You could with multiple companies using it. With hundreds and possibly thousands of AVs using it to charge every day. Now to charge them autonomously and setup a billing program might be more difficult
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Autonomous Car Progress
- Thread starter stopcrazypp
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- Autonomous Vehicles
Daniel in SD
(supervised)
There are not going to be very many companies operating robotaxis in a given market and they're all going to run their own facilities. To make any money you'll need thousands of vehicles and therefore can have your own parking garages. You could even have someone walk around and inspect the vehicles, clean the interiors, and plug them in. This seems like the simplest part of the business. Because the vehicles are self-driving you can also pack way more of them in a garage than human driven vehicles.
Presumably privately owned Tesla robotaxis will just return to the owner's house to be charge and cleaned.
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
It's not "logic" it's "literally how accounting works"
I didn't say anything at all about if it's bad or good.
I said the $ coming to them for undelivered features is not revenue
Because it factually is not until they deliver the product.
Tesla has like 17 billion in cash, and billions more in free cash flow each quarter.
The numbers for FSD either way are a rounding error at this point.
Which further puts in context how big a lie "OMG HE IS PUMPING FSD FOR REVENUE" is as a nonsensical counter-factual claim.
What mistruths has he told, specifically, about present or past features?
Auto park was upgraded just a few months ago to finally start using vision instead of ultrasonics.... which would be the first major step toward that goal.
So- not done yet, but obvious progress has been made.
Were you not aware of that?
You have yet to explain what benefit Tesla would get from adding liabilities to its books if they don't intend to deliver on them and get to recognize them as actual revenue.
Because that's what happens to that money today for the undelivered stuff.
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
Oliver Cameron answered a bunch of questions on Twitter about Cruise's driverless rides and tech.
See thread:
See thread:
diplomat33
Average guy who loves autonomous vehicles
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You are ignorant of how accounting works. 'nuff said.
Suggest reading GAAP accounting 101 before spouting nonsesne.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
Turns out (if I'm reading a report about GM analyst call correctly), Cruise is yet to receive authorization to commercialize their AV operation in SF. What they have done is to remove drivers (apparently something they could do on their own, I guess) - to coincide with GM earnings call where for the first time Cruise head participated. Pure coincidence
BTW, it is interesting that GM and Tesla will make the same amount of money in 2022 - ~ $10B. Good for a company that went bankrupt recently
ps : GM thinks Crruise will bring in $50B in revenue by end of the decade. Will be interesting to see the details of this estimate.
Correct. Not an accountant. But also not blind to the fact of NUMEROUS articles confirming Elon is now known as “the boy who cried autonomous driving” due to his repeated failures to deliver what he has promised. Over. And over.
So you tell me. Can YOU go from nyc to la with no intervention? 4 yrs after he stated it would occur?
No. And you WONT be able to do so. Not this year. Not next year. And not the following.
But customers PAID for that feature.
It’s ok to like Tesla but to also admit elons flaws and not be blind to his untruths
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You would have to be really stupid to confuse Elon's optimism for reality. If you bought FSD without doing your homework, don't blame us.
As I've said multiple times, it is also stupid to confuse optimism for conspiracy.
I bought FSD fully knowing its a nerdy journey and I'm enjoying it. And thanks to $TSLA I don't have to care about a few thousand dollars I spent on FSD.
Then stop writing obvious, blatant "untruths" about revenue.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You are covered in this part "Among Tesla folks, most are disgruntled people who are angry Tesla hasn’t delivered yet. ".
In my opinion, FSD was a fraud Tesla prematurely sold to carry the company over cashflow problems at the time. Getting a refund has turned out to be very laborious process. Tesla has changed their marketing language since I purchased. For a new FSD purchase, feature might just be a very bad purchase instead of being a fraud. I would still highly recommend against the purchase due to Tesla track record for not delivering on their promises.
I’m pretty sure Tesla has recognized some of the deferred revenue from FSD by claiming it’s n percent complete. I don’t know if it was a significant amount or not thou.
From the intertubes:
Random article
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Knightshade
Well-Known Member
Well, it ends up a bit more complex... (and as your source notes- those are all guesses as to the actual amounts)
So for current (and since March 2019) FSD... it IS partially complete.
FSD offers 7 specific features upon purchase. 6 of them you get the day you buy it.
Tesla is free to recognize the revenue for delivered things.
The 7th is city streets, currently in narrow beta. Tesla can not recognize that revenue, and it sits on the books as a liability until it is delivered.
For buyers before march 2019, the promised deliverable is significantly greater, and almost entirely still undelivered (those buyers have received nothing originally promised them for their money other than the stop light and stop sign recognition feature). So all THAT money remains a liability on the books, not revenue, until Tesla delivers on it.
The current FSD package offers everything EAP did and EAP is not deferred revenue. That package used to be $5k ($7k as add-on). You can argue if it was worth that money or if it really works that well, but there is nothing undelivered in that package, every feature is there now. I imagine Tesla can recognize the EAP part (I guess that's where they guess the 50% in that article), but I'm not sure if there is any explicit line in their financial report that lists it out. Keep in mind Tesla still sells EAP in other jurisdictions (just not in the US).
https://www.currentautomotive.com/tesla-changes-autopilot-feature-availability/
If you bought after Tesla changed their order page to remove references suggesting L4 functionality, if they release "City Streets," Tesla may be able to count all of FSD revenue from that group. However, for those that bought FSD as standalone (typically for $3k) while they had more promises on the order page, Tesla still owes those people more than just "City Streets".
That's not going to take into consideration why people buy what they do.
The entire approach that Tesla is taking to FSD is really marketing,
He's convinced people that you need a Tesla versus some other brand because the Tesla will increase in value.
The old money pales in comparison to the new money coming in. The only thing left of the $8K (EAP+FSD) that I gave Tesla that's left to being recognized is probably $1K to $2K.
Even people who don't get FSD are likely buying a Tesla because that's what they've been hearing about. Even trivial things like the FSD Beta rolling stop recall generates a ton of interest in the media.
Tesla at this point is a money making machine.
Elon sure knows how to milk a cow.
I'm not sure I buy that any significant amount of people were convinced by this to buy a Tesla (other than the current crazy used car market, which may make a Tesla increase in value), especially after the bump to $8k+. The gist I get from all FSD stuff is people who aren't buying it or a Tesla think it's cool, but by the time it comes to actually spend the money, I haven't seen people actually buying thinking they would make money on the FSD feature. You can argue there might be some of that when Tesla mentioned the "Tesla Network" back in 2016, but they haven't mentioned that in years (and it's not in the order page at all anymore).
I think the most people driven into a frenzy remains the investment market.
I don't think my post makes it very clear, but I believe the Marketing impact of FSD is a sizable contributor to sales.
Far more revenue than any of us that bought FSD back when it was EAP/FSD.
A lot of this has to do with how people make decisions. We often make an unconscious emotional based decision, and then we come up with logical justifications to back up what we're feeling.
People also buy things they constantly hear about. So the more Tesla is in the news the more they're likely to buy a Tesla.
FSD and related technologies generates so much press that its hard to separate it out from other more valid reasons for buying a Tesla.
It's also impacted not just my buying decision, but also my hold position. I won't buy a competitors product until I give FSD Beta more time to mature so its effectively frozen out competitors from getting my money.
I've also noticed on various forums someone will express interest in some competitor product and Tesla people will say "But, it won't be capable of X" where X isn't even something Tesla can do today. The X is some form of autonomous driving.
In a lot of ways the FSD promise gives them an unfair competitive advantage. It's impossible for anyone else to compete against what's essentially a fantasy. A fantasy that you can still subscribe to even if you don't buy it. So there isn't really a buy in cost to FSD aside from the car itself.
EVNow
Well-Known Member
You can do all the speculating you want - but going “viral” is a strange process a million marketers are trying to crack. FSD, just like landing rockets back or creating the first successful auto company in the US in 80 years …. are all part of the attraction.
You can’t do something audacious if you think it won’t work. Naysayers are dime-a-dozen … it’s so much easier than actually accomplishing something ground breaking.
Doggydogworld
Active Member
"Delivered features" is about as squishy as it gets. A couple years ago Zack (or maybe Deepak) said they recognized roughly half immediately. Should be higher now. They've not delivered even a small fraction of the Muskclaim product, but arguably 75% of the "fine print" product.
"That money" is in cash and equivalents (at least until Tesla spends it). There is an offsetting liability for the unrecognized fraction.
This being California, you need something like 2,356 permits to operate a Robotaxi service. Cruise has 2,355 of them. They still need a CPUC permit to charge for rides.
Cruise removed drivers a while back. They apparently started giving rides to non-employees in the last week.What they have done is to remove drivers (apparently something they could do on their own, I guess) - to coincide with GM earnings call where for the first time Cruise head participated. Pure coincidence
tsk tsk .. when Elon say such things its "irresponsible and outrageous", when the head of GM does it's a "forward projection that may or may not be realized based on unforeseen market and/or other circumstances".
S4WRXTTCS thank you for this selfreflective and honest post - it helps a bit understanding this thread.
I sometimes see those "broken promises" popping up on the main investor thread from time to time and then quickly being disregarded as not being material for the financial future, and I am thankful for that - as you say, you missed the biggest performing stock of the last few years because you left after funding-secure-gate - I'm not blaming you, I just read the investor thread religiously, and it's so tightly moderated that it kept me invested, which I am forever thankful for.
But back to your points - Apple has a lot of broken promises itself and being 100% into the Apple ecosystem, like I am, can be frustrating at times - but whenever I turn towards Android/Windows etc.. I realize I am on the right ecosystem for me - but yeah - lot's of stupid stuff happening at Apple all the time (Butterfly, USB-C/Lightning mess, Bluetooth, Airpower, whatever ...). But Still - Apple stock is a great performing asset and Apple as an ecosystem is still my comfy place - same with Tesla for me, whenever I switch cars I get crazy (even in evs) and want to go back to my prefered ecosystem.
I know it's a non AV example, but Tesla did fast-charging in Germany before there was CCS standard - the EU standard was then driven by Tesla example and with lobbying power against Tesla's existing connector. And to stick with charging in Europe - at the moment every lobby on the planet is trying to influence public charging regulations to get their eggs in - Visa/MC want credit-card readers on all stations, the government wants fixed pricing, there are competing norms for plug&charge ... it's a mess - meantwhile Tesla is just doing the quick route opening up Superchargers via App connect - I love this pragmatic approach - same for FSD.
We should have one - the government who is owning the public infrastructure should have a digital twin of every asset to manage the install base properly - but on the government site, this is a long time down the road. And if you think about private entities doing it, there's a lot of data souvereignty backlash in Europe - remeber Blurmany where Google Streetview needed to pixalate the streetview image of private properties - oh boy.
So yeah - I'd love a digital twin of every real-world asset - it's needed down the road anyway - but it's a long way.
I had a wiper failure during a drive years back - I left the highway, called roadside assistance and they fixed it on the spot.
And if you thing about the cameras - we already have redundancy - there's multiple cameras, the front ones are overlapping.
I was very impressed when AI Driver did his ssensor-blocking test with the early FSD beta versions that sill continued driving no matter which camera was blocked - it was amazing to see FSD still being able to drive with nearly fully blocked sensors. I'm not saying it will ever be safe to drive with 90%+ blocked - but safe enough to leave the current lane and come to a safe spot to get stuff fixed.
But to wrap it up - I still need to find a way to get conviction - or I just stick to the investor thread and life is easy
I should add why I am on this thread now - because Elon is focusing more on FSD - and if the consensus is Tesla won't be able to keep up with the current RoboTaxi companies then this will look really bad for the Musk and Tesla as innovation leaders.
Personally - I am currently looking at used M3s in Germany with FSD, the used market is not valuing FSD much so it's super cheap to have with a used car, and I want to be on the frontline using the BETA when it arrives in Germany, whenever that is - but my current P85+ only has rear-view camera, so no luck there
I sometimes see those "broken promises" popping up on the main investor thread from time to time and then quickly being disregarded as not being material for the financial future, and I am thankful for that - as you say, you missed the biggest performing stock of the last few years because you left after funding-secure-gate - I'm not blaming you, I just read the investor thread religiously, and it's so tightly moderated that it kept me invested, which I am forever thankful for.
But back to your points - Apple has a lot of broken promises itself and being 100% into the Apple ecosystem, like I am, can be frustrating at times - but whenever I turn towards Android/Windows etc.. I realize I am on the right ecosystem for me - but yeah - lot's of stupid stuff happening at Apple all the time (Butterfly, USB-C/Lightning mess, Bluetooth, Airpower, whatever ...). But Still - Apple stock is a great performing asset and Apple as an ecosystem is still my comfy place - same with Tesla for me, whenever I switch cars I get crazy (even in evs) and want to go back to my prefered ecosystem.
Is this the consensous here that government needs to work with private industry on this?
I know it's a non AV example, but Tesla did fast-charging in Germany before there was CCS standard - the EU standard was then driven by Tesla example and with lobbying power against Tesla's existing connector. And to stick with charging in Europe - at the moment every lobby on the planet is trying to influence public charging regulations to get their eggs in - Visa/MC want credit-card readers on all stations, the government wants fixed pricing, there are competing norms for plug&charge ... it's a mess - meantwhile Tesla is just doing the quick route opening up Superchargers via App connect - I love this pragmatic approach - same for FSD.
We should have one - the government who is owning the public infrastructure should have a digital twin of every asset to manage the install base properly - but on the government site, this is a long time down the road. And if you think about private entities doing it, there's a lot of data souvereignty backlash in Europe - remeber Blurmany where Google Streetview needed to pixalate the streetview image of private properties - oh boy.
So yeah - I'd love a digital twin of every real-world asset - it's needed down the road anyway - but it's a long way.
Well, humans don't drive with backups most of the time - so if the barrier is beating human safety we should be fine.
I had a wiper failure during a drive years back - I left the highway, called roadside assistance and they fixed it on the spot.
And if you thing about the cameras - we already have redundancy - there's multiple cameras, the front ones are overlapping.
What's the definition of solving?
I was very impressed when AI Driver did his ssensor-blocking test with the early FSD beta versions that sill continued driving no matter which camera was blocked - it was amazing to see FSD still being able to drive with nearly fully blocked sensors. I'm not saying it will ever be safe to drive with 90%+ blocked - but safe enough to leave the current lane and come to a safe spot to get stuff fixed.
But to wrap it up - I still need to find a way to get conviction - or I just stick to the investor thread and life is easy
I should add why I am on this thread now - because Elon is focusing more on FSD - and if the consensus is Tesla won't be able to keep up with the current RoboTaxi companies then this will look really bad for the Musk and Tesla as innovation leaders.
Personally - I am currently looking at used M3s in Germany with FSD, the used market is not valuing FSD much so it's super cheap to have with a used car, and I want to be on the frontline using the BETA when it arrives in Germany, whenever that is - but my current P85+ only has rear-view camera, so no luck there
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