Bitcoin, Cryptocurrency and Blockchain Discussion Thread

[Knightshade]

The premise is wrong. the main reason gold has value these days is because it has had value for so long.

I find that overly reductive.

It was valuable a long time because it was inherently valuable as money

For thousands of years of human history.

And people believe it will be again. (plus it still has decorative and industrial uses that are valuable too)

BTC has never had any inherent value ever. It's just been an instrument of worthless speculation and crime, for a tiny number of years.

That's Apples and Cell Phone Plans to steal a phrase.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

I used to think that, but now I think store of value will win out as the primary driver of BTC ownershio. BTC isn't very good for the vast majority of payments, with the exception of certain international transfers. ETFs drive store of value.

I think you can both be right in this case.
The short-term will see gains in price from initial investments by the ETF managers.
But remember, these ETF's need to be seeded, so the firms have to buy actual BTC and hold it in order to take in investors' money.
That's where these ETF's will have the more longer-term effects, because the demand is going to be ahead of the supply that is available, especially after the having in April, when the overall new supply of bitcoins entering the market is, by design, cut in half.
So the already high demand remains/grows, but the supply halves. This can only push the "price" of Bitcoin higher because to be able to take in more AUM, these ETF managers will have to pay more for the ever-decreasing supply of Bitcoin.

As for the store of value, I do think that will continue to grow, as more people will be putting their savings in Bitcoin because it is deflationary by nature. I just think over time as the industry keeps making improvements, like the Lightning Network and Liquid, at the layer 2 level, and day-to-day transactions continue to become easier, I do believe we'll see the everyday uses of bitcoin increase as well.

So these scenarios are happening parallel, even though they're not directly related. That's how both of you are correct.

 

[ChooseFreedom]

How?

This is just a new way for people interested in fake money to lose more of their actual money.




what, specifically, did they "give up"?


I skipped over replying to the rest of the post which is mainly fantasy/imagination/conspiracy stuff.

Wow, you're dug in deeper than a tick.

"Money" is any agreed upon medium of exchange.

Your fiat is only valid because the gov says it is, AND people accept it. It only works if both are true.
The actual paper it's printed on is worthless. Fiat is an idea, that's time is done.

Gold was used for thousands of years as the agreed upon medium of exchange because it was scarce, hard to destroy, verifiable (although was not easy to do), and it's pretty. (If gold were dull and gray it wouldn't be worth nearly as much, see lead)
But it's also, difficult to divide into small amounts, it's expensive to protect, and difficult/expensive to transport in any kind of higher volumes.

Your fiat is the fakest kind of "money" that has ever existed. It goes down in value over time. It is anything but scarce since they print it infinitely. It physically burns. Can be fairly easily counterfeited (besides the infinite gov/bank creation). It also is expensive to protect and transport in high volumes.

Not to mention the fact that all fiat has been converting to digital forms for decades. (It's easier to hide their stealing that way).

All of your arguments against Bitcoin continue to get weaker as time goes by.
- Governments are creating CBDC's (digital "money" they control)
- Traditional Financial giants now accept Bitcoin as a legitimate asset. Not speculative, a commodity.
- More countries are accepting Bitcoin as a valid medium of exchange. (Money!)
- Legitimate daily use of Bitcoin continues to grow.
- And USD is still by order of magnitudes the preferred currency used for criminal activity.


What did the Fed/SEC give up? Really? Please tell me you do know, and are just seeing what I might say.
CONTROL, dude, control. Which is the most valuable thing to them.
They've F'd up their control of TradFi time and time again for over 100 yrs. To the point now, people want an exit.

But the Fed/SEC can't control Bitcoin the same way, and they've now been pressured into letting Bitcoin into their precious TradFi party.
This is just the beginning. I'm not even a fan of the ETF's. But if you can't see that the sheer demand for them alone shows you the writing on the wall, then you're just choosing to ignore it, and I can't help the closed-minded. So you do you, and I'll do me.
Good luck to you sir.

 

[Knightshade]

Wow, you're dug in deeper than a tick.

"Money" is any agreed upon medium of exchange.

Your fiat is only valid because the gov says it is, AND people accept it. It only works if both are true.

Right. And neither is true of BTC for roughly 99% of the world economy

And most of the remaining 1% are either actual businesses doing it as a gimmick and turn it back into "real" money after each transaction- or 2 failed national economies.

BTC is an absolute non-starter as actual money in the modern world once someone asks "What recourse do I have if I pay in BTC and don't get what I paid for?" and "What recourse do I have if someone hacks my passcode and steals my BTC?"

The answer is none. There's 0 financial protection available.

And the more you scream about how the government has no control over it the more that'll be true

That's on top of how garbage the fees are, esp. on small transactions, making it terrible as actual money on top. (yes yes, they're inventing new "layers" that'll fix it... and have been for years now...but real soon now, trust me bro!)

What did the Fed/SEC give up? Really? Please tell me you do know, and are just seeing what I might say.
CONTROL, dude, control. Which is the most valuable thing to them.

What "control", specifically, did they 'give up" by allowing an ETF for bitcoin?

It's regulated the exact same way all other ETFs are.

 

[Buckminster]

https://twitter.com/x/status/1747833108831826151

 

[Knightshade]

This the same Trump who previous said cryptocurrencies are not money and “Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity.”?

 

[ChooseFreedom]

This the same Trump who previous said cryptocurrencies are not money and “Unregulated Crypto Assets can facilitate unlawful behavior, including drug trade and other illegal activity.”?

Yeah, Its the same Trump that will say whatever is best for him. Even if that changes mid sentence.
And what he actually does, (ALWAYS what's best for him) very often doesn't match what he said.

I guarantee if someone else comes along and shows him how to profit personally from a CBDC, if elected, he's 100% pushing for a CBDC.
No question.

I'm not a Dem or a Rep. I just know a despicable person when I see one, based on their actions. When they show you who they are, believe them.
And the big orange has shown me more than enough to prove he has no business running a book club, much less this country.
He dodges tough decisions the way he dodged the draft.
He wouldn't know true leadership if it came in a McDonalds wrapper.

I don't trust what any politician says. But through their actions, you can see their true colors.

Educate yourself on all of these people. Ignore what they say. Learn what they've done. That's who they really are.
Are any of them really for us? Their actions will tell you way more than their words.

 

[chdlmc]

Disagree. The longer it stands resilient the greater belief people will have that it will continue to do so.

Completely agree. And the network effect of Bitcoin is substantial.

Time will tell...

 

[ChooseFreedom]

Completely agree. And the network effect of Bitcoin is substantial.

Time will tell...

The best time to have attacked the Bitcoin network and defeated it was the first 5 yrs, when it was small enough to overwhelm with 50% attacks.
But the Blocksize War showed the resilience of the decentralized Bitcoin network to attacks from within. So at that point, exterior attacks were already too expensive to attempt. And it has only grown exponentially since. It cannot be shut down. (ask China)
As more and more people get educated as to how Bitcoin works, how the current fiat system doesn't work for them, and how easy it is to exit that fiat system for a better alternative, Bitcoin will continue to slowly grow.

This political cycle is going to be very interesting. It'll be the first time you see Bitcoin actually become a big topic in debates.
You have all the old guard against it, and the younger future being for it. So the bigger it becomes, the more people will get curious and start to learn about it. So there will be all kinds of media attention, coming at Bitcoin from all angles, good and bad. The narrative that wins is crucial to how fast or slow Bitcoin can grow going forward. Whomever wins this prez election is still going to be anti-Bitcoin in private. But they won't be able to take a stand either way in public. Going to be very interesting indeed.

Vivek Ramaswamy just dropped out of the Rep race, and shocker, is endorsing the big orange.
But it seems Vivek did one good thing. He apparently educated Trump on the negatives of CBDC's. I won't hold my breath on any pro-Bitcoin announcements from him, but it's something. I think politicians will say whatever they think will get them votes, so...

We've already seen the Traditional Financial world embrace Bitcoin with the approval of many Bitcoin ETF's this month.
In the first 4 days of trading, it has already become the 2nd biggest ETF in history! 4 days! It's already passed the Silver ETF. And should become #1, passing the Gold ETF, in the near future.

The Bitcoin Halving is going to happen in April. Why is that important? Because if you combine the new ETF demand for Bitcoin with a supply that gets cut in half, you have an event that will skyrocket the value of Bitcoin.

Then, as the USD price of Bitcoin is soaring, you're going to have the political election campaigns heating up. And Bitcoin will be a big topic, which means a lot of regular folks who've never given a second thought to Bitcoin, will begin to hear it more and more often, and most will eventually have to think, maybe they should look into it. And if you have that many more people starting to learn about what is Bitcoin, it's inevitable that some of them will want to start getting involved, which will continue to push the BTC price up in the coming few years.

It's going to force whomever wins the elections to take notice and that's where we'll see some real action, good and bad.
There's a major fight coming. You're already seeing the likes of Elizabeth Warren begin to use her central banking money to try and manipulate legislation against "crypto". And it would kill most of the sh!tcoins. Could slow Bitcoin, but won't stop it.

Most of the opposition to cryptocurrencies comes from the central banking industry and the Federal Reserve, under the false premise that they're used for illicit activity and terrorism.
Chainalysis, a company that several US gov departments (FBI, CIA, ATF, IRS) use almost exclusively for their own blockchain research and analysis, just released their findings for 2023.
- Of all the cryptocurrency transactions in 2023, they found the percentage that were considered to be from "illicit addresses" to be 0.34%.
The argument that crypto is only used by criminals is dead. It's just not even remotely true. The US dollar is by magnitudes more highly used, and preferred, by criminals.

You also have several states that have already introduced legislation to protect their citizen's digital property rights, and by creating Bitcoin mining protection policies.

So much happening. It's a crazy exciting time. Lots of change is coming. (that word all conservatives fear - Change) And many battles to be fought. We'll have to see which ones are won, and if the changes made are for the better. It's going to get worse before it gets better. This fight is going to get ugly, dirty, and have a high cost. But I stay optimistic of the future on the other side of this difficult transition.
I have to believe my kids are going to have it better than us. I'm willing to sacrifice the 2nd half of my life fighting for the 2nd half of theirs, and most of my grandkids' lives. It's worth it to me. We didn't deserve the massive hole of debt our fathers and grandfathers left us with. It's time we stop passing that debt to future generations, put down the shovel, and ensure the future isn't just more of the same digging. Let's get back to building.
And for that to become true, these tough times and changes are long overdue, and need to occur now.

 

[Knightshade]

We've already seen the Traditional Financial world embrace Bitcoin with the approval of many Bitcoin ETF's this month.

"We're ok taking your ETF fees to let you gamble on a thing" is not endorsing said thing.

it's finding another way for smart financial people to separate dumb ones from their actual money.

- Of all the cryptocurrency transactions in 2023, they found the percentage that were considered to be from "illicit addresses" to be 0.34%.
The argument that crypto is only used by criminals is dead. It's just not even remotely true. The US dollar is by magnitudes more highly used, and preferred, by criminals.

Your realize blackmailers and people selling drugs/people/whatever such would be getting transactions to their accounts- not FROM them, right? You didn't provide a link for the source so maybe you just phrased the from thing poorly, I dunno...

What % of transactions were for use as actual money BTW? (ie buying goods and services, versus just passing it on to the next Greater Fool willing to give you Actual Money for it?)

 

[chdlmc]

it's finding another way for smart financial people to separate dumb ones from their actual money.

That is what inflation has been doing for a long time.

 

[Daniel in SD]

That is what inflation has been doing for a long time.

That’s why smart people don’t keep their money under a mattress. You can loan out money and earn interest. Can you do that with bitcoin?

 

[chdlmc]

That’s why smart people don’t keep their money under a mattress. You can loan out money and earn interest. Can you do that with bitcoin?

Yes, so to try and retain the purchasing power of your money, you must first earn the money and then invest it and take risks in doing so.

Who do you loan money out to? (If you are talking about that Vs passive investing which is what I took it to mean.)

I’m not sure regarding Bitcoin lending, that was available in the past but I never pursued it. It may no longer be available.

Regarding inflation, roughly half of Americans are invested in the stock market. So the current system devalues the savings and purchasing power for the other half as a given.

 

[Daniel in SD]

Yes, so to try and retain the purchasing power of your money, you must first earn the money and then invest it and take risks in doing so.

Who do you loan money out to? (If you are talking about that Vs passive investing which is what I took it to mean.)

I’m not sure regarding Bitcoin lending, that was available in the past but I never pursued it. It may no longer be available.

Regarding inflation, roughly half of Americans are invested in the stock market. So the current system devalues the savings and purchasing power for the other half as a given.

The other half have roughly no savings so they lose nothing from inflation. Obviously this is only true if their wages go up with inflation but that’s a whole other topic. People with debt benefit from inflation.
Currently I loan money to the bank, a couple CA municipalities, and the federal government (TIPS).
Very little of my net worth is in cash because money is not an investment.

 

[Knightshade]

The other half have roughly no savings so they lose nothing from inflation. Obviously this is only true if their wages go up with inflation but that’s a whole other topic. People with debt benefit from inflation.
Currently I loan money to the bank, a couple CA municipalities, and the federal government (TIPS).
Very little of my net worth is in cash because money is not an investment.

This also highlights another problem with Bitcoin pretending to be money-- because so many people buy it expecting it to increase a lot in value, they're never going to want to "spend" it on goods and services (and indeed, like 99% plus never do).

Who wants to be the guy who gets the news story written about how he paid $1,000 for a pizza because he used bitcoin or whatever?

 

[chdlmc]

The other half have roughly no savings so they lose nothing from inflation. Obviously this is only true if their wages go up with inflation but that’s a whole other topic. People with debt benefit from inflation.
Currently I loan money to the bank, a couple CA municipalities, and the federal government (TIPS).
Very little of my net worth is in cash because money is not an investment.

The other half do lose money from inflation because they have a constant reduction in buying power. That is a reduction in the utility of their labor/earnings that is constant, which represents most of their assets. That is a huge impact, the opposite of losing nothing.

If you loan money to the bank, and then I want a loan to buy a tesla, do they give me your money? No, they dilute the money supply further by creating new money and issue that to me (or tesla, and then i get the monthly payments) for the loan. Do you think the Fed Gov pays you back with existing money, or creates new money to make those service payments? All of which further dilutes the supply causing inflation.

And yes, people with debt benefit from inflation. That is a strange arrangement, but its true. If you had bought multiple houses at low rates then had the covid inflation explosion, you would be benefiting hugely. Meanwhile, many others just working and living more check to check have seen their quality of life go down. The incentives are backwards practically, savings is bad and debt is good.

 

[CorneliusXX]

This also highlights another problem with Bitcoin pretending to be money-- because so many people buy it expecting it to increase a lot in value, they're never going to want to "spend" it on goods and services (and indeed, like 99% plus never do).

Who wants to be the guy who gets the news story written about how he paid $1,000 for a pizza because he used bitcoin or whatever?

Out of interest, how do you see Bitcoin evolving?

Do people just decide it's not worth anything one day? Or a long steady decline?

 

[dhanson865]

What bitcoin I have I mined in the days when it was under $20 a coin. I'll convert it to USD in small amounts to take advantage of 0% long term capital gains tax bracket.

I don't care what a pizza costs. I'm just pulling funds out to increase my yearly income.

Married Filing Jointly Standard Deduction is $29,200 (2024 number).
Married Filing Jointly 0% Long Term Capital Gains tax bracket is up to $94,050. (2024 number).

meaning any year bitcoin is up in the 5 figure range and my total income is below ~$125,000 I can pull money out of the coin tax free.

In the past that has mean transactions between $4,000 to $18,000 BTC value but back then I was only pulling a few hundred dollars at a time. Up in the $40,000+ range for BTC I'll pull whatever dollar amount is convenient to fill out the tax bracket in years I'm not doing Roth conversions.

 

[Knightshade]

I don't care what a pizza costs. I'm just pulling funds out to increase my yearly income.

That... kinda proves my pizza point? You're trading BTC for actual money-- not for goods or services (which is what actual money is for)

Out of interest, how do you see Bitcoin evolving?

Do people just decide it's not worth anything one day? Or a long steady decline?

That's a pretty interesting question.... historically bubbles on assets with little to no actual intrinsic value tend to pop fairly quickly once they do... typically the last 2 stages are profit taking, where the last of the smart money gets out at the end of the euphoria stage, and then panic, where prices drop rapidly. When? who knows- there's that whole markets can stay irrational longer than you can stay solvent thing after all. But fundamentally there's no "there" there.

As to not worth anything- I mean, beanie babies still have SOME intrinsic value today even if they're relatively worthless compared to the bubble... BTC though has 0 intrinsic though so eventually yeah outside of maybe hobbyists wanting to do anything they find personally interesting it'll eventually be worth nothing- since intrinsically it already is, even if people currently keep finding Greater Fools who think otherwise.

Gary Black had a bit about the recent ETF stuff BTW--basically inflows have been underwhelming and more than 2/3rds of it was just flows from a different BTC-related ETF that had higher fees than the new ones.

https://twitter.com/x/status/1748732389864415451

 

[heltok]

What does it mean that Bitcoin's bubble would pop? What $/BTC is the level that we can agree that now Bitcoin's bubble has finally popped? I kept hearing that the bubble would pop when I started promoting btc in 2013 around $10/BTC, the bears were very active around $100 and when it finally popped at $1200 bears were having a great time calling us stupid. Took a while for it to recover from that level, when the bubble popped at $20k the story was supposed to finally be over and when it popped at $69k all the way down $16k this thread got active. If it goes back to the $1-$10k range and stays there, can we really claim that the bubble has popped?

Here is a refresher of the previous bubbles: