Anybody care to estimate cost to replace battery out of warranty?

[insaneoctane]

I'm not so sure that the foreseeable future will offer reduced pricing on Tesla battery packs. The real issue that I see is the absolute bottleneck of cell production about as far out as anyone can possibly see. With the MY, Cybertruck, Semi, and energy storage needs, it seems like cell production will be severely bottlenecked for a long time. They build the enormous Gigafactory just for this issue and they need like 5 to 10 more. Semis take a $#!t ton of cells. Just seems like spare packs will always be competing with the need for more new packs as far as I can see and this makes me sad . I will say that Tesla (and everyone producing EVs) better have an acceptable solution or else

 

[Daniel in SD]

I'm not so sure that the foreseeable future will offer reduced pricing on Tesla battery packs. The real issue that I see is the absolute bottleneck of cell production about as far out as anyone can possibly see. With the MY, Cybertruck, Semi, and energy storage needs, it seems like cell production will be severely bottlenecked for a long time. They build the enormous Gigafactory just for this issue and they need like 5 to 10 more. Semis take a $#!t ton of cells. Just seems like spare packs will always be competing with the need for more new packs as far as I can see and this makes me sad . I will say that Tesla (and everyone producing EVs) better have an acceptable solution or else

How many engines on ICE vehicles are replaced at 200k miles versus scrapping the car? It seems like the value proposition of replacing batteries is even worse since the value of a car with degraded range is much higher than the value of a car with a blown engine.

 

[Trail Runner]

The cost is $13,500. A boulder punctured mine last fall. Insurance covered the cost. I have the M3DM, AUG. 18' build

 

[Twiglett]

interesting comment in there "battery superseded by long life battery" - hmmm

 

[QS01]

The cost is $13,500. A boulder punctured mine last fall. Insurance covered the cost. I have the M3DM, AUG. 18' buildView attachment 509444

WOW. $13.5k is much higher than I was expecting it would be... This doesn't fair well for a replacement when the time comes and may even outweigh the savings in gas over the years... I was expecting $7-8k

 

[Revelation]

WOW. $13.5k is much higher than I was expecting it would be... This doesn't fair well for a replacement when the time comes and may even outweigh the savings in gas over the years... I was expecting $7-8k

By the time you need to replace your battery the cost will most likely be below $7k. No need to fret what the cost is today if you are not needing to replace your battery today.

 

[derotam]

interesting comment in there "battery superseded by long life battery" - hmmm

Just curious, what is the note in regards to the battery(price?)? There is an * next to the cost on the battery, is there a note associated with the * ?

 

[Az_Rael]

By the time you need to replace your battery the cost will most likely be below $7k. No need to fret what the cost is today if you are not needing to replace your battery today.

What do you think will drive battery replacement costs down that far?

Tesla is charging $11k for S60 replacement batteries today, 8 year later. My guess is they will move on to some new battery architecture for the 3 between now and 2025 (when the 2017s 3s are 8 years old). In that case, current gen Model 3 refurb batteries may stay expensive like the old S60 since they wont be in production anymore.

 

[Revelation]

What do you think will drive battery replacement costs down that far?

Tesla is charging $11k for S60 replacement batteries today, 8 year later. My guess is they will move on to some new battery architecture for the 3 between now and 2025 (when the 2017s 3s are 8 years old). In that case, current gen Model 3 refurb batteries may stay expensive like the old S60 since they wont be in production anymore.

Advancements in battery technology, such as dry-electrode. We will learn more on battery investor day and have a better idea of what it will be in the future.

 

[Az_Rael]

Advancements in battery technology, such as dry-electrode. We will learn more on battery investor day and have a better idea of what it will be in the future.

Sure, that was my point. The question will be if they can make the new technology batteries retrofittable onto the older cars. If they can not then we may still need the old expensive battery tech for replacements in 8/10 years, just like those current S60s can’t use the 2170 battery architecture today.

 

[MasterC17]

I don't think $13,500 is at all expensive for a new battery pack. Especially given this is the "higher-end" version (LR). What do you think it would cost to replace the engine in a BMW 3-Series?

I can tell you. It's about $20k for the mid-tier 6-cylinder. An M3, $25k or more. And they can blow up for a variety of reasons (sucking water in through a big puddle, lack of frequent oil changes, mechanical failure, driving over object in road, etc).

In my experience, most modern BMW/Mercedes/Audi engines aren't going to last you more than 200k miles. So, I feel this is a pretty apples-apples comparison. And like BMW/Mercedes/Audi, you will be able to install a used battery into your car years from now if you don't want to spend the money on a new one.

Nonetheless, it's silly to think it will become more expensive in the future. History tells us otherwise.

 

[derotam]

Sure, that was my point. The question will be if they can make the new technology batteries retrofittable onto the older cars. If they can not then we may still need the old expensive battery tech for replacements in 8/10 years, just like those current S60s can’t use the 2170 battery architecture today.

I think this will all depend on where the incompatibilities are physically, and what space is physically required for any necessary updated components. Since there is a lot going on in the Penthouse on the battery pack in the 3, it is possible that they would just be able to change/tweak the electronics there to support a different cell type. Then it would be a matter of the physical arrangement of cells in the existing battery pack case, keeping cooling and other safety requirements in mind. Or they could also just have a new case with a different internal structure to suppor the ned technology while maintaining the external specifications.

i would hope that Tesla is thinking about this possibility.

 

[jboy210]

I don't think $13,500 is at all expensive for a new battery pack. Especially given this is the "higher-end" version (LR). What do you think it would cost to replace the engine in a BMW 3-Series?

I can tell you. It's about $20k for the mid-tier 6-cylinder. An M3, $25k or more. And they can blow up for a variety of reasons (sucking water in through a big puddle, lack of frequent oil changes, mechanical failure, driving over object in road, etc).

In my experience, most modern BMW/Mercedes/Audi engines aren't going to last you more than 200k miles. So, I feel this is a pretty apples-apples comparison. And like BMW/Mercedes/Audi, you will be able to install a used battery into your car years from now if you don't want to spend the money on a new one.

Nonetheless, it's silly to think it will become more expensive in the future. History tells us otherwise.

Agreed. 2 of our BMW 3 series needed Turbo and wastegate replacements at 80,000 and 90,000 miles. One was $7,400, the other was 7,900. I would never own another one out of warranty.

 

[Nocturnal]

The cost is $13,500. A boulder punctured mine last fall. Insurance covered the cost. I have the M3DM, AUG. 18' buildView attachment 509444

That's for the entire battery. Elon said that just replacing the modules would be 6k IIRC in the event of degradation rather than outright damage.

Elon Musk makes incredible claims about Tesla Model 3 longevity, will offer battery module replacement - Electrek

Model 3 drive unit & body is designed like a commercial truck for a million mile life. Current battery modules should last 300k to 500k miles (1500 cycles). Replacing modules (not pack) will only cost $5k to $7k.

 

[Revelation]

I cannot see Tesla keeping around "old" battery manufacturing mechanisms after they move on to newer tech. For instance I imagine the next S and X refresh will at least get the 21700 batteries if not the new sauce they are working on.

Tesla will want to streamline the battery assembly lines and manufacturing spaces at some point. It doesn't make sense to have 2+ battery production lines online.

 

[Nocturnal]

I cannot see Tesla keeping around "old" battery manufacturing mechanisms after they move on to newer tech. For instance I imagine the next S and X refresh will at least get the 21700 batteries if not the new sauce they are working on.

Tesla will want to streamline the battery assembly lines and manufacturing spaces at some point. It doesn't make sense to have 2+ battery production lines online.

That depends on how fast they can scale the new lines. I can definitely see them continuing to use Panasonic for quite a long time. The older batteries can go into lower trims/models, or be used in grid storage etc.

 

[Uncle Paul]

The biggest focus at Tesla is not making more cars (relatively easy) but making more batteries.

The new patented Maxwell technology of dry production is a quantum leap towards that goal.

Wet batteries are printed, like an ink jet printer. That uses solvents that must be recollected in the drying process. EPA restricts how this must be done, as they do not allow the solvent to be vented into the atmosphere.

Maxwell prints battery more like a Laser Printer. The substrate is printed with a dry ink (like toner) and is heat fused into the substrate. This comes out of the printing dry and instantly cools. Eliminates huge drying rooms, tremendous energy to dry the substrate and there are no fumes to be collected and condensed. The extended drying time (days) is eliminated and the substrate comes out of the printer ready to be made into batteries.

Cannot underestimate how much faster, cheaper and more consistant this process is than the previous wet system used by all the other producers.

This alone will cut tremendous costs, reduce energy expended, and vastly speed up the time to make the cells.

Other companies and universities are working hard to make breakthroughs like this, but Tesla seems to be the first to make it ready for production.

They are currently setting up a pilot plant to use technology like this to make their own cells.

Will make replacements at end of life much less expensive as well.

Tesla can use the savings to either increase profitability or decrease prices to make their vehicles less expensive.

GAME CHANGER!

 

[Twiglett]

The biggest focus at Tesla is not making more cars (relatively easy) but making more batteries.

The new patented Maxwell technology of dry production is a quantum leap towards that goal.

Wet batteries are printed, like an ink jet printer. That uses solvents that must be recollected in the drying process. EPA restricts how this must be done, as they do not allow the solvent to be vented into the atmosphere.

Maxwell prints battery more like a Laser Printer. The substrate is printed with a dry ink (like toner) and is heat fused into the substrate. This comes out of the printing dry and instantly cools. Eliminates huge drying rooms, tremendous energy to dry the substrate and there are no fumes to be collected and condensed. The extended drying time (days) is eliminated and the substrate comes out of the printer ready to be made into batteries.

Cannot underestimate how much faster, cheaper and more consistant this process is than the previous wet system used by all the other producers.

This alone will cut tremendous costs, reduce energy expended, and vastly speed up the time to make the cells.

Other companies and universities are working hard to make breakthroughs like this, but Tesla seems to be the first to make it ready for production.

They are currently setting up a pilot plant to use technology like this to make their own cells.

Will make replacements at end of life much less expensive as well.

Tesla can use the savings to either increase profitability or decrease prices to make their vehicles less expensive.

GAME CHANGER!

I'll bet this is why they are starting their own production so the tech doesn't escape to Panasonic

 

[M3BlueGeorgia]

I don't think $13,500 is at all expensive for a new battery pack. Especially given this is the "higher-end" version (LR). What do you think it would cost to replace the engine in a BMW 3-Series?

I can tell you. It's about $20k for the mid-tier 6-cylinder. An M3, $25k or more. And they can blow up for a variety of reasons (sucking water in through a big puddle, lack of frequent oil changes, mechanical failure, driving over object in road, etc).

In my experience, most modern BMW/Mercedes/Audi engines aren't going to last you more than 200k miles. So, I feel this is a pretty apples-apples comparison. And like BMW/Mercedes/Audi, you will be able to install a used battery into your car years from now if you don't want to spend the money on a new one.

Nonetheless, it's silly to think it will become more expensive in the future. History tells us otherwise.

It wasn't clear from the invoice is whether this is to replace one of the four battery modules, or to replace the whole set of modules?

 

[Daniel in SD]

It wasn't clear from the invoice is whether this is to replace one of the four battery modules, or to replace the whole set of modules?

The service centers do not service batteries, it's always a complete swap. Presumably they are getting refurbished somewhere. It is $13.5k (plus $875 labor) to fix anything on the battery even if there is no damage to any of the modules.