardware.
You are dreaming.