Autonomous Car Progress

[diplomat33]

Driverless night ride in Cruise:

0:00 Start
0:10 Indecisive pickup location
0:59 Pull out
3:14 Giving up right of way at stop sign
4:15 Wide turn crossing into adjacent lane
5:10 Passing a bus
7:05 Using the turn lane to continue straight
9:32 Slowing for unknown
10:47 Nudge for unknown
11:25 Slowing for unknown
11:45 Slow to proceed with yellow light
12:02 Harsh brake and swerve for unknown
12:15 Pull over

The pick up was terrible. The Cruise AV tried to drive away from the customer before they got in. WTF?! The Cruise AV also had some unexpected slow downs which is weird.

 

[Bladerskb]

Waymo in Dense Fog

 

[powertoold]

The pick up was terrible. The Cruise AV tried to drive away from the customer before they got in. WTF?! The Cruise AV also had some unexpected slow downs which is weird.

I wonder how Cruise will survive 2023 by spending $2b a year.

 

[diplomat33]

I wonder how Cruise will survive 2023 by spending $2b a year.

We shall see. So far, it seems GM is willing to subsidize them. And Vogt claims they are on track to hit $1 billion in revenue by 2025 and $50 billion by 2030. These revenue predictions seem to be based on Cruise scaling the Origin. GM seems to be willing to eat the losses now in order for Cruise to hit big revenue later. Personally, I think Vogt's revenue predictions are unrealistic.

 

[powertoold]

Personally, I think Vogt's revenue predictions are unrealistic.

Revenue means nothing if your net income is negative $bs.

 

[diplomat33]

Revenue means nothing if your net income is negative $bs.

Well, certainly profit is more important than gross revenue. If you watched the GM presentation awhile back, they crunch the numbers and argue that the Origin will bring costs down enough to make rides profitable.

 

[EVNow]

Well, certainly profit is more important than gross revenue. If you watched the GM presentation awhile back, they crunch the numbers and argue that the Origin will bring costs down enough to make rides profitable.

I think the focus should be on Cruise/Waymo vs Uber/Lyft. Both in terms of experience and cost.

If they are all available to me I’d probably choose Uber over either of them when going to catch a flight.

After the initial fascination wears off I think robotaxis need to be much cheaper to compete with Uber, except for niche applications like lonely women traveling at night.

 

[diplomat33]

I think the focus should be on Cruise/Waymo vs Uber/Lyft. Both in terms of experience and cost.

If they are all available to me I’d probably choose Uber over either of them when going to catch a flight.

After the initial fascination wears off I think robotaxis need to be much cheaper to compete with Uber, except for niche applications like lonely women traveling at night.

Yes, that is why the robotaxi business model is so difficult. It's more than just "solving FSD". You basically need to train a robot car not just to drive from A to B without human intervention but also be a smooth ride, faster, cheaper and more reliable than an Uber driver, all while still being safe, following road rules and not stalling or getting stuck.

 

[EVNow]

Yes, that is why the robotaxi business model is so difficult. It's more than just "solving FSD". You basically need to train a robot car not just to drive from A to B without human intervention but also be a smooth ride, faster, cheaper and more reliable than an Uber driver, all while still being safe, following road rules and not stalling or getting stuck.

WAYMOQ.

 

[hgmichna]

Waymo in Dense Fog

Where's the fog?

 

[Mullermn]

Where's the fog?

lol. I took a screenshot from the exact moment that the woman has just finished saying ‘So, you can’t see anything because of the dense fog’:

But Tesla’s the only company with the ‘shill’ influencers, right?

 

[diplomat33]

Where's the fog?

lol. I took a screenshot from the exact moment that the woman has just finished saying ‘So, you can’t see anything because of the dense fog’:
View attachment 933447

Here is the moment the Waymo drives into the fog. You can clearly see the fog up ahead.

Source:

 

[Bladerskb]

Where's the fog?

Starts at 9:00

 

[diplomat33]

Tech group urges Senator Schumer to speed up deployment of AVs to prevent the US from falling behind China:

The Chamber of Progress is urging Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to speed up the deployment of self-driving vehicles in his proposed framework to regulate artificial intelligence.

The tech lobbying group, which is backed by tech giants and self-driving car companies, warned Schumer on Monday that the lack of federal standards for autonomous vehicles will undermine the nation’s competitiveness.

“The United States faces the possibility of falling behind China in AI-powered autonomous vehicles unless significant steps are taken to support this sector, create thousands of advanced automotive jobs in the United States, and ensure the U.S.’s leadership in the field,” Chamber of Progress CEO Adam Kovacevich wrote in a letter to Schumer.

The group said that Congress should pass legislation to establish a federal framework for self-driving vehicles and lift the cap on the number of exemptions companies can receive to deploy self-driving vehicles.

The proposed overhauls would allow companies to test thousands more self-driving cars and trucks on public roads. While that would boost development of the technology, critics including prominent Democrats have raised concerns about the safety of autonomous vehicles.

Tech group urges Schumer to greenlight self-driving cars in AI bill

The Chamber of Progress is urging Senate Majority Leader Charles Schumer (D-N.Y.) to speed up the deployment of self-driving vehicles in his proposed framework to regulate artificial intelligence. …

thehill.com

 

[diplomat33]

I definitely believe that in 20 years, the notion of manual driving will seem antiquated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652578715379937280

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

I definitely believe that in 20 years, the notion of manual driving will seem antiquated.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1652578715379937280

Shows awful clip. (From someone who works at Cruise, no less!!!)

Makes weird claim.

Lol. Social media is such a disaster.

It is mysterious to me why anyone thinks this when there is very little evidence of any sort of competent driving to date.

Come on people, let’s not be so sanguine. This isn’t that complicated.

20 years is a very short time. There is remarkably little time for significant advancement.

 

[diplomat33]

Shows awful clip.

Makes weird claim.

Lol. Social media is such a disaster.

How is it an awful clip? The Cruise smoothly maneuvers around a parked vehicle and then proceeds.

And why is it a weird claim? Considering that we have the tech for driverless cars today, it is not unreasonable to think that in the 20 years, manual driving could become obsolete.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

Considering that we have the tech for driverless cars today, i

No we do not. (We have such a thing for partial driverless which are very carefully monitored at huge expense and it is not clear how it will turn out.)

The Cruise smoothly maneuvers

Nope. Listen to the clip, do not watch.

I do believe at some point cars will drive themselves. I used to think within 5 years from now (5-10 2019). Way way too optimistic.

It’s just such an incredibly difficult problem.

And why is it a weird claim

Illegal? This is extremely unlikely in the United States in the foreseeable future, even in the unlikely event the tech made it possible in the general case.

(That is the specific thing which made me laugh. The idea of very capable partially autonomous vehicles which largely eliminate the need for driving oneself, with some significant compromises, does not seem quite as risible.)

 

[powertoold]

You guys probably haven't taken enough Ubers. Many drive worse than FSD. I was in a Model 3 Uber for a 35 mile trip, and it was nauseating the way he accelerated and slowed down.

 

[AlanSubie4Life]

You guys probably haven't taken enough Ubers. Many drive worse than FSD. I was in a Model 3 Uber for a 35 mile trip, and it was nauseating the way he accelerated and slowed down.

Exactly, no doubt about it. And that dramatically strengthens the argument that driving yourself will not be made illegal in the US anytime in the next two decades.

No one (well…I guess I should say “I never”) ever said autonomous driving would not supplant other transportation modes! Seems very likely it will!