Autonomous Car Progress

[EVNow]

Not sure why you are mixing up the fact that I said FSD is con used by Tesla to try and pad sales numbers. Sell something for $10K that does next to nothing it advertises.

Not how it works. That money goes into deferred revenue and is not counted towards sales revenue. Only the portion already delivered (or part of available features) can be counted as sales.

 

[stopcrazypp]

FSD is a con. I absolutely stand by that.

The software doesn’t do half of what is promised today. Let alone what was promised when they originally started selling it. Once again, all I need to back that up is the take rate and a growing number of angry early adopters.

Not following this logic. The take rate of the red color option is likely as low, if not lower, and people will hardly consider that a con.

 

[EVNow]

FSD is a con. I absolutely stand by that.​

You say something is a con if the person who promises to use the money for one thing, uses it for something else. Obviously they are not doing that.

Do you mean they are misrepresenting its capabilities ?

Full Self-Driving Hardware
Every new Model 3 comes standard with advanced hardware capable of providing Autopilot features today, and full self-driving capabilities in the future—through software updates designed to improve functionality over time.

The Future of Autopilot
All Tesla vehicles have the hardware needed in the future for full self-driving in almost all circumstances, at a safety level we believe will be at least twice as good as the average human driver.

Autopilot

Traffic-Aware Cruise Control: Matches the speed of your car to that of the surrounding traffic​

Autosteer: Assists in steering within a clearly marked lane, and uses traffic-aware cruise control​

Full Self-Driving Capability

Navigate on Autopilot (Beta): Actively guides your car from a highway’s on-ramp to off-ramp, including suggesting lane changes, navigating interchanges, automatically engaging the turn signal and taking the correct exit​

Auto Lane Change: Assists in moving to an adjacent lane on the highway when Autosteer is engaged​

Autopark: Helps automatically parallel or perpendicular park your car, with a single touch​

Summon: Moves your car in and out of a tight space using the mobile app or key​

Smart Summon: Your car will navigate more complex environments and parking spaces, maneuvering around objects as necessary to come find you in a parking lot.​

Traffic and Stop Sign Control (Beta): Identifies stop signs and traffic lights and automatically slows your car to a stop on approach, with your active supervision​

Upcoming:​

Autosteer on city streets​

 

[Dutchy Ron]

Autonomous vehicles get 'X-ray' vision to detect hidden obstacles

The clever 'X-ray' technology is now being commercialised following trials on public roads in Sydney, Australia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

New technology is giving autonomous vehicles 'X-ray' vision to help them track pedestrians, cyclists and other vehicles that may be obscured.

 

[JHCCAZ]

Autonomous vehicles get 'X-ray' vision to detect hidden obstacles

The clever 'X-ray' technology is now being commercialised following trials on public roads in Sydney, Australia.

www.dailymail.co.uk

New technology is giving autonomous vehicles 'X-ray' vision to help them track pedestrians, cyclists and other vehicles that may be obscured.

I've been very enthusiastic about this kind of V2X technology. But when I've posted about it here it's been met with skepticism and even derision. Insecure, hackable, dystopian, Dead on Arrival, abandoned concept, etc. I've tried to understand these arguments but I find them to be inconsistent and unimaginative.

To me, one of the greatest aspects of it is that it doesn't need to be deployed all at once as a very expensive and possibly flawed/unproven infrastructure project. It's very amenable to gradual Improvement of the V2X network, with an increasing density of cars and fixed beacons and cameras that can provide ever-improving perception and look-ahead for smart vehicles ( lboth human-driven and computer-driven).

However, what makes a little more sense to me over a "roadside unit" would be to put all this stuff into existing traffic lights and street lights. Purpose-built stand-alone units would have their place, but I think would be a second choice compared to a traffic light, streetlight or overhead sign that commands a central birds-eye view of its area. I also agree with the statements in the video that every equipped car becomes a mobile lookout.

 

[glide]

You say something is a con if the person who promises to use the money for one thing, uses it for something else. Obviously they are not doing that.

Do you mean they are misrepresenting its capabilities ?

That is not the definition of “con” but now we’re just talking semantics, aren’t we?

Tesla sells an FSD package with promises of features and capabilities that never materialize. Additionally, they make false claims about what their existing and historic hardware can support.

 

[EVNow]

Tesla sells an FSD package with promises of features and capabilities that never materialize.

Thats not a con. Thats the nature of R&D.

Additionally, they make false claims about what their existing and historic hardware can support.

You are welcome to prove that. Esp. given, Tesla has upgraded any hardware for free when they found out it won't support their new software revision.

ps : May be you can also sue Gates who (as mythology goes) said no more than 500k RAM would ever be required or the IBM CEO who claimed the world needs no more than 4 computers

 

[powertoold]

“Only criticism, and it’s a fair one, [is that] sometimes I’m not on time,” Musk said. “But I get it done, and the Tesla team gets it done.”

 

[Terminator857]

“Only criticism, and it’s a fair one, [is that] sometimes I’m not on time,” Musk said. “But I get it done, and the Tesla team gets it done.”

If you took people's money and didn't meet time expectations (automatic driving in city by 2019) then you should give back the money, since you failed to meet the deal.

 

[EVNow]

If you took people's money and didn't meet time expectations (automatic driving in city by 2019) then you should give back the money, since you failed to meet the deal.

Even if it means a massive short attack that could have actually sunk the company ?

ps : Afterall, I've never heard of anyone who give the money back because they didn't meet some timeline - they say its delayed. Because giving money back is equivalent to giving up. Yes, it would make sense for FSD money to be refundable.

 

[Terminator857]

Even if it means a massive short attack that could have actually sunk the company ?

Seems you live in a different world than I. Tesla has billions in the bank. Sunk the company, no way. Massive short attack? Sounds like something from a movie.
If Tesla did the right thing it would prop the company up, not down. Suspect few would opt for the refund. Most would prefer the option to transfer FSD to next vehicle. Thanks for the question.

 

[EVNow]

Seems you live in a different world than I. Tesla has billions in the bank. Sunk the company, no way. Massive short attack? Sounds like something from a movie.

I'm talking about couple of years ago ..... afterall the principle should apply whether it is 2017 or 2021.

 

[asterothe]

Thats not a con. Thats the nature of R&D.


You are welcome to prove that. Esp. given, Tesla has upgraded any hardware for free when they found out it won't support their new software revision.

ps : May be you can also sue Gates who (as mythology goes) said no more than 500k RAM would ever be required or the IBM CEO who claimed the world needs no more than 4 computers

These are not comparable. They stated their opinions, did not sell a product saying 500kb would be able to accomplish X and then it turned out to be not.

 

[EVNow]

They stated their opinions, did not sell a product saying 500kb would be able to accomplish X and then it turned out to be not.

Well, if you follow some of the logic used here - people bought computers with 500KB RAM because Gates "said" that is all one ever needs only to later find out that was inadequate. It wasn't a question of opinion - Gates was talking about what hardware is needed to run his company's products.

ps : Who is going to sue Trump for claiming Mexico would pay for the wall while collecting your donations ? Or for that matter ALL the politicians for promising various things that never get delivered once they get elected, all the while asking for donations ?

pps : My last post on the subject in this thread. It has gone OOT.

 

[powertoold]

No doubt some people will use Elon's words against him, as is possible with any other human being who's spoken on the record about any topic.

There's no use arguing about it because for AV progress, only the results matter, and as of right now, no one seems close to achieving a general-use robotaxi. What Elon was confident or not about a 5-10k optional add-on isn't that big a deal, imo. 5-10k is a small price as it relates to general-use robotaxis, even in relation to other ADAS systems.

 

[diplomat33]

I have not listened to the podcast yet but I thought the headline was interesting. In the podcast, the CEO of Cruise predicts Cruise will have 1M self-driving cars on public roads by 2030.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455549633489522693

 

[Terminator857]

.... imo. 5-10k is a small price as it relates to general-use robotaxis, even in relation to other ADAS systems.

First World Problems

"First World Problems" are frustrations and complaints that are only experienced by privileged individuals in wealthy countries. It is typically used as a tongue-in-cheek comedic device to make light of trivial inconveniences.

knowyourmeme.com

 

[EVNow]

I have not listened to the podcast yet but I thought the headline was interesting. In the podcast, the CEO of Cruise predicts Cruise will have 1M self-driving cars on public roads by 2030.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1455549633489522693

Yes - as I said - 10 year is the new 5 year

ps : While ambitious, I would not be totally surprised if they do have a million cars on the road in service by 2030. This is about the same number of drivers that are on Uber now in US. I can see Waymo, Cruise & Tesla all with a million cars in service by 2030.

How Many Uber Drivers Are There in 2023? | Ridester.com

How many Uber drivers are there in 2023? Read more here about Uber statistics and driver churn in the gig economy.

www.ridester.com

 

[EVNow]

Something interesting to look out for.

These neural networks know what they’re doing

MIT researchers have demonstrated that a special class of deep learning neural networks is able to learn the true cause-and-effect structure of a navigation task during training.

news.mit.edu

Researchers at MIT have now shown that a certain type of neural network is able to learn the true cause-and-effect structure of the navigation task it is being trained to perform. Because these networks can understand the task directly from visual data, they should be more effective than other neural networks when navigating in a complex environment, like a location with dense trees or rapidly changing weather conditions.

Neural networks are a method for doing machine learning in which the computer learns to complete a task through trial-and-error by analyzing many training examples. And “liquid” neural networks change their underlying equations to continuously adapt to new inputs.

The new research draws on previous work in which Hasani and others showed how a brain-inspired type of deep learning system called a Neural Circuit Policy (NCP), built by liquid neural network cells, is able to autonomously control a self-driving vehicle, with a network of only 19 control neurons.

“Once the system learns what it is actually supposed to do, it can perform well in novel scenarios and environmental conditions it has never experienced. This is a big challenge of current machine learning systems that are not causal. We believe these results are very exciting, as they show how causality can emerge from the choice of a neural network,” he says.

 

[eli_]

OpenPilot can make left turns using their end-to-end model, no middle layer "find the lane lines" models like Tesla.