Are Supercharger stations close enough for Gen 3?

[ratsbew]

Assuming that Gen 3 has a 200 mile range, will the current supercharger network allow cross country travel? The current network is setup so that a Model S can do a quick 20 minute charge and make it to the next station. If the Gen 3 has to do a 100% charge it would have to stay plugged in for an hour at each stop.

 

[jeff_adams]

That is pretty hard to answer at this time. No one knows the aerodynamics of it. Maybe it fares better or worse than the Model S in poor weather. It should have the same range as a Model S 60kwh

 

[Joel]

Assuming that Gen 3 has a 200 mile range, will the current supercharger network allow cross country travel? The current network is setup so that a Model S can do a quick 20 minute charge and make it to the next station. If the Gen 3 has to do a 100% charge it would have to stay plugged in for an hour at each stop.

To answer a broader question, will the proposed 2015 Super Charger infrastructure support Gen III. I believe the answer is no. 1) there will be minimally 100,000 units sold in the USA alone (and that is conservative) annually when Gen III goes into production. So, I do not believe there will be enough stations for the volume ramp up. 2) the distance between super chargers considering elevation and cold weather climate may be cutting it close for Gen III.

However, I firmly believe Tesla will increase the number of sites and expand the number of charging stations at existing sites after 2015. When Gen III comes out, the Walmarts, Costcos, Targets, commercial developers such as Simon Group, CBL Properties and others will want a Super Charger presence on (or expand at) their properties. Keep in mind if tesla sells power trains to another manufacturers and allows super charging, that is even more volume.

 

[ItsNotAboutTheMoney]

To answer a broader question, will the proposed 2015 Super Charger infrastructure support Gen III. I believe the answer is no. 1) there will be minimally 100,000 units sold in the USA alone (and that is conservative) annually when Gen III goes into production. So, I do not believe there will be enough stations for the volume ramp up. 2) the distance between super chargers considering elevation and cold weather climate may be cutting it close for Gen III.

However, I firmly believe Tesla will increase the number of sites and expand the number of charging stations at existing sites after 2015. When Gen III comes out, the Walmarts, Costcos, Targets, commercial developers such as Simon Group, CBL Properties and others will want a Super Charger presence on (or expand at) their properties. Keep in mind if tesla sells power trains to another manufacturers and allows super charging, that is even more volume.

Right. The first thing is to enable travel and keep building volume. However, I think that long term you'll see more Superchargers at hotels than retail. Hotels have restaurants and vending that aren't busy except for breakfast, plenty of parking thats freest during the day, have high power usage anyway, are often located close to Interstates, operate 24 hours, 365.25 days a year and would welcome any extra business they can get. If I had a hotel chain I'd be making it known that I'd be happy to have Superchargers, especially if Tesla would like to throw in some L2.

 

[Lump]

How much are Gen 3 buyers willing to pay for supercharger capability? Will someone paying 35k be willing to pay 5k for supercharging?

 

[Parzival]

I believe it has been said before that Gen 3 will be offered with multiple battery sizes. I'm expecting the base model to offer similar range as the 60-kWh Model S, and like the S, supercharging probably won't be included on the base model.

 

[stopcrazypp]

How much are Gen 3 buyers willing to pay for supercharger capability? Will someone paying 35k be willing to pay 5k for supercharging?

I'm not sure why people keep suggesting that it'll have to cost more per vehicle to have supercharging for Gen 3. Keep in mind that sure the number of cars go up, but the total sum that Tesla gets also goes up linearly with the number of cars. So for example with 100k Gen III, with the same $2k fee, Tesla gets $200 million in total. I suspect Tesla will charge the same fee, not more.

 

[AMPd]

To answer a broader question, will the proposed 2015 Super Charger infrastructure support Gen III. I believe the answer is no. 1) there will be minimally 100,000 units sold in the USA alone (and that is conservative) annually when Gen III goes into production. So, I do not believe there will be enough stations for the volume ramp up.

You bring up an interesting point, will the current 10 bay sites fulfill the needs of S/X/GenIII?
By the time the Gen 3 is released we will have 60K+ Model S vehicles on the road, that alone might create a waiting line at some SCs, now fast forward 2 years later 100K+ Model Ss and 100K+ Gen 3s and maybe 50K+ model Xs on the road! That is a lot of Teslas
TM will definitely need to expand most if not all of the sites!

 

[ToddRLockwood]

Elon stated in a recent interview that the standard spacing for Supercharger stations has been reduced to 130 miles to accommodate the 60kWh Model S. I'm sure there will be exceptions, but eventually we should see them at even closer spacing.

 

[Lump]

I'm not sure why people keep suggesting that it'll have to cost more per vehicle to have supercharging for Gen 3. Keep in mind that sure the number of cars go up, but the total sum that Tesla gets also goes up linearly with the number of cars. So for example with 100k Gen III, with the same $2k fee, Tesla gets $200 million in total. I suspect Tesla will charge the same fee, not more.

Charging more then $2k for a desirable feature will probably be needed to keep a decent profit margin.

 

[hockeythug]

However, I firmly believe Tesla will increase the number of sites and expand the number of charging stations at existing sites after 2015. When Gen III comes out, the Walmarts, Costcos, Targets, commercial developers such as Simon Group, CBL Properties and others will want a Super Charger presence on (or expand at) their properties.

Could Tesla "franchise" superchargers to these properties/businesses? Tesla pays for the construction and in turn gets a fee from the property owner?

 

[MarkR]

I have EVERY faith that Tesla will accommodate the charging and driving characteristics of the Gen III when the supercharger network is designed. Can you just imagine the negative press if a lot of Gen IIIs were regularly stranded all over the country?

 

[jerry33]

Could Tesla "franchise" superchargers to these properties/businesses? Tesla pays for the construction and in turn gets a fee from the property owner?

I believe Elon said he was concerned that non-Tesla-owned Superchargers would have questionable maintenance. By keeping control Tesla can ensure that any broken ones are repaired quickly.

 

[Joel]

Could Tesla "franchise" superchargers to these properties/businesses? Tesla pays for the construction and in turn gets a fee from the property owner?

No. They will most likely not franchise. Unlike other ev charging infrastructure, Tesla's have in-car capability to locate Super Chargers and Tesla pays for 100% of the project. If you own an establishment that your customer base drives to anyway, this is a no brainier. You are not giving anything up. The parking spaces are going to be used by tesla owners whether or not you have a super charger. However, the super charger enables Tesla owners to locate your establishment at no cost to you (the in-car dash navigates you there). And any tesla owner will choose your establishment over your competitor down the road Because you offer value (free charging) your competitor does not.

Plus Tesla wants to use super charging as grid storage, so it is essential to own this network. Also, Super chargers are a small capital investment. According to the Maryland permit, the approximate cost of a SC is 100K (without solar). Installing 300 SCs costs $30 million. Tesla will not have to be concerned with this capital investment. Also, once the volume ramps up, the sell to any business is easy: "it costs you zero dollars to attract 500,000 (fill in the number) of potential customers that have in-car nav. Here are the staticstics of SC usage from the last three years...."

No. I do not envision Tesla franchising these.

 

[tomas]

Battery and charging technology at this scale is still in infancy. Part of gen III answer may be more & closer superchargers. Part may be higher capacity and/or less expensive battery technology. And, it's been pretty clear that Tesla is looking at both charging and swapping. The Gen III answer may be expansion of swapping. I expect something unexpected, not necessarily the same approach as Model S.

 

[aronth5]

Charging more then $2k for a desirable feature will probably be needed to keep a decent profit margin.

Charging more than $2k makes little sense. Gen3 is supposed to be a car for the masses. Asking new buyers for more money is simply counter productive to Elon's goal.
As pointed out earlier 100k Gen3's will raise $200 million for expanding the supercharger network. That could potentially mean approximately 1,333 more supercharger stations based on an average cost of $150k. (yes a guess on the cost I know). With less than 19k towns in this country that creates even more momentum for selling more and more Tesla's as range anxiety keeps decreasing and as batteries get better. The next 100k cars sold could add another 1000+ stations and so on and so on.

 

[stopcrazypp]

Charging more then $2k for a desirable feature will probably be needed to keep a decent profit margin.

I think the base assumption for Gen III is the margins won't be as high, so it seems a bit ridiculous to charge a higher price than the Model S. A typical quick charge option costs less than $1000 (it's decreasing and starting to become a standard option: it just became standard on the iMIEV). I don't know about supercharging, but if it doesn't come with a quick charge option that's comparable in price, I think Gen III will fail (as I think most competitors by 2017 will have the quick charging option be relatively inexpensive).

 

[richkae]

Assuming that Gen 3 has a 200 mile range, will the current supercharger network allow cross country travel? The current network is setup so that a Model S can do a quick 20 minute charge and make it to the next station. If the Gen 3 has to do a 100% charge it would have to stay plugged in for an hour at each stop.

Don't forget that the Gen 3 should be more efficient than the Model S by being smaller and lighter.
A car that is 20% more energy efficient than another car with the same battery will supercharge 20% faster in terms of miles of range gained per time charging.

 

[Electroman]

Gen3 will have a range between 150 to 180 and no more. With that range no amount of Super charger density will make it a convenient long trip car.

A Dallas to Houston trip will take two 100% charging stops and that will burn around 2.5 hours.

Of course these are my speculation and I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

 

[EnergyMax]

Gen3 will have a range between 150 to 180 and no more. With that range no amount of Super charger density will make it a convenient long trip car.

A Dallas to Houston trip will take two 100% charging stops and that will burn around 2.5 hours.

Of course these are my speculation and I would love to be pleasantly surprised.

Your speculation does not match numerous Tesla statements.