Thanks for your feedback. You may well be right, but I'm not sure I understand your point. Are you suggesting that the AWD tracker data indicates more 2017 and 2018 reservers are getting cars than the anecdotal evidence? This data set is small of course although almost 1,000 orders. Also, the data is purely voluntary: some posters may be overstating their actual case, and others may be neglecting to post after they get good news. I just don't know.
In my case, I reserved January 16th, 2018. I got my VIN today. There should be tons of reservers before me, but this is limited by those who pick a config that Tesla's immature manufacturing process and supplier stream are producing. I'm AWD with EAP and Red colour, black interior, and have no trade-in, so I'm paying more than some who want a cheaper config, plus my money will come quick and easy from Tesla's standpoint. All factors that might get me a car before others who reserved before me. I'm not saying this is right, I'm just trying like you to understand their methodology. And I know of many other anecdotes of people getting their cars even though they reserved late. FYI, here's what the data looks like today for earliest VIN by typical configs:
I think our data may have issues for a number of reasons, including errors in entry. I'm working on an update to the entry form that should reduce errors and make it easier to update, and thereby increase the reliability of the reports. I'd appreciate feedback when I post it.
Thanks again.
