Bloomberg Model 3 Tracker

[bhzmark]

An interesting article and good graphs and analysis from Bloomberg:

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

 

[Zaphod]

Well, it's looking like the "S-curve" albeit 6 months or so behind their projections.

 

[Foxhound199]

The question is where are all these cars going if we aren't seeing any activity on the invite tracker?

 

[g-force]

they'll never be able to deliver sold cars at this rate

 

[X Fan]

How soon before the German line is in place in US?

 

[mongo]

A Reddit post has alerted me to this new Bloomberg article. They claim they've created their own M3 tracker, but it feels like a straight copy of the one created by the community. I feel like they just took all the data from there, or copied the bots' logic and added in "VINs reported directly to Bloomberg" (they have one VIN reported to them) to claim this is unique.

We Set Out to Crack Tesla's Biggest Mystery: How Many Model 3s It's Making

Original data sources:
Tesla Model 3 VINs
https://blfire.lima-city.de/
Model 3 VINs (@Model3VINs) | Twitter

 

[SeBsZ]

Telsa -> Tesla.

 

[gregincal]

The question is where are all these cars going if we aren't seeing any activity on the invite tracker?

Probably to earlier invited owners who were going to wait for another config, but now decided to order based on the delays.

 

[Foxhound199]

Probably to earlier invited owners who were going to wait for another config, but now decided to order based on the delays.

I can't imagine that number is so high that it replaces multiple batches of invites. Also, doesn't explain the sizable gap between the last batch of invites and the earnings call.

 

[smak]

Probably to earlier invited owners who were going to wait for another config, but now decided to order based on the delays.

That would be at least 2500 people. We would have seen it reflected here.

 

[eSpiritIV]

The question is where are all these cars going if we aren't seeing any activity on the invite tracker?

Probably exsting owners, maybe Canada!

 

[DarthPierce]

Could be fleet sales as well.

 

[voip-ninja]

Several owners reported that their car was impacted by a recall where an electrical component needed to be replaced. While not likely it is possible that Tesla is now warehousing inventory until re-work can be done on cars since that's probably cheaper than doing the recall at a service center.

 

[SMAlset]

People are getting invites today, us among them. I know people were already listing VINS in the 8000s.

 

[Kipp]

It seems bloomberg is getting a lot of people entering VINS into their database as evident by the yellow dots:

I guess that is due to the popularity of the article (comes up in new stories associated with TSLA, posted to various social media locations) and the ease of entering your VIN (i.e., don't have to have an account on reddit or TMC forums or need to find the proper thread).

Since there is no track-back link, as is present in Tesla Model 3 VINs, some of this data could be suspect. Even the track-back links could be suspect but at least you might be able to question the OP of the VIN in reddit or TMC forums.

 

[bhzmark]

The articles updates with:

Update February 27, 2018: Two of the registered VIN values on method 1 were adjusted to reflect data recorded by Model3VINs. The jump to 8,362 was shifted from 1/2/2018 to 12/28/2017. The jump to 2,136 was adjusted to 2,639 on 10/28/2017.

 

[kwest2]

They also lowered the rate from ~1,050/wk to ~925/wk.

 

[DanL3]

Yes, they are guessing too, but they Guess based on a lot more data than we see. These changes make sense. I expect that they will adjust down again unless we see new VINs registered above the current 11,348 number.

 

[AviP]

It will be really hard to ramp up from 925 to 2500 (270%) in less than 5 weeks. I see another quarterly delay for the SR folks amongst us.

 

[mongo]

It will be really hard to ramp up from 925 to 2500 (270%) in less than 5 weeks. I see another quarterly delay for the SR folks amongst us.

Nah, I've seen lines go from high volume to 0, so 0 to volume is not unreasonable, just need a line that can do it, and enough parts to feed the line.