Are you also investing in Tesla?

[Norbert]

I think #6,498 was found on the world map without date. As far as I can tell, there are about 1000 reservations since Dec 8th (minus cancellations, which seem to be small in comparison).

 

[jcstp]

ok, i was too enthousiast apparently

 

[Robert.Boston]

1,000 in 30 days is still pretty impressive, when you consider that the target production is ~1,650 / month.

Starting from a backlog of ~8,800 on January 1, if:

• Reservations continue to come at 1,000/month, and
• Tesla hits its production targets of 5,000 in 2012 and 20,000 annually thereafter

then Tesla won't work through its full backlog until December 2014.

 

[dsm363]

I believe Elon Musk said they could produce more cars by adding additional shifts if the backlog gets to be too big.

 

[Fr23shjive]

Looks like the war drums are beating for Iran and this could cause a dramatic rise in oil prices. Do you guys think this could cause a big jump in Tesla shares?

Rising oil prices + deliveries of the first Model S' + unveiling of the Model X = Nice jump in price in the next 6 months. The problem is that the market doesnt always behave rationally. Even though there are numerous "overweight" ratings and price targets of $35+ the stock is still trading at $27/share. I'm not sure where the stock is heading in the short term. I think, long-term, the stock is a sure thing but in the short term it's tough to say.

 

[Mycroft]

Exactly, short term is anyone's guess. It could be that nothing happens with the stock until deliveries or even later. But if you wait and there's a jump after some big auto review, you'll miss out.

Best is to buy with the long term in mind. In other words, invest rather than gamble.

 

[AnOutsider]

Best is to buy with the long term in mind. In other words, invest rather than gamble.

Mr Holmes has it right!

 

[Larry Chanin]

Best is to buy with the long term in mind. In other words, invest rather than gamble.

Hi Mycroft,

That's a very astute bit of advice.

Since many of us have a strong emotional tie to Tesla vehicles it is only natural that many reservation holders, beyond their deposit, also invest in the company by making stock purchases. I have noted that a number of reservation holders are hoping that their Tesla holdings will either pay for their Model S outright, or at least pay for some options. For U.S. reservation holders delivery of their Model S should probably be considered a short term event. If so, U.S. reservation holders who are buying Tesla stock now with the expectation of later using it to pay for all or part of a Model S, would be taking a risky gamble for such a volatile stock because they can't be assured the timing of stock price increases will coincide with the car's purchase date.

Like others I have considered the advisiblity of investing in Tesla stock while waiting for delivery of my Model S. However, for those of us who are risk adverse it seems the prudent course of action is to either ensure we have enough funds to cover both the entire cost of our vehicle and an additional amount for a long term investment. In other words if we can't afford both amounts we should avoid earmarking a short-term "investment", i.e. gamble, as part of the downpayment for the car.

I'd be interested in your and other forum member's further thoughts on the subject.

Thanks.

Larry

 

[smorgasbord]

It depends on how risk-adverse you are, and how much you need a new car.

If you truly believe in Tesla long term, then if the stock doesn't appreciate in time for you to buy your Model S, you postpone delivery (reservation holders get a one-time deferral option). If it's still not up by then, you cancel your order and wait. But, that's only viable if you don't need the car in that time-frame. While it would be disappointing to not get the Model S you wanted, that probably won't be devastating to your finances.

If you truly need the car but can't afford both to invest in Tesla and buy the car, then perhaps you shouldn't invest.

Note that like buying your own company's stock in your 401K, buying both the car and the stock heavily leverages you into Tesla's success. Should Tesla fail, you could lose your entire stock investment and have a car that's not service-able and so may rapidly decline in value like other defunct car company vehicles have.

 

[Tech26]

I'm planning to invest about $2,500 next week. :smile:

 

[EVNow]

Apparently the market doesn't care about the Feb 9th X reveal. The stock continues to slide ... I wonder what further resistance points it will test.

 

[Adm]

The market appears to need something more tangible than an announcement. A well received design of Model X will do that. That or good numbers in the quarterly earnings report.

 

[Cobos]

Considering I've got 100 more shares with my name on them I just hope Tesla continues to slide all the way down to $24.5. That's when I'm buying. While I'm asking anyway, preferably within the next few weeks

Cobos

 

[VolkerP]

Don't play on the media to support Tesla. Right now they play the tunes "EVs are not for the masses or we would see the masses buying them". When Tesla announces superb deposit numbers, e.g. >15k for Model S and >5k for Model X by Q1 financial call on April 2012, media will report "Tesla cannot deliver" or, more general "EV manufacturers not ready to support demand" and will line it up with "hampering deliveries of LEAF and Volt in 2011". Blech.

 

[Trnsl8r]

And the pundits seem to have no one's axe to grind but their own:

America's Sad Love Affair With the Electric Car


600% Growth Industry: Electric Cars - TheStreet

I don't see how they could have such wildly different opinions unless they are doing their own shorts and longs, so to speak...

 

[ckessel]

Got my $35k back from downgrading my Sig. It'll be a couple days before it now transfers into my (long inactive, I don't play stock markets) Ameritrade account so I can buy TSLA. Here's hoping TSLA hits a horrible depression for a few days so I can buy low . Just for fun, I tried to calculate how much the stock would have to rise for me to afford the performance model S. Yea, not going to happen. Less fun was figuring how much it'd drop before I couldn't buy at all. Odds are good my reservation number won't come up until November-ish, so I'm hoping to ride multiple positive announcements, including initial deliveries, then sell off.

 

[kvietor]

Although I can't afford both the total cost of my Signature and a large investment (2800 shares) in Tesla, I did get a HELOC for 3.25%. So if the market cooperates and Tesla rises to a respectable level in the next six months (say $50/share) I can use the profits rather than the loan to finance my car. Other wise, I'll take the long term approach and wait for the world to respond to the sucess of Tesla via wall street.

 

[Norbert]

While I can totally understand the concept of selling for funding an S purchase, I feel like mentioning that I'd expect the real gain of TSLA to come with Bluestar and/or when EVs actually start becoming mainstream.

 

[JRP3]

By then it will be too late since the market is supposed to be forward looking. A successful Model S rollout with high interest in Model X will do the trick in my opinion. Tesla can be successful before EV's become mainstream.

 

[Norbert]

Sure, I'm not doubting that. But in a sense I think it will be the beginning of an even larger success.