Autopilot 2.0

[calisnow]

Here is the link and Mobileye's CEO Ziv Aviram's direct quote from last November:

Supplier hints at next generation Autopilot hardware for Tesla within a year

The CEO described the “more sophisticated system” saying that one OEM is already implementing it in a vehicle:

“Today we are already preparing with one of the OEM, a first vehicle based on 8 cameras, one radar and ultrasonic around the vehicle. So this is much wider implementation of the first introduction of semi-autonomous driving and the trifocal is going to be here as we planned, but additional 4 cameras around the vehicle and one camera looking back. The system will run on 5 EyeQ3 chips and all of them will be connected.”

Aviram didn’t disclose which automaker is testing the system, but he said during a recent conference that Tesla is willing to push the envelope “faster and more aggressively than any other OEM”. He also hinted that the new system could find its way into a commercial product within a year and we know that Tesla has been testing a similar hardware suite."

 

[JeffreyY]

How many cameras does the new MB E have? I wonder if that's the system MobilEye was referring to above

 

[calisnow]

How many cameras does the new MB E have? I wonder if that's the system MobilEye was referring to above

The 2017 E-class has a bunch of cameras (I don't remember how many). But Mercedes doesn't use Mobileye, hasn't been building out high definition lane maps with its customer cars and isn't doing any fleet learning - which is one reason I speculate they are behind Tesla in their lane keeping accuracy. As far as the public knows there is no Mercedes which does any kind of fleet learning on actual public roads in customer-driven cars. I believe they have been using chips from NXP - but Benz has a deep bench internal research department and has been working on autonomous cars since at least the 1990's. Benz also claims in papers to write much of their own code both for object detection, path planning and sensor fusion.

I personally speculate that one reason Benz's new 2017 E Class appears to be so weak on lane keeping is that Benz may have an internal culture problem - with a bunch of old school German computer scientists in their 50's and 60's with entire careers invested in whatever AI future they envisioned - then the use of neural networks exploded in the last few years.

I'm sure Benz will quickly pivot and catch up but it does seem Tesla caught them with their pants down for a couple years. Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.

 

[calisnow]

Well thought out, well articulated.
But - this assumes that Musk has control of the magic. That he has a working chip/camera in his pocket

Oh - one other piece of evidence that Musk may in fact have a chip in his pocket is an Israeli newspaper which reported in late March that several weeks prior Musk was seen in Israel - where he flew to view Mobileye's latest breakthroughs in action, fitted to a Model S:

"Sources inform "Globes" that a few weeks ago billionaire Elon Musk, owner of electric car maker Tesla and promoter of various energy and space ventures, secretly visited Israel. Musk flew to Israel in a private plane to visit Mobileye (NYSE: MBLY), which is developing key components for Tesla's automatic driving system Autopilot, which the company intends to launch commercially within the next few years.
Automotive industry sources say the aim of the visit was to view a demonstration of several breakthrough developments by Mobileye in this field installed on a trial Tesla Model S vehicle. Two vehicles of this type have been in Israel for some time and are being used in the development of the automated system."

Elon Musk visits Mobileye in Israel - Globes English

 

[cronosx]

Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.

If it was the problem, they should beep every 2 minutes, use sensor on the wheel or similar. their system is just dumb, like the the system of the competitor.

 

[ecarfan]

they've stated that the EyeQ4 coming to market in 2018 will be capable of operating all these cameras on a single chip.

And at that point I think we will start to see autonomous driving start to come to a wide range of car models from multiple car manufacturers.

We are a lot closer to Level 4 than the vast majority of the car buying public realizes. In 5 years it will be commonplace.

 

[JeffreyY]

The 2017 E-class has a bunch of cameras (I don't remember how many). But Mercedes doesn't use Mobileye, hasn't been building out high definition lane maps with its customer cars and isn't doing any fleet learning - which is one reason I speculate they are behind Tesla in their lane keeping accuracy. As far as the public knows there is no Mercedes which does any kind of fleet learning on actual public roads in customer-driven cars. I believe they have been using chips from NXP - but Benz has a deep bench internal research department and has been working on autonomous cars since at least the 1990's. Benz also claims in papers to write much of their own code both for object detection, path planning and sensor fusion.

I personally speculate that one reason Benz's new 2017 E Class appears to be so weak on lane keeping is that Benz may have an internal culture problem - with a bunch of old school German computer scientists in their 50's and 60's with entire careers invested in whatever AI future they envisioned - then the use of neural networks exploded in the last few years.

I'm sure Benz will quickly pivot and catch up but it does seem Tesla caught them with their pants down for a couple years. Now they are claiming they purposely made the 2017 E-Class's lane keeping system inaccurate - so that drivers stay attentive. To me that sounds like a desperate Hail Mary excuse to save face.

Thx for the info on MB not using mobileye

 

[sandpiper]

And at that point I think we will start to see autonomous driving start to come to a wide range of car models from multiple car manufacturers.

We are a lot closer to Level 4 than the vast majority of the car buying public realizes. In 5 years it will be commonplace.

Not buying it. I think we're technically close. But that last small fraction of a percent will be a tough one. Combine that with the regulatory hurdles and I think 20 years at the earliest. I can see dedicated auto-drive lanes as being the next step.

 

[hybridbear]

Maybe this time will be different, I dunno. If I were in your shoes and I had functional transportation I would definitely specify a late December/early January delivery, not September. We are *this* close - I think it's silly not to wait 90 more days for what is likely going to be a huge leap forward in functionality and safety that will pay dividends to you for years to come.

If anything, I believe the fatality will push Tesla to get the next generation out sooner rather than later. Tesla really needs some good news to get people past the Solar City/fatality/declining delivery mountain of negative press.

My guess is December. So, given their problems with deadlines I'll wager February at the absolute latest for hardware to be shipping in cars - I make no prediction whatsoever on when software will be ready for said hardware. Reasoning is:

• Musk - Says M3 reveal "part 2" is at the end of the year. He has said the interior will make more sense at that time (ie the center mount screen) and I *think* he said that the reveal is going to blow everyone away.
• Musk - In an interview when asked if M3 will be self driving responded that he shouldn't answer that question now, then when pressed further said Tesla will do "the obvious thing."
• JB - Said two relevant things: 1 - M3 will showcase Tesla's "next generation" technology. Is that necessarily AP? No - could be battery or drivetrain in addition to AP. 2 - JB has said S/X will continue to lead the way in technology and Tesla will not hold back for M3.
• Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.
• Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Given the above I condense the reasoning into:

Tesla will reveal more capable autopilot in part 2 of the M3 reveal, coming at the end of the year. Since Tesla does not want to Osborne the Model S they must simultaneously ship a more capable Autopilot in Model S/X, or even prior to the M3 reveal. The argument that Tesla will hold out the new autopilot for M3 is countered by JB's public statement that Tesla will not do that. As for whether a more capable system is possible we know that it is with currently available EyeQ3 SOC's.

This is how I arrive at an outer bounds end-of-2016 estimate for AP 2.0 hardware to ship in S/X. I don't predict it will be capable of full autonomy or even that the software will be ready.

My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...

 

[msnow]

My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...

There will always be some new thing with Tesla. If this is going to upset you perhaps this isn't the right car for you.

Edit: @hybridbear - just saw you "disliked" my comment. Sorry but I can't in good conscience tell you there's a good answer but this is technology that is constantly evolving. By the way there will likely be another referral discount. They have been renewing it every quarter since the summer of 2015.

 

[TaoJones]

My lease on my Focus Electric is up on August 15th. At that point I will have no vehicle. I could maybe get by for a couple of weeks borrowing a car from my parents for a couple days a week and getting by with walking to work & everywhere else during the workweek, but I couldn't do that for months. I ordered my Model S last week & have a couple more days to make changes. I am debating asking for a January delivery, or just canceling my order right now while I can get a full refund of my deposit & waiting to see what happens. If I get a Model S and then AP 2.0 hardware starts being installed within the 6 months after I bought my car then I will be very upset. Spending this kind of money on a car is a once in a lifetime purchase for me, and not something that I can afford to repeat. My enjoyment of the car will be lost if I just barely miss out on AP 2.0.

Another option I have considered is keeping my current order (because I got the $1000 referral discount) and then just asking them to delay delivery until January 2017. Then the car should be built in mid-December 2016 and hopefully have the new hardware. But, I would be extra upset if I delay my delivery a few months & then still end up with no new hardware.

I wish we had a date scheduled for the upcoming event. If we knew a date then we could be fairly confident that the hardware would be built into cars starting prior to that date, like what happened with AP 1.0. It's making me really nervous...

As I have shared with those considering the purchase of a new Model S:

1. Configure options a and b from the design studio and print them out.

2. Get pre-qualified if you plan to finance or lease.

3. Identify those 1-2 key features most important to you.

4. When the 1-2 features become available, immediately place your order and pays yer deposit (submit and confirm).

In the case above, it's item #4 that's of most importance. Wait, then commit.

Insofar as AP 2.0 is concerned, if it's anything like AP1.0, there will be hardware first, and refinements to software releases over the next 1-2 years.

Recommend you consider deferring the once in a lifetime purchase until the execution of item 4 above. Note that 3 years after that, it will be time for the next once in a lifetime purchase. To bridge the gap between now and the order of the first once in a lifetime purchase, do consider an under-warranty AP Model S. It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".

 

[hybridbear]

It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".

What ICE lease? I haven't driven an ICE for years now...

 

[trils0n]

If anyone wants to get a car with Autopilot 2.0, the best thing they can do is wait till it is announced/shipping. Ordering a car and hoping they change the features to something you want is a recipe for disappointment.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

As I have shared with those considering the purchase of a new Model S:

1. Configure options a and b from the design studio and print them out.

2. Get pre-qualified if you plan to finance or lease.

3. Identify those 1-2 key features most important to you.

4. When the 1-2 features become available, immediately place your order and pays yer deposit (submit and confirm).

In the case above, it's item #4 that's of most importance. Wait, then commit.

Insofar as AP 2.0 is concerned, if it's anything like AP1.0, there will be hardware first, and refinements to software releases over the next 1-2 years.

Recommend you consider deferring the once in a lifetime purchase until the execution of item 4 above. Note that 3 years after that, it will be time for the next once in a lifetime purchase. To bridge the gap between now and the order of the first once in a lifetime purchase, do consider an under-warranty AP Model S. It doesn't have to be perfect - just a relatively low cost bridge car to get you from ICE lease expiration until, say, 2-3 years down the line when you deem AP2.0 to be "ready".

As Charlie Brown would say :AGHAGGAHHH.
I made a Model 3 reservation, and then read every M3 post, then most of the MS posts, then got excited about the MS60 and configured away. Fence sitting - wait for AP2 or not?; pull the trigger while having a Referral coupon?. Did not like the trade in offer, did not like entry/exit from the low slung MS..decided to let July 15 lapse and rebuy in Dec (or when AP2 is announced or when I'm more athletic and flexible ) . Tao - I'm past your #4 and iterating- do loop back to #1. Buyers remorse (actually non-buyer remorse).
Now, you dirty rotten..you say there is a good chance of a renewed referral program. That gives me more confidence at delaying. Did I say AGHAGGAHHH.
Decision de Jour - Fence sit until AP2 is hardwired, then buy MS, and still hold on to M3 for possibly dual Tesla. Not going to install 14-50 until I place MS order. Let Alliant loan offer expire until I place MS order. My existing sleds are in very good condition and there is no fuse burning. Just chill while on fence.

 

[TaoJones]

What ICE lease? I haven't driven an ICE for years now...

s/ICE/Focus

 

[hybridbear]

s/ICE/Focus

My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...

 

[TaoJones]

As Charlie Brown would say :AGHAGGAHHH.
I made a Model 3 reservation, and then read every M3 post, then most of the MS posts, then got excited about the MS60 and configured away. Fence sitting - wait for AP2 or not?; pull the trigger while having a Referral coupon?. Did not like the trade in offer, did not like entry/exit from the low slung MS..decided to let July 15 lapse and rebuy in Dec (or when AP2 is announced or when I'm more athletic and flexible ) . Tao - I'm past your #4 and iterating- do loop back to #1. Buyers remorse (actually non-buyer remorse).
Now, you dirty rotten..you say there is a good chance of a renewed referral program. That gives me more confidence at delaying. Did I say AGHAGGAHHH.
Decision de Jour - Fence sit until AP2 is hardwired, then buy MS, and still hold on to M3 for possibly dual Tesla. Not going to install 14-50 until I place MS order. Let Alliant loan offer expire until I place MS order. My existing sleds are in very good condition and there is no fuse burning. Just chill while on fence.

Hehe - hang in there!

I pulled the trigger after the Oct 2014 AP event, and, depending upon how you look at it, the timing was either exactly right or was somewhere between 6 months and 2 years early.

One thing I do know - there will be contingency plans in place at each future decision point so as to not be without an EV (presumably a Tesla) until they pry my driver's license from my cold, arthritic fingers. Partly because of the Tesla driving experience, and partly because if I drove an ICE these days I'd just be a danger to myself and others.

Triggers for the next purchase are exactly 2: AP2.0 and, ideally, a 120kW battery. Until then, a Model 3 in 18 months will serve as the bridge car.

 

[msnow]

My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...

You've completely missed his point focusing on the wrong thing. He's basically saying buy a used Tesla under warranty or another car (doesn't matter what) until Tesla has all the options you want as a bridge. That's all.

 

[TaoJones]

My post above says that I drive a Focus Electric. My signature currently says the same thing...

Way to miss the forest for the trees.

Simple error on my part in the initial post. The s/x/y was shorthand for you to read "Focus" where the "ICE" is.

I'll go edit the original post now if the edit window is still open.

Or maybe delete it entirely since evidently the post itself is not of interest.

Edit: nope - 60-minute edit window expired. Suggest you disregard the word ICE in the fragment "ICE lease" and... have a nice day.

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Way to miss the forest for the trees.

Simple error on my part in the initial post. The s/x/y was shorthand for you to read "Focus" where the "ICE" is.

I'll go edit the original post now if the edit window is still open.

Or maybe delete it entirely since evidently the post itself is not of interest.

Edit: nope - 60-minute edit window expired. Suggest you disregard the word ICE in the fragment "ICE lease" and... have a nice day.

You have some 800 posts. Which do you want to delete? I for one especially liked your 1,2,3,4 post. Please don't delete. It was of interest.