When I ordered my 60, the it was 66k. Add $5k for D and it was 71k (70k if you got referral). I had to pay for an all glass roof and PUP which is mostly now standard. It seems like Telsa is fine with selling a base S for around $70k -- I wouldn't expect that to change with the 3 in the lineup. I also think the 100D went up by $10k for no good reason and I see that price coming down to create further separation from the P100D.
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But at some point there is no separation, but price. If the car doesn't have noticeably more range, or noticeably more performance, or any exclusive options, why even buy it? Because it says 100 on the back?
They could add a Tesla Model S 100D exclusive, for 200k. It doesn't come with more than a 100D, but it gets an exclusive badge at the back and those 100k surely separate the two...
For 4 months Tesla sold a 90D and a 100D. For 2 of those months they were only separated by $3k. An 85D and a 100D have about 40 miles of range that separates them. That is the same range difference between the 75D and the 90D that existed as a pairing for over a year. Yes the 75D and the 90D had performance differences but I doubt that is what drove buyers to the 90D -- it was simply range and that same range gap will exist between an 85D and a 100D. That is enough for some buyers. The price difference might narrow but I see the 100D coming down and not the base price going up.
I personally think the premium paid for the 100D vs 85D is not worth it for the amount of range you get. I know Elon said nothing greater than 100kwh is coming but I really doubt this to be the case. I don't think they realized how much the 3 is a threat to their $100k luxury sedan, so I think some things have changed for them internally.
The 3 is not a threat at all. I have a family. If I wanted a smaller sedan I'd have waited for the 3. There are lots of people that, when they actually get into a 3, will realize its not a mini-S but rather a wholly different car. There is a reason all car manufacturers have different levels of car. A 3,5,7; C/E/S; A4, A6, A8, etc.
The 3 only has 15 cubic feet of storage space. 15. The S has 56 with seats folded down, 26 without (plus a frunk). Try taking a road trip with toddlers (or worse, older bigger kids!) and halving your storage space. I don't care if it goes 300 miles in a single charge, its going to suck. The S will be fine.
Also my 60D, as I said, was 70k. That's not 100k. No, I could get a 3 and my 60D and still be at 100k. So I don't buy it and clearly neither does Tesla.
And by how much? 10k? If Tesla reduces the price of the 100D, S and X, by 10k, without adding options to capture those lost 10k, they will end up having a couple of hundred million less in profits.
It could be that the 100D goes down, but I also think the 85D will go up, compared to todays 75D.
I was clearly talking about the 100D, hence the reference to the $100k sedan.
The 3 is not THAT much smaller than the S. I can see that if you have a family, the extra space would surely make a difference but overall the 3 is too good of a value proposition for those people who had to stretch to get an S.
The problem is 12X modules would only be a 300V battery which would make the DC charging speed of the new 75 only 75% of the 100 pack. That wouldn't be too popular.
Tesla might keep the 75 as a software limited 85/90 for a while and price the 85/90 higher, or they might go the radical step and lower the price of the 100. That would stimulate sales of the 100s.
The 85D had a rated range of 272 miles and the 100D is 335 miles. The refresh 90D had an advertised range of 294 miles. If they are going to bring out a new 85 or 90, it will actually have more KWh than the old 90, which will give it a range around 300 miles. The new 85/90 will have a range gap with the 100D that is less than 40 miles.
Here are some ranges per Wikipedia:
60D (software limited) - 218 Mi
75D - 259 mi
85D - 272 mi
90D - 294 mi
100D - 335 Mi
It does look like the difference between the new 85/90 and 100 will be about the same as the difference between the 75 and 90. In general you're correct.
MacGreiner
5YJ
One would hope the range upgrade from on the 75 to 85 battery would be more than 13 miles.
Even worse, Tesla originally advertised the 85D at 270 miles range:
Official EPA Figures Reveal Tesla Model S 85D Is New Range King
The range of the current 75D is 259 miles. I know the range of the 90D was bumped up when the refresh came out, I think the 75D got a boost too.
Nobody knows yet. If they are software locked, Tesla will probably have an announcement about it soon.
So after the M3 battery news showing the long range M3 pack is 80kWh, safe to assume the MS 75's are locked 85kWhs?
BTX8 = 400V 85KW battery. So far only EU owners have identified the BTX8/85. I am US and have a BTX5 (75KW 350V) in my spec. I get the car Friday but hopes for a software limited 85 are low for me. Hopes for a fantastic car are high!