Anybody care to estimate cost to replace battery out of warranty?

[insaneoctane]

I read a sobering thread in the MS section about someone needing to replace their 60 kWh pack out of warranty. Tesla denied a good-will replacement and quoted him $11K. Most replies thought that was very fair for a refurbished pack from Tesla. I think the TM3 pack is less modular than the MS pack and therefore more likely to require a whole new pack vs a module replacement in the event of something going wrong. I also feel that Tesla batteries are pretty durable, but statistically speaking there will be failures and Tesla will not goo8 will them all. If someone loses the lottery and needs to replace their LR pack out of warranty what do you guys thick that might cost starting, say, in 2022?

 

[gaswalla]

7k

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

7k

The battery pack pricing will be expensive.
The price will be set to encourage purchase of a new vehicle.
11k.

 

[insaneoctane]

The battery pack pricing will be expensive.
The price will be set to encourage purchase of a new vehicle.
11k.

I suspect that you are right. I would like them to mitigate this issue by replacing packs out of warranty at cost (assuming the original core is returned to ensure no nefarious other use). If word gets out about $11K battery repair bill, that could scare many potential buyers away...

 

[JulienW]

I suspect that you are right. I would like them to mitigate this issue by replacing packs out of warranty at cost (assuming the original core is returned to ensure no nefarious other use). If word gets out about $11K battery repair bill, that could scare many potential buyers away...

Hope this doesn't get out too.

 

[ewoodrick]

I suspect that Tesla may support any car with battery issues for a few more years, no matter the mileage.
At that point, the number of used batteries from accidents should have increased dramatically.
It will cost a little more to replace than the S or X just because you can't quickly drop the battery.

But that's a few years away and at this point, the current batteries are showing awesome stability.

 

[camalaio]

Whole pack replacement, assuming the old pack is truly dead and of no value, should be $20,000 - $28,000.

Elon Musk on Twitter

If I recall correctly, there are four modules per pack in the Model 3. People indeed speculate that you cannot simply put one fresh module in an otherwise worn out pack.

 

[jdcollins5]

Whole pack replacement, assuming the old pack is truly dead and of no value, should be $20,000 - $28,000.

Elon Musk on Twitter

If I recall correctly, there are four modules per pack in the Model 3. People indeed speculate that you cannot simply put one fresh module in an otherwise worn out pack.

Under what circumstances would the battery be truly dead and of no value?

 

[camalaio]

Under what circumstances would the battery be truly dead and of no value?

End of usable life. They'll all wear a little different, but if you drive it for 300,000km and you only have 65% capacity, it's not like one or two of the modules are in somehow in acceptable condition even if modules of different health was OK. Or like the OP was asking, if you got the short end of the stick with your pack and it for some reason is just toast.

Of note is that utility of lithium ion cells generally drops off a cliff after about 70% original capacity. A 70% battery doesn't mean you have only used up 30% of it.

Edit: corrected pack/module wording

 

[Daniel in SD]

Right now it's about $15k (including labor) but they keep the old pack.

 

[insaneoctane]

I'm asking because I bought my Tesla knowing they have a proven track record with battery longevity second to none in the automotive industry. Nonetheless, I am planning on driving my TM3 well beyond the 120K warranty. Probably into the low 200s is there current plan and I'm just trying to guesstimate what the potential replacement liability I'll be facing while I'm out of warranty if I got statistically unlucky....

 

[Az_Rael]

Right now it's about $15k (including labor) but they keep the old pack.

This. We already have several examples of insurance pack replacements that cost $15k with the core credit.

 

[Az_Rael]

New I'm asking because I bought my Tesla knowing they have a proven track record with battery longevity second to none in the automotive industry.

I don't think that is true based on the current track record of older Model S's. Or maybe if they are the best, the "best" means you should plan for a pack replacement at some point. HV pack replacement is not rare for a Model S, you just dont see a lot of traffic on it since most are still under the unlimited mile warranty. Here is a thread with some recent failure examples: Maximum battery charge level reduced
I think Tesloop needed 2 packs to get to 400K miles for their S, (although their usage is worse case).

Would be very interesting to see the data from Tesla how many packs they have had to replace in the fleet.

 

[1FASTROD]

I also suspect that in the next 3-5 years we'll see a next generation of battery packs available for about the same price point.

When your battery goes dead you'll also have the privilege of going to a battery that last for 1 million miles, lower loss of capacity, and larger density (I.e. longer range).

My prediction in 3-5 years, $7k-$10k for next gen battery, $3k-$5k for refurb'd older gen battery, $5k-$7k for new older gen battery for the M3.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I also suspect that in the next 3-5 years we'll see a next generation of battery packs available for about the same price point.

When your battery goes dead you'll also have the privilege of going to a battery that last for 1 million miles, lower loss of capacity, and larger density (I.e. longer range).

My prediction in 3-5 years, $7k-$10k for next gen battery, $3k-$5k for refurb'd older gen battery, $5k-$7k for new older gen battery for the M3.

I bet there are posts from 5 years ago predicting the same thing for the Model S.

 

[camalaio]

I don't think that is true based on the current track record of older Model S's. Or maybe if they are the best, the "best" means you should plan for a pack replacement at some point. HV pack replacement is not rare for a Model S, you just dont see a lot of traffic on it since most are still under the unlimited mile warranty. Here is a thread with some recent failure examples: Maximum battery charge level reduced
I think Tesloop needed 2 packs to get to 400K miles for their S, (although their usage is worse case).

Would be very interesting to see the data from Tesla how many packs they have had to replace in the fleet.

Glad to see another realist! There was a fascinating website people use on here for pack health and replacement data showing that the packs last "a long time" and are way better than other EVs. It didn't exactly paint an impressive picture of health, but it did show that early Model S packs had horrendous failure rates and people must've been very thankful for that unlimited warranty. It also shows that in terms of cycle count, old Nissan Leaf batteries surprisingly were only 20% or so behind Tesla despite having no active thermal management.

I also suspect that in the next 3-5 years we'll see a next generation of battery packs available for about the same price point.

When your battery goes dead you'll also have the privilege of going to a battery that last for 1 million miles, lower loss of capacity, and larger density (I.e. longer range).

My prediction in 3-5 years, $7k-$10k for next gen battery, $3k-$5k for refurb'd older gen battery, $5k-$7k for new older gen battery for the M3.

To be frank, I don't see the point in anyone outside the company predicting a quarter of the price that Mr. Optimistic himself (Elon) has stated will be the price in the future when battery replacement is needed. Model 3's "next gen" pack improvements (relative to S/X) haven't made it to an old S/X to this day, so we have no precedent of newer methods or higher capacities making it to older packs (that I know of).

Elon has optimistically said the prices will be $20,000-$28,000 per pack (4 modules). The current $15,000 that people are paying includes a core refund since most of the cells are still usable (as they are fairly young), which is not the case some years and hundreds of miles in the future. Let's not confuse folks with our own hopes and bets when even Elon's optimistic future doesn't paint such a bargain price.

 

[ewoodrick]

I don't think that is true based on the current track record of older Model S's. Or maybe if they are the best, the "best" means you should plan for a pack replacement at some point. HV pack replacement is not rare for a Model S, you just dont see a lot of traffic on it since most are still under the unlimited mile warranty. Here is a thread with some recent failure examples: Maximum battery charge level reduced
I think Tesloop needed 2 packs to get to 400K miles for their S, (although their usage is worse case).

Would be very interesting to see the data from Tesla how many packs they have had to replace in the fleet.

But I believe that Tesloops batteries were early models and once replaced, the new ones started getting much better numbers.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Hope this doesn't get out too.

Haha. People who care about reliability and low cost repairs do not buy BMWs.

 

[Az_Rael]

But I believe that Tesloops batteries were early models and once replaced, the new ones started getting much better numbers.

Possible. The 2nd battery was replaced in 2018, two years after the first. I think they got a 90kWh as a replacement. If it was a V1, those weren’t known to be the best of the battery fleet, however if it was a V3, they would be good. They paused the service early this year it looks like.

 

[Lasttoy]

I asked about my 2012 battery. The guy in the parts department pulled it up on the screen, 22k for mine. I took picture. That was in 2017.