Autopilot 2.0

[SR22pilot]

I interpreted his "secret master plan" tweet to mean that he is going to communicate something about the overall future direction of Tesla as a company - not specifics on any one technology such as autopilot. I could be wrong of course.

I agree. I think he is going to discuss Tesla as an energy company and why buying Solar City makes sense in order to follow the new "secret master plan."

 

[Zybd1201]

Twitter

Something is definitely going to be announced by end of this year, hopefully.

Interestingly no mention of "new hardware"

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Yes, a tad snark. I've used the "Im certain it will rain today" and trail into location.. so many times my wife just eye-rolls when I start.
As for optimism.... I am waiting with unbelievable anticipation and optimism, credit card in hand, to pull the trigger on my MS. I neeeeeed to know AP2 is here.

Well - I just did it. Placed my order for a shiny red Model S. Does this mean I can't play hear any more?

 

[calisnow]

Well - I just did it. Placed my order for a shiny red Model S. Does this mean I can't play hear any more?

Don't like you now - move along please.

 

[msnow]

Well - I just did it. Placed my order for a shiny red Model S. Does this mean I can't play hear any more?

See ya!

 

[krazineurons]

Well - I just did it. Placed my order for a shiny red Model S. Does this mean I can't play hear any more?

When are you taking the delivery?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

Those dirty rotten folks at Tesla want to take my trade in RIGHT NOW, so of course I must take delivery ASAP to minimize my time walking. Cant delay until AP2 is released (will that be soon, intermediate, M3 reveal, or just do it).
Now all those questions of wiring the house to 100 amps, Xpel coatings, etc shift from theoretical to damnit-doit.
I've never researched a car buying experience this hard before. Quick check on horsepower, and other performance features, color, price and the real is done. Here...500 messages to just THIS forum and those are just the ones that made to to the keyboard.

Time to start the log:
Ordered = 7/11/16
Confirmed = 7/?
Entered Production = 8/?
Exit Production = 8/ ?+ 7 days
In Transit = 8/7 + 14 days
At Service Center = Sept 1 ?
Commissioning date = Sept + 14 days?
First night home = My Birthday mid Sept????

Multi-coat Arrest-me Red MS60
Metal roof
Autopilot 1.0 (damn, I wanted to get 2.0)
Tan leather
White headliner

 

[msnow]

Those dirty rotten folks at Tesla want to take my trade in RIGHT NOW, so of course I must take delivery ASAP to minimize my time walking. Cant delay until AP2 is released (will that be soon, intermediate, M3 reveal, or just do it).
Now all those questions of wiring the house to 100 amps, Xpel coatings, etc shift from theoretical to damnit-doit.
I've never researched a car buying experience this hard before. Quick check on horsepower, and other performance features, color, price and the real is done. Here...500 messages to just THIS forum and those are just the ones that made to to the keyboard.

Time to start the log:
Ordered = 7/11/16
Confirmed = 7/?
Entered Production = 8/?
Exit Production = 8/ ?+ 7 days
In Transit = 8/7 + 14 days
At Service Center = Sept 1 ?
Commissioning date = Sept + 14 days?
First night home = My Birthday mid Sept????

Multi-coat Arrest-me Red MS60
Metal roof
Autopilot 1.0 (damn, I wanted to get 2.0)
Tan leather
White headliner

Congratulations AZ!!

 

[calisnow]

Those dirty rotten folks at Tesla want to take my trade in RIGHT NOW

They want your trade now, rather than when you get the Tesla built and sign the paperwork?

 

[AZ Desert Driver]

yeah - They met my requested Trade- In value, and seem to want to not let that value decline over the next 6 weeks - so I get to walk for awhile. Nice, huh? I'll have another chat about letting me use my car for the duration...first round did not go my way.

 

[roblab]

In my experience, you buy your car, you don't know what level of hardware you have, new firmware comes out and you go out in the morning to see you now have... well, in your case, probably AP 2.0. I highly suspect you have the hardware. Don't cry until you know you don't.

 

[krazineurons]

• Mobileye - has been saying publicly for over a year that a multicamera EyeQ3 system is coming from an OEM in 2016. Their latest prediction for an 8 camera system is 2017 however.

• Mobileye - Has also specifically said a multi-camera EyeQ3 system will ship in a car before EyeQ4. Each EyeQ3 was designed to handle multiple camera inputs and was also designed to network with other EyeQ3's. So Tesla does not have to wait for EyeQ4 to ship before going multi-camera in the S/X.

Does the recent announcement from MobileEye change your predictions? How do you think Tesla is planning to deliver AP 2.0 without Mobile Eye?

 

[MarkS22]

Does the recent announcement from MobileEye change your predictions? How do you think Tesla is planning to deliver AP 2.0 without Mobile Eye?

My initial thought was DrivePX, but then Musk said:

"MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car"

So, it sounds like he's looking for an in-house solution (probably using sensors from companies like Bosch) that can be designed specifically for Tesla. I suspect this will push out the release of AP 2.0 hardware until well into 2017 or later. Jim Keller (Vice President of Autopilot Hardware Engineering) and Andrew Graham appear to be in charge of the program. They're only on-board for about six months.Up until this point, there was much speculation that Mobileye and a possible "five EyeQ3 8-camera system" could be coming. There's no possible way they've gotten up to speed, designed, tested, and implemented a new sensor suite in fewer than six months.

Now, look at the theme that has been happening the past month or two. For example, Elon's comment that we will see "moderate to big" improvements in 8.0 with current hardware. And that Bosch will be able to make "significant improvements" with the radar via software. I believe these are suggestive that the next sensor suite is further out and they're planting seeds that current hardware has yet to reach its limits.

I suspect Tesla is looking to lean more heavily on radar to build 3D point clouds as opposed to Mobileye's camera-priority model. If Tesla indeed pivots to making radar more of a priority, it would clash with Mobileye's roadmap.

Note Elon said this event "will not have any material effect on [Tesla’s] plans." That doesn't mean "no delay." After all, they never announced or promised another hardware suite.

 

[msnow]

My initial thought was DrivePX, but then Musk said:

"MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car"

So, it sounds like he's looking for an in-house solution (probably using sensors from companies like Bosch) that can be designed specifically for Tesla. I suspect this will push out the release of AP 2.0 hardware until well into 2017 or later. Jim Keller (Vice President of Autopilot Hardware Engineering) and Andrew Graham appear to be in charge of the program. They're only on-board for about six months.Up until this point, there was much speculation that Mobileye and a possible "five EyeQ3 8-camera system" could be coming. There's no possible way they've gotten up to speed, designed, tested, and implemented a new sensor suite in fewer than six months.

Now, look at the theme that has been happening the past month or two. For example, Elon's comment that we will see "moderate to big" improvements in 8.0 with current hardware. And that Bosch will be able to make "significant improvements" with the radar via software. I believe these are suggestive that the next sensor suite is further out and they're planting seeds that current hardware has yet to reach its limits.

I suspect Tesla is looking to lean more heavily on radar to build 3D point clouds as opposed to Mobileye's camera-priority model. If Tesla indeed pivots to making radar more of a priority, it would clash with Mobileye's roadmap.

Note Elon said this event "will not have any material effect on [Tesla’s] plans." That doesn't mean "no delay." After all, they never announced or promised another hardware suite.

This makes total sense.

 

[krazineurons]

My initial thought was DrivePX, but then Musk said:

"MobilEye’s ability to evolve its technology is unfortunately negatively affected by having to support hundreds of models from legacy auto companies, resulting in a very high engineering drag coefficient. Tesla is laser-focused on achieving full self-driving capability on one integrated platform with an order of magnitude greater safety than the average manually driven car"

So, it sounds like he's looking for an in-house solution (probably using sensors from companies like Bosch) that can be designed specifically for Tesla. I suspect this will push out the release of AP 2.0 hardware until well into 2017 or later. Jim Keller (Vice President of Autopilot Hardware Engineering) and Andrew Graham appear to be in charge of the program. They're only on-board for about six months.Up until this point, there was much speculation that Mobileye and a possible "five EyeQ3 8-camera system" could be coming. There's no possible way they've gotten up to speed, designed, tested, and implemented a new sensor suite in fewer than six months.

Now, look at the theme that has been happening the past month or two. For example, Elon's comment that we will see "moderate to big" improvements in 8.0 with current hardware. And that Bosch will be able to make "significant improvements" with the radar via software. I believe these are suggestive that the next sensor suite is further out and they're planting seeds that current hardware has yet to reach its limits.

I suspect Tesla is looking to lean more heavily on radar to build 3D point clouds as opposed to Mobileye's camera-priority model. If Tesla indeed pivots to making radar more of a priority, it would clash with Mobileye's roadmap.

Note Elon said this event "will not have any material effect on [Tesla’s] plans." That doesn't mean "no delay." After all, they never announced or promised another hardware suite.

Makes very good sense, but it doesn't explain how it fits with the Model 3 real part II plan slated for end of this year. Full autonomy with M3 is still on the cards and data so far suggests that current hardware will not be able to support it. From this new information it seems unlikely for them to announce a fully autonomous system by end of this year as they have to ship it with 2017 M3 deliveries and do the obvious thing as well.

OTOH I feel like stupid having delayed my MX delivery to JANUARY 2017. Is there a straw I can hold my sinking heart with?

 

[buckerine]

Makes very good sense, but it doesn't explain how it fits with the Model 3 real part II plan slated for end of this year. Full autonomy with M3 is still on the cards and data so far suggests that current hardware will not be able to support it. From this new information it seems unlikely for them to announce a fully autonomous system by end of this year as they have to ship it with 2017 M3 deliveries and do the obvious thing as well.

OTOH I feel like stupid having delayed my MX delivery to JANUARY 2017. Is there a straw I can hold my sinking heart with?

You can accelerate your delivery at anytime.

 

[AnxietyRanger]

So, in light of the latest MobilEye partnership discontinuation and all this talk of upgraded software for current HW from both MobilEye and Tesla (and indirectly Bosch), is the speculation that Tesla had cancelled a planned "AP 1.5" for Model X and facelift Model S (evidenced by the dual camera bracket in X, the schematics in S and various mules)... probably in favour of a full-autonomous capable AP 2.0 hardware (software to come belatedly) developed more in-house that may come later than AP 1.5 might have?

The three camera system seen in Model S facelift schematics could not possibly have been autonomous capable, so it would (have?) been an interim step still. This sort of announcement for the breaking of the partnership might imply that "AP 1.5" was still MobilEye based but fell through? Maybe the divorce reasons both Tesla and MobilEye give relate to pains in this project. Maybe it was late and Tesla decided to go direct to Level 4 hardware instead...

Just speculation of course.

 

[JeffreyY]

Have you guys seen this

Wait to buy model S, hoping for next gen autopilot hardware?

 

[krazineurons]

Have you guys seen this

Wait to buy model S, hoping for next gen autopilot hardware?

Why are the chances that littlebirdie11 isn't trolling?

 

[JeffreyY]

Dunno