Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

Not sure why this would be confusing to anyone. MULTIPLE elements are needed for a successful business here- not just "our tech works"

It is not confusing. Yes, there are multiple elements. You need both the tech and the production capability. My point is that there are plenty of car factories that can build robotaxis for Waymo at volume and at a profit. So, I don't really see the problem. Once Waymo "solves" the tech, they can put in an order for like 100,000 robotaxis if they want, and deploy them at profit.

 

[Knightshade]

It is not confusing. Yes, there are multiple elements. You need both the tech and the production capability. My point is that there are plenty of car factories that can build robotaxis for Waymo at volume and at a profit.

Which ones, specifically?

Who else is making profitable EVs, in volume, and associated with any of the RT companies you've mentioned?

So, I don't really see the problem.

Clearly

Once Waymo "solves" the tech, they can put in an order for like 100,000 robotaxis if they want, and deploy them at profit.

this sounds just like "Once the legacy companies want to start making EVs they just magically can make tons of them profitably" that FUDsters have been throwing at Tesla for 10 years, and still hasn't' turned out to be true.

 

[diplomat33]

Which ones, specifically?

GM, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai and others all have factories capable of mass producing EVs.

And by the way, Waymo has a large manufacturing plant in Detroit that can retrofit robotaxis in volume:

Detroit plant now producing self-driving vehicles with Waymo

The milestone allows the Alphabet Inc. subsidiary to put its automated "driver" into vehicles at mass scale

www.detroitnews.com

 

[Knightshade]

GM, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai and others all have factories capable of mass producing EVs.

No, they don't.

GM produced 26 EVs Q4 2021.

They produced less than 500 in Q1 2022.

Nissan only has one EV model today, and it's ancient and also made in relatively small numbers.

Toyota is producing zero BEVs today and is hilariously far behind nearly everyone on EVs.

Hyundai is only company on your list making a remotely decent number of BEVs currently... and it's still a pretty tiny number overall and they've repeatedly said they need to spend billions of dollars to fix that

And by the way, Waymo has a large manufacturing plant in Detroit that can retrofit robotaxis in volume:

Detroit plant now producing self-driving vehicles with Waymo

The milestone allows the Alphabet Inc. subsidiary to put its automated "driver" into vehicles at mass scale

www.detroitnews.com

Nope.

They leased a TINY plant. The lease was in 2019 and for 3 years.

How's it going since then? Here's a much more recent story:

Exclusive: Watching Waymo build autonomous Freightliner Cascadias

In a century-old manufacturing complex where General Motors once built gears and axles, Waymo manufactures autonomous cars and trucks.

www.freightwaves.com

They've only got 80,000 sq feet (with an option to go up to 200k). That is teeny tiny for a car manufacturing plant.

For contrast, the Orion GM plant, where GM has never been able to make significantly more EVs in a year than Tesla makes in a week is 4.3 million sq feet


Because, of course Waymos rental is not a vehicle manufacturing plant and could not be retrofitted to make RTs in volume

It's TINY. And not "manufacturing" anything. It's just slapping Waymo sensors and computers on to already built elsewhere cars and trucks.

In touring the facility they describe "a practically spotless floor devoid of typical signs of volume manufacturing" with a whole FOUR VEHICLES being worked on.



Even Waymo admits that-- why don't you?

We’re not interested in spending a lot of financial capital on facilities and assembly lines and things of that nature

[/B]

 

[diplomat33]

No, they don't.

GM produced 26 EVs Q4 2021.

They produced less than 500 in Q1 2022.

Nissan only has one EV model today, and it's ancient and also made in relatively small numbers.

Toyota is producing zero BEVs today and is hilariously far behind nearly everyone on EVs.

Hyundai is only company on your list making a remotely decent number of BEVs currently... and it's still a pretty tiny number overall and they've repeatedly said they need to spend billions of dollars to fix that

I am looking at capacity. They are capable of producing a lot more EVs than that.

Nope.

They leased a TINY plant. The lease was in 2019 and for 3 years.

How's it going since then? Here's a much more recent story:

Exclusive: Watching Waymo build autonomous Freightliner Cascadias

In a century-old manufacturing complex where General Motors once built gears and axles, Waymo manufactures autonomous cars and trucks.

www.freightwaves.com

They've only got 80,000 sq feet (with an option to go up to 200k). That is teeny tiny for a car manufacturing plant.

Because, of course it's not a vehicle manufacturing plant and could not be retrofitted to make RTs in volume

It's TINY. And not "manufacturing" anything. It's just slapping Waymo sensors and computers on to already built elsewhere cars and trucks.

In touring the facility they describe "a practically spotless floor devoid of typical signs of volume manufacturing" with a whole FOUR VEHICLES being worked on.


Even Waymo admits that-- why don't you?

[/B]

My point still stands that once Waymo is ready, then can put a big order to Jaguar for more I-Paces and retrofit them and deploy them.

And like you said, you need both the tech and the production. Mass producing robotaxis that you can't deploy is not going to work. I don't deny that Tesla GT can mass produce a lot of Tesla robotaxis. But Tesla does not the the FSD tech to deploy a safe and reliable driverless ride-hailing network.

 

[Knightshade]

I am looking at capacity. They are capable of producing a lot more EVs than that.

Then why haven't they?

They've spent years leading the industry by press release- not so much by actually making EVs.

Again in their best year ever making EVs (which was 2017 BTW) they made about as many all years as Tesla makes in one week.

My point still stands that once Waymo is ready, then can put a big order to Jaguar for more I-Paces and retrofit them and deploy them.

Except Jaguar can't build very many of them.

In fact, I guess you weren't aware, Jaguar doesn't build any of them,

Their EV manufacturing is outsourced.

So now Waymo is paying a middle man of a middle man to get cars. Which still can't be made in very high volumes anyway.

2018: 6,893
2019: 17,355
2020: 16,457
2021: 9,970

That's annual sales of the ipace to this point.

This isn't a vehicle anybody is geared up to make extra tens of thousands of.


And of course giving Jaguar a profit per vehicle, AND Magna (who actually builds the cars) a profit, and then paying more to retrofit your custom HW onto it essentially by hand (which is what they do today)- will be MUCH more expensive than just building your own RT with everything designed in from the start.[/B][/B]

 

[diplomat33]

Then why haven't they?

They've spent years leading the industry by press release- not so much by actually making EVs.

Again in their best year ever making EVs (which was 2017 BTW) they made about as many all years as Tesla makes in one week.

The legacy automakers have certainly been very bad about scaling, marketing and selling EVs. But that is a discussion for another thread.

Except Jaguar can't build very many of them.

In fact, I guess you weren't aware, Jaguar doesn't build any of them,

Their EV manufacturing is outsourced.

So now Waymo is paying a middle man of a middle man to get cars. Which still can't be made in very high volumes anyway.

2018: 6,893
2019: 17,355
2020: 16,457
2021: 9,970

That's annual sales of the ipace to this point.

This isn't a vehicle anybody is geared up to make extra tens of thousands of.


And of course giving Jaguar a profit per vehicle, AND Magna (who actually builds the cars) a profit, and then paying more to retrofit your custom HW onto it essentially by hand (which is what they do today)- will be MUCH more expensive than just building your own RT with everything designed in from the start.[/B][/B]

Fine. But Waymo is also designing a robotaxi with Zeekr which will probably become the main Waymo robotaxi at scale at some point. You think Waymo has not thought about how they will produce the vehicle? You think Waymo signed a deal with Geely and did not ask Geely, "hey, so do you have any good factories where you can mass produce these robotaxis?" The same goes for Cruise. You think Cruise designed, developed and tested the Origin with no plan for production? Of course not. We know Cruise has a GM plant that is producing the Origin.

No offense but this notion that Tesla fans have that Waymo, Cruise and others are all a bunch of idiots just wasting billions testing "geohacked" robotaxis in "tiny" areas, with no business model, no plan, is just silly.

 

[Knightshade]

No offense but this notion that Tesla fans have that Waymo, Cruise and others are all a bunch of idiots just wasting billions testing "geohacked" robotaxis in "tiny" areas, with no business model, no plan, is just silly.

You seem very very confused here.

YOU are the one who insisted that "Who cares how advanced the manufacturing plant is?"

And I pointed out anybody who wishes to produce RTs at scale, and for significant profit, does. If we pretend everyone will get their tech to work, then the company that can make cars faster, with more profit per car, is more likely to be successful. So anyone working on this issue should care how advanced the manufacturing plant is.



You then went off into the weeds about largely inaccurate info about the current capabilities of legacy (and Waymos "factory") to defend your claim.

And now appear to have retreated to "that's for another thread, and I'm sure they're smart enough to have thought of this"


Do you think the legacy companies themselves didn't "think of" what to do about EVs? And yet here they are all embarrassing failures after years of announcing "plans" that never worked out.


I'm not saying it's impossible one or more of them will make it work. And I'm not saying this is the only aspect that matters to a successful RT business.


I'm saying there's a reason to "care how advanced the manufacturing plant is"

Something you initially dismissed as irrelevant, but it's, very obviously, not.

 

[diplomat33]

I'm saying there's a reason to "care how advanced the manufacturing plant is"

Something you initially dismissed as irrelevant, but it's, very obviously, not.

I am not dismissing it. But the reason I say "who cares how advanced the manufacturing plant is" is because mass producing robotaxis and deploying safe robotaxis in a ride-hailing network are two different things. Tesla having advanced manufacturing does not mean they can deploy safe robotaxis in large ride-hailing networks, it just means they can produce a lot of robotaxis.

 

[Knightshade]

I am not dismissing it.

I'm not sure how to get that from "who cares about it" which sounds 1000% like you are dismissing it.

But the reason I say "who cares how advanced the manufacturing plant is" is because mass producing robotaxis and deploying safe robotaxis in a ride-hailing network are two different things.

I agree they're different.

But they're both needed if you want to profitable mass produce robotaxis.

Hence a lot of people might care about an advanced manufacturing plant.


Let's say EVERYBODY gets working RT tech (since we agree that's ONE of the necessary things to deploying them- so anybody who lacks that isn't in the discussion to move on to step 2)


Step 2 is now making a ton of actual RTs and putting them on the roads.

A company with their own advanced manufacturing plant will be able to do that in more volume, and for far less cost, than a company without one.

So if company W needs to pay a 3rd party (Jaguar) who themselves must pay a 3rd party (Magna), to built them an RT-- then ship it someplace else and have it retrofitting by hand with sensors and computers, and THEN go put it on the road.

But company T can do all of that themselves, first party, integrated into the vehicle manufacturing process, and THEN go put it on the road.

Company T is far more likely to scale at speed, and profitably.


So who cares? Certainly everyone who gets to step 2 at the very least.

 

[EVNow]

My point still stands that once Waymo is ready, then can put a big order to Jaguar for more I-Paces and retrofit them and deploy them.

I agree - if and when Waymo is ready - if Jaguar is still around - then Waymo can place a big order (like a few hundred) and deploy them to rest of San Francisco. Sometime around 2030

GM, Toyota, Nissan, Hyundai and others all have factories capable of mass producing EVs.

Thats like saying every human is capable of winning the Nobel Prize for physics.

2021: 9,970

You are way overestimating Waymo's needs. They only need a tenth of that number, if that, over the next decade.

 

[Daniel in SD]

I agree - if and when Waymo is ready - if Jaguar is still around - then Waymo can place a big order (like a few hundred) and deploy them to rest of San Francisco. Sometime around 2030

So it's sounds like you and @Knightshade are betting on Cruise who actually do have the manufacturing capacity?
And robotaxis are much lower fire risk than Bolts since they won't be parked in residential garages.
My prediction is that Waymo will eventually partner with a car manufacturer to make a dedicated robotaxi or go out of business. Or maybe their trucking business will be successful...

 

[drtimhill]

I am looking at capacity. They are capable of producing a lot more EVs than that.



My point still stands that once Waymo is ready, then can put a big order to Jaguar for more I-Paces and retrofit them and deploy them.

And like you said, you need both the tech and the production. Mass producing robotaxis that you can't deploy is not going to work. I don't deny that Tesla GT can mass produce a lot of Tesla robotaxis. But Tesla does not the the FSD tech to deploy a safe and reliable driverless ride-hailing network.

But I think K’s point (can I call him that???) is that there isnt just some dial any of these makers can turn and suddenly turn out vast numbers of BEVs .. for a start, there is a huge battery availability problem (why do you think Tesla have their own battery facilities?). Sure, anyone with deep enough pockets is capable of building EVs at scale .. eventually. But that takes years of infrastructure build-out, logistics, contracts and 3rd party OEM ramp-up.

Of course, you could make robotaxis with ICE cars, but I suppose if you tried hard enough you could make a robotaxi using a horse.

 

[Knightshade]

So it's sounds like you and @Knightshade are betting on Cruise who actually do have the manufacturing capacity?

AFAIK the only EVs being made at the plant Cruise intends to use right now is the EV hummer... which has scaled production up to *checks notes* slightly over one vehicle per day by the end of Q1 2022.

Hopefully they can do a little better on the Origin.... which last I heard (granted this was ~a year ago) they hoped to start making in 2023.


On the up side, GM has more motivation to scale those, since they wouldn't be directly replacing sales of their more profitable ICE vehicles nor would they have to content with legacy dealerships that don't want to sell EVs.

 

[EVNow]

But I think K’s point (can I call him that???) is that there isnt just some dial any of these makers can turn and suddenly turn out vast numbers of BEVs .. for a start, there is a huge battery availability problem (why do you think Tesla have their own battery facilities?). Sure, anyone with deep enough pockets is capable of building EVs at scale .. eventually. But that takes years of infrastructure build-out, logistics, contracts and 3rd party OEM ramp-up.

Of course, you could make robotaxis with ICE cars, but I suppose if you tried hard enough you could make a robotaxi using a horse.

I think most people who don't follow TSLA closely don't understand the basics of EV manufacturing.

It is also interesting that @diplomat33 doesn't mention one company probably capable of producing EVs in large volumes (atleast in near future) - VW.

 

[Daniel in SD]

AFAIK the only EVs being made at the plant Cruise intends to use right now is the EV hummer... which has scaled production up to *checks notes* slightly over one vehicle per day by the end of Q1 2022.

Hopefully they can do a little better on the Origin.... which last I heard (granted this was ~a year ago) they hoped to start making in 2023.


On the up side, GM has more motivation to scale those, since they wouldn't be directly replacing sales of their more profitable ICE vehicles nor would they have to content with legacy dealerships that don't want to sell EVs.

If you look at quarter over quarter production growth they far exceed Tesla.
GM was able to produce 25k Bolt EVs per year. I'd like to see any robotaxi company get to the point where production capacity is an issue.

 

[EVNow]

So it's sounds like you and @Knightshade are betting on Cruise who actually do have the manufacturing capacity?

Yes. GM can make dozens of EVs a month

 

[Daniel in SD]

I think most people who don't follow TSLA closely don't understand the basics of EV manufacturing.

It is also interesting that @diplomat33 doesn't mention one company probably capable of producing EVs in large volumes (atleast in near future) - VW.

Robotaxis don't even have to be EVs so I'm not sure why it's relevant.

 

[Knightshade]

If you look at quarter over quarter production growth they far exceed Tesla.
GM was able to produce 25k Bolt EVs per year. I'd like to see any robotaxi company get to the point where production capacity is an issue.

AFAIK the absolute peak for the bolt, 2017, was just over 23k units, and have been lower (some years ~20% lower) ever since.

There's something like 18 million taxis in the world. Not counting the many more uber/lyft folks. 20ish/k a year ain't gonna cut it.

Robotaxis don't even have to be EVs so I'm not sure why it's relevant.

because cost per mile to operate, and downtime due to maintenance and repair, is much lower.

Making a big fleet of RTs that aren't EVs is economically nonsensical at this point.

 

[EVNow]

If you look at quarter over quarter production growth they far exceed Tesla.
GM was able to produce 25k Bolt EVs per year. I'd like to see any robotaxi company get to the point where production capacity is an issue.

GM's "Tesla killer" volume is actually lower than Nissan Leaf volume from a few years back.

Anyway, here are the total EV volumes in 2021 for top manufacturers.