Autonomous Car Progress

[nativewolf]

There are opportunities which Uber isn't in a good position to tackle simply because they don't capture many trips made by 8 to 16 year olds (kids alone in car with an unknown driver is scary to many parents); and these trips frequently involve being at a common place at a common time with their peers (sports practice/games, band/scouts/clubs, school, etc.). Parents will almost certainly stop being a chauffeur to the kids in their neighbourhood (many already trade-off carpools to kid events) and let Waymo pick it up, especially if the passenger cannot change the destination.

Once they start competing for growth (long after basic taxi enthusiasm has passed), I expect recurring kid trips to be viewed as a very important market for the same reason banks pay close attention to 18 year olds. Capture a 12 year old customer and you'll likely have them as a customer for decades.

Out of curiosity do you have kids? Ever taken kids to soccer practice?

 

[Dewg]

I think If it is mileage only the dense metro area s could go AVs. You have lots of issues once family life gets in the way. Car seats soccer balls, hockey sticks that all live in the car. 4 errands on the way home. Can you have the robotaxi wait?

I don't think you could, but there would be enough of a supply that ordering new one wouldn't take too much time. And families would likely still own a family car for those reasons.

 

[nativewolf]

For those reasons and many others I do t think the total AV market is as large in the USA as some think.

I see AV mostly being for the same reasons as Uber- travel and entertainment. I think Uber is punching up against the market size already and anything additional is going to be very slow accreation. What would be different is if AVs were really cheap. Which they could be. But then there wont be crazy profits.

Unlike some posters I could see AVs maki g traffic much worse just as Uber drivers do. More congestion not less.

 

[stopcrazypp]

For those reasons and many others I do t think the total AV market is as large in the USA as some think.

I see AV mostly being for the same reasons as Uber- travel and entertainment. I think Uber is punching up against the market size already and anything additional is going to be very slow accreation. What would be different is if AVs were really cheap. Which they could be. But then there wont be crazy profits.

Unlike some posters I could see AVs maki g traffic much worse just as Uber drivers do. More congestion not less.

Uber and Lyft have already been demonstrated to increase traffic in cities due to multiple factors: induced demand, cars circling for passengers, displacing more efficient public transit like busses and light rail, etc. I imagine AVs would be quite similar, at least initially, as they target the same crowd.

 

[rbt123]

Out of curiosity do you have kids? Ever taken kids to soccer practice?

Several times a week to various activities; as did my parents for me. I'm not in USA though.

Why?

 

[Dewg]

Several times a week to various activities; as did my parents for me. I'm not in USA though.

Why?

The idea is that families leave child items in the car all the time, such as sports equipment. If they didn't have a car and used AVs only, having to take that equipment in and out multiple times a day would be impractical.

 

[rbt123]

The idea is that families leave child items in the car all the time, such as sports equipment. If they didn't have a car and used AVs only, having to take that equipment in and out multiple times a day would be impractical.

Interesting. I don't think that's common here. Everything is taken out either tossed into the wash (uniform/training clothes) and the bag with gear is put into the basement. Winter probably reinforces this behaviour as putting on frozen gear is rather unpleasant.

 

[johnm]

But I do think personal car ownership will become much less common as robotaxis scale, and get better and cheaper.

The same technology that will make robotaxis practical will also increase the set of people for whom car ownership is practical (elderly people, disabled people, people with suspended/revoked drivers licenses, ...). And then we have children. Will households eventually have a car that exists primarily for use by their (age < 16) child(ren)?

Who are the people who say, I would give up my car and only use taxis if only there weren't a human in the front seat?

 

[jabloomf1230]

The same technology that will make robotaxis practical will also increase the set of people for whom car ownership is practical (elderly people, disabled people, people with suspended/revoked drivers licenses, ...). And then we have children. Will households eventually have a car that exists primarily for use by their (age < 16) child(ren)?

Who are the people who say, I would give up my car and only use taxis if only there weren't a human in the front seat?

I agree with you. For all the complaining about FSDb, it does make driving easier. If it eventually becomes a reliable level 2 package, it will aid drivers that may not be the best ones on the road. This type of AD will compete head on with robotaxis that may be classified at higher SAE levels.

 

[diplomat33]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1638321058095968257

 

[nativewolf]

Several times a week to various activities; as did my parents for me. I'm not in USA though.

Why?

Oh just curious as to what your cars look like inside. All of my suburban friends have water bottles, soccer balls, bags of soccer balls, etc etc. The hockey playing kids go practice at 5am with a bag full of kit. Cars accumulate "stuff". I just don't see families being able to dodge the expenditure of family cars with kids- not with our current culture. Car seats..oh man the car seats. Don't get me started on car seats. Snacks...forgot snacks...kids from school with snacks in the car already.

I think AV pretty much maps over the demand for Uber- pushes it out a bit. More car replacement than Uber.

 

[diplomat33]

DeepRoute.AI announced Driver 3.0 which will offer point-to-point navigation on all roads with no ODD restrictions. It uses no HD maps, just cameras and 1 front lidar.

 

[ThomasD]

So Driver 3.0 can operate on any road? Any road surface in any Weather? Can it navigate with low or no GPS signal? Just curious.

 

[diplomat33]

So Driver 3.0 can operate on any road? Any road surface in any Weather? Can it navigate with low or no GPS signal? Just curious.

yes to all.

 

[EVNow]

DeepRoute.AI announced Driver 3.0 which will offer point-to-point navigation on all roads with no ODD restrictions. It uses no HD maps, just cameras and 1 front lidar.

TL;DR ?

What does "announced" mean ?

 

[EVNow]

I agree with you. For all the complaining about FSDb, it does make driving easier. If it eventually becomes a reliable level 2 package, it will aid drivers that may not be the best ones on the road. This type of AD will compete head on with robotaxis that may be classified at higher SAE levels.

I've no doubt that attentive human + FSDb makes the driving that much more safer. As the data shows. I don't have to watch out to make sure I'm not speeding or drifting across lanes, for eg. Both things humans do all the time (as you can see on any recorded drive).

 

[ThomasD]

Driver 3.0 is level 5? No Self Driving car will ever be able to handle all conditions drivers face

 

[diplomat33]

Driver 3.0 is level 5?

No. It will be L2 but hands-free. It will just work everywhere, meaning you can turn it on on any road.

No Self Driving car will ever be able to handle all conditions drivers face

I believe eventually they will.

TL;DR ?

What does "announced" mean ?

I posted the TL;DR in your own consumer tracking thread and tagged you so you will see it.

But the TL;DR is DeepRoute.AI has a system called "Driver 3.0" that works without HD maps. It will be available on an "established brand" for consumers to buy later this year. Consumers will be able to buy a $1000 option that does lane keeping and automatic cruise control or a $2000 option that will do auto park and point to point navigation on all roads with no ODD restriction.

 

[Mullermn]

No Self Driving car will ever be able to handle all conditions drivers face

I don't think this is true, though a lot rides on how you define 'handle'.

The fact is that humans drive in a wide variety of circumstances where it's not really safe to do so. Either too fast for the conditions, or when there is simply no information on what is in front of them and they drive on guesswork (eg, in heavy snow where markings and signs are obstructed). Also people are used to the sort of mistakes that humans make and have a lot of tolerance for them. AVs could have the exact same error rate as humans but will be judged far more harshly just because the mistakes they make seem 'dumb' to us.

Autonomous vehicles COULD be programmed to accept the same level of uncertainty that humans do, but people will never be happy with that. The tradeoff will have to be that autonomous cars will be more conservative in their judgement and probably refuse to operate (by parking as safely as possible) in conditions where humans would trust to their over-inflated view of their own judgement. AVs do have the advantage that they can incorporate sensors that are more resistant to weather interference than human vision, which might offset some of that.

Remember that AVs already exist in all sorts of fields. The basic problem of 'move from A to B on your own' has been solved in air, water, rough ground and even other planets, that's not the hard bit. The hard bit is managing the rules of the road and interactions with other traffic, and you might have noticed that as soon as conditions get bad humans aren't so great at that either and tend to run in to stuff a lot.

 

[Doggydogworld]

The idea is that families leave child items in the car all the time, such as sports equipment. If they didn't have a car and used AVs only, having to take that equipment in and out multiple times a day would be impractical.

My kids and their teammates had duffel bags. It was necessary due to carpooling.

Who are the people who say, I would give up my car and only use taxis if only there weren't a human in the front seat?

Plenty of women prefer to ride in an empty car vs. one manned by a stranger. But it's really a matter of cost. If you can cut driver cost 90% and cut fuel/maintenance/depreciation 50-75% by going to long-life BEVs you can start to replace 2nd / 3rd cars. That's a massive market.