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My friends keep asking me when I'm getting mine. My response is a mixture of pessimism and hope. I say "Originally 14-20 weeks, which is 20 May to 1 July, but..."

And then reply with the following.

The bad:
Shanghai is locked down, so that's about 20,000 cars not being built each week (I think that's what I read, but I haven't double checked).
There are people who ordered Performance versions in November with a 8-12 week wait, who are still waiting 20 + weeks later

The hopeful:
When Fremont closed in 2020 for COVID, upon opening, they pushed out a lot of international orders to get the boats moving again, which probably shortened a few delivery times overall. That could happen to mine if the Shanghai factory decides to do a run of Performance versions that just clears all the outstanding orders.
At some point, hopefully in the next month, the Shanghai factory will realise there were probably double the number of Performance orders than they budgeted for, and fix the budgeting, which gets me my car earlier.

But at the end of those points, I overexaggerate shrugging my shoulders and say "but I honestly have no idea whatsoever when I'll get my car"
Pretty much this for everyone right now.

The only thing I hold on to in positive thoughts is that Tesla has said nothing about delays and many of us haven't had a change in our delivery estimation. This tells me they are optimistic about being able to catch up and probably won't communicate anything about delays until its absolutely certain.
 
Pretty much this for everyone right now.

The only thing I hold on to in positive thoughts is that Tesla has said nothing about delays and many of us haven't had a change in our delivery estimation. This tells me they are optimistic about being able to catch up and probably won't communicate anything about delays until its absolutely certain.
I tend to agree with this. There is also a clear delineation between those Q4/early Q1 orders with shorter wait times. And anything afterwards which have a massive 6-9 month buffer. Really all they 'need' to catch up on is the former. I assume some Q4 orders were hampered by floods creating a logistical migraine potentially leading to order redirects, shutdowns of transport companies, scheduling nightmares from stranded trucks, rediversion of transport resources or perhaps even destruction of stock.
 
Pretty much this for everyone right now.

The only thing I hold on to in positive thoughts is that Tesla has said nothing about delays and many of us haven't had a change in our delivery estimation. This tells me they are optimistic about being able to catch up and probably won't communicate anything about delays until its absolutely certain.

I'm likely being cynical by thinking Tesla wouldn't announce delays if there were several months buffer until it reached a few months late.

I really hope I'm wrong
 
Yep, mine disappeared too. Apparently, I’ve been told that happens and it is nothing to worry about.
When I am logged into my account it does not give any delivery estimate. It was 5 - 7 months when I placed my order(Early march), but nothing about delivery estimate has been seen since.
where y’all located ? i’m in Perth. Ordered 25/02. Still have 5-7 months stated. But yeh believe it doesn’t mean much it’ll chop and change and come and go from other peoples experiences.
 
My account still showing 14-20 weeks; although I suspect that Tesla wouldn't provide updates on dates until they had a firm idea of how long.
🤷‍♂️
Shanghai has only been locked down for a bit over 2 weeks so far. Our 14-20 week delivery window is 6 weeks long. So we're not even halfway through that 6 week buffer zone. If they miss the early May Aus production run then we'll probably get bumped. That's assuming they don't just rejig the production schedule to get exports out due to them having a far longer freight time than local deliveries. And sales figures are based on the delivery transactions so they'll want the best Q2 sales figures in the most markets possible. Both to retain the 'market dominance' momentum and to maintain their stock price. Rather than huge sales figures in China and low figures everywhere else.

Plus Beijing is apparently telling local Shanghai gov't to ensure smooth and efficient frieght and logistics (i.e. stop blocking truck drivers). See 5:55 -
 
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Another schedule change for the RORO Cargo to Aus.
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