How about a 'gentlemen's bet': No money, just bragging rights. The X will launch with a bigger battery IF the existing '85' battery can not give at least 250 mile range. If the '85' can give 250 EPA miles then TM will hold off on the >85 until mid 2016 as it works through the backlog of 2 year old reservations.
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How about a 'gentlemen's bet': No money, just bragging rights. The X will launch with a bigger battery IF the existing '85' battery can not give at least 250 mile range. If the '85' can give 250 EPA miles then TM will hold off on the >85 until mid 2016 as it works through the backlog of 2 year old reservations.
I'd be really surprised if they introduced the X with a range of only 250 EPA miles. At 80% charge, that would put you under 200 miles range within a few months. Well, it might not put YOU at under 200 miles that fast, but it would put me there very quickly with the mileage I drive.
I think Tesla will be roasted by the press and the stock will drop if the top mileage Model X has a range 20 miles below the current S85D. I think Elon Musk is far too intelligent to let that happen.
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In the announcement of Tesla Roadster 3.0 it's written
Roadster 3.0 | Tesla Motors
So I don't think we will see a bigger battery pack to Model S
Roadster 3.0 | Tesla Motors
deonb
Active Member
Again, this isn't a thread about speculation about the April 30th Event (which isn't car related). This is a thread about the April 30th 'Warmup Act' to that event that Elon referred to. See first post.
Maybe Mods can rename this thread to something like: "April 30th Warmup Act SPECULATION" ?
Near term? Does anyone know what Tesla's definition of "near term" is? The 70D announcement came after a statement not that many months ago saying there would be no major platform changes to the Model S for at least a year, or something like that. I guess it's debatable whether the 70kwh pack is considered a "platform change."
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Thread title is fine, people just need to improve their reading comprehension :/
Apparently a new firmware was released in the past day, .168, that is the actual 3.1 second performance enhancing update as it states it in the release notes.
I think this may support my theory that the 2.8s 0-60 may only be possible with the larger 100/105kW battery pack- why release that update now when 2.8s is possible, just to release it in a couple weeks? I think the "warm up act" and him discussing how the Model S can get to 2.8s potentially has to be a battery upgrade.
The "warm up act" may even just be him demonstrating the actual 2.8s launch and then saying more details will be later on the battery upgrade. Start the April 30th act discussing a battery upgrade to the Model S and their innovation with battery tech is a perfect segway into discussing a battery for the home.
With the Model X delays I've always thought it was because the actual real world range has been very poor. Elon has even mentioned he'd like the MX to also have towing capabilities, that just isn't happening with an 85kW battery. If deliveries are to start in a few months, that battery pack has to be ready to go right now.
Apparently a new firmware was released in the past day, .168, that is the actual 3.1 second performance enhancing update as it states it in the release notes.
I think this may support my theory that the 2.8s 0-60 may only be possible with the larger 100/105kW battery pack- why release that update now when 2.8s is possible, just to release it in a couple weeks? I think the "warm up act" and him discussing how the Model S can get to 2.8s potentially has to be a battery upgrade.
The "warm up act" may even just be him demonstrating the actual 2.8s launch and then saying more details will be later on the battery upgrade. Start the April 30th act discussing a battery upgrade to the Model S and their innovation with battery tech is a perfect segway into discussing a battery for the home.
With the Model X delays I've always thought it was because the actual real world range has been very poor. Elon has even mentioned he'd like the MX to also have towing capabilities, that just isn't happening with an 85kW battery. If deliveries are to start in a few months, that battery pack has to be ready to go right now.
I agree that there won't be discussion of a "future" battery upgrade, but there may be discussion of a "current" battery upgrade. The discussion will take place when the battery upgrade is ready to go or has already happened, so it doesn't torpedo current sales. There will definitely be a battery upgrade, it's just a question of when. My money is on it being with the release of the specs on the Model X. Here's my new question: If the 85kwh battery option on the Model S is replaced with a 100/105kwh battery, will that be a running change similar to the way Autopilot features were introduced? In other words, will some people with existing 85kwh batteries be surprised to find out upon taking delivery (or maybe even afterwards) that their car has the new battery? Maybe that question should be the topic of a new thread.
qwertzy
Member
But if the 85kwh batteries were actually 100kwh ones, then why not advertise it at the launch like the 70D?
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
Just playing devil's advocate here. I don't really think we all have 100kWh batteries in our P85Ds. But...
...If we did, there could be reasons to not advertise it at the launch.
Tesla was already going to sell every P85D it could manufacture. There was no need to increase demand. Think of the marketing hype if they could now come out and say, "Guess what--those cars we've been selling with 85kWh batteries really have 100kWh batteries. That's what we do. We always under-promise and over deliver. When you buy a car from Tesla, you know you'll always get at least what you pay for, but you never know how much more we might give you, as a bonus."
Can you imagine what the press would be like? And what something like this could do for future sales, when Tesla is not production-constrained?
Again, I'm not saying this happened. Just giving one reason why it wouldn't have been a ridiculous idea to not announce at launch.
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Kind of like what happened with the S60 guys when the S70D was announced? It would probably work the same way if announcing the P100D and discontinuing the P85D.
Ok... probably going to get in trouble for saying this, but for those of you with P85D's out there... It's not always about YOU! There are a lot of other current and future owner's of 85kwh battery cars, and they are also affected when the battery capacity changes.
Regarding how happy everyone would be to find out that somewhere along the line the battery changed from 85kwh to 100kwh but they just didn't tell us, consider also that there would be a date prior to which the cars produced really did have 85kwh batteries. Those owners would not be happy, just as the pre-autopilot owners weren't happy.
That, plus what wk057 said. Although I assume that's from testing his own P85D. I suppose it's possible the battery could have changed between 12/22/2014 and now?
Andyw2100
Well-Known Member
There's a pretty big distinction there. The switch to autopilot was completely arbitrary. Ask breser about that. If his car had been built a day or two later, he would have had autopilot hardware. Yet Tesla did that anyway.
In the scenario that I presented THAT I DON'T BELIEVE HAPPENED it would have been an entire model getting the upgraded battery. That's very different.
Of note is that the P85Ds did, in fact, get a new version of the 85kWh battery--the E. That's just what Tesla does.
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Do other versions (85, 85D) produced after the P85D introduction not have the E battery?
Also, unfortunately "tone" doesn't come across when typing. I meant the "It's not always about YOU!" to be humorous. As I just re-read it, I can see where it might not come across that way. No offense intenteded.
Also, unfortunately "tone" doesn't come across when typing. I meant the "It's not always about YOU!" to be humorous. As I just re-read it, I can see where it might not come across that way. No offense intenteded.
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MarcG
Active Member
I would actually be happy just getting closer to the advertised 85 kWh capacity to begin with.
During my longest drive so far which I did from 100% SoC to 0.8% (2 miles remaining), the car reported only 75.2 kWh were used.
I understand it's important not to completely drain a Li-Ion battery, but keeping over 10% of total capacity as "reserve" is a lot.
In my humble opinion, it would be better if Tesla advertised the 85 kWh pack as really being 75 or 80 kWh, since that's all we really get to use anyway...
During my longest drive so far which I did from 100% SoC to 0.8% (2 miles remaining), the car reported only 75.2 kWh were used.
I understand it's important not to completely drain a Li-Ion battery, but keeping over 10% of total capacity as "reserve" is a lot.
In my humble opinion, it would be better if Tesla advertised the 85 kWh pack as really being 75 or 80 kWh, since that's all we really get to use anyway...
The idea some of us are already sitting on larger 100kW+ batteries is a bit crazy guys. There's no way Tesla would have slipped us more for our money when it comes to a battery, and not brag about it and announce a 100kW+ battery to the world.
with that said, when the new battery is actually announced they will find a way to make money off it. By 2020, the fully loaded P model of the Model S will likely reach $175,000 - in my opinion. That would be on par with a fully loaded S63 AMG and Porsche Panamera Turbo.
with that said, when the new battery is actually announced they will find a way to make money off it. By 2020, the fully loaded P model of the Model S will likely reach $175,000 - in my opinion. That would be on par with a fully loaded S63 AMG and Porsche Panamera Turbo.
I don't buy this conclusion. Tesla's track record has shown that they have a general ballpark for the top Model S configuration. I don't think we'll ever see a "general consumer"* Model S over US$140K.
* "TV role" Model S I put in a different category.
That's quite a bold claim, especially one that does not account for inflation. But it's your opinion, and you are entitled to it of
course.
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