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Can a LR Model 3 do Phoenix to Vegas with no Supercharging?

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Currently a 2016.5 Model S owner looking to migrate to a Model 3 for newer Autopilot, etc. I make a lot of trips between Phoenix and Las Vegas, and can make it to Kingman without stopping in Wickenburg but it's really close (generally I'm pulling in at 2% or less battery). Wondering if the Model 3 LR could make it from Phoenix to Las Vegas without stopping? That'd be enough to get me to spring for the LR over the SR+. If the LR can't do it, though, I'll go with the SR+.

Thoughts?
 
Currently a 2016.5 Model S owner looking to migrate to a Model 3 for newer Autopilot, etc. I make a lot of trips between Phoenix and Las Vegas, and can make it to Kingman without stopping in Wickenburg but it's really close (generally I'm pulling in at 2% or less battery). Wondering if the Model 3 LR could make it from Phoenix to Las Vegas without stopping? That'd be enough to get me to spring for the LR over the SR+. If the LR can't do it, though, I'll go with the SR+.

Thoughts?

A new LR RWD with rated 325 miles can theoretically make the 301 mile Phoenix to LV trip, but I personally would not risk getting stranded up in the mountains because I ran out of juice for not recharging at halfway point.

This is like driving an ICE car, but not stopping at the last (and only) gas station, and hoping to make the destination within 1/12 to Empty gas tank on every trip - i'd have serious range anxiety the entire trip.

I drive a LR AWD M3, daily 160 miles round trip and can achieve rated range if I dont go faster than 75 mph, up and down some small mountains, in the summer time on stock 18" aero without cover. I can't get rated mileage driving the same route/way in SoCal winter.

At 20K miles, my LR AWD rated 310 miles degraded to 304 miles fully charged. I have been recharging daily using Wall Connector, rare Supercharging, to 90% - and I do the 160 mile daily commute.

So, the non-stop 301 mile Phoenix to LV trip maybe doable - but prolly not worth the range anxiety to me. This will only get worse when u factor in battery degradation with time.

On another note - I would switch from an S to a new Model 3 in a heartbeat.
 
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It may hypothetically depend on where
in Phoenix you start and where in Vegas you end - it’s that close.

But no, I would not count on reliably being able to cover 300 miles with significant elevation change in a car rated for 325 miles. Particularly with the strong headwinds you can get in that part of AZ.
 
That's the thing, I'm really trying to avoid the Kingman supercharger. It's always at least half full, it's only six stalls, and there's nothing around it that isn't a Carl's Jr. I like that it's right off the highway, but when you get there and two other Teslas are already waiting in line, no good.

My S75 can make it to Kingman if all variables are perfect (I show up with about 1%-2% left, but I make it). And supercharging's free with this one. If the 3LR could make the trip with no stopping it'd be fantastic. If I have to stop and deal with a backlog of cars, though, AND have to pay for the charging, it starts to make less sense. :(

Only other option is to top off in Wickenburg to avoid Kingman, but again I'm paying for it with the 3.
 
Unlike a gasoline car, you can't just throw a 5 gallon can in the trunk and YOLO your way to the very limits of your range and beyond. Just stop for 10 minutes and hit the SC, you'll probably have to go to the bathroom by then anyway.

As mentioned, it's not just a ten minute stop. Kingman has six stalls and out of probably 40 trips, 80% of them were at least half full and probably half as many were totally full with cars waiting. Charging takes ten minutes but waiting at a full charger delivering half capacity can take an hour or more easily... worse for some of the large Vegas conventions like CES, where there was a line out the parking lot in Kingman last year for those six chargers running at half speed.

Anyway, the point was that if the LR can't do this trip without stopping, I don't need the LR. If I'm going to upgrade at that point I might as well get the SR+ and save $10k, which should be able to make it to Kingman as well. $10k buys a lot of Supercharger credit.
 
Elevation changes is another big variable. My daily work commute consist of going uphill to my work and 2500 ft elevation gain. My work is approximately 45 miles one way. However I consume about 60 miles of range uphill. Then another 45 miles of range is consumed on the way home going downhill.

My total commute in actually miles is 90 miles.

That’s why I am so glad I got the LR model 3 given battery degradation and all that.
 
Currently a 2016.5 Model S owner looking to migrate to a Model 3 for newer Autopilot, etc. I make a lot of trips between Phoenix and Las Vegas, and can make it to Kingman without stopping in Wickenburg but it's really close (generally I'm pulling in at 2% or less battery). Wondering if the Model 3 LR could make it from Phoenix to Las Vegas without stopping? That'd be enough to get me to spring for the LR over the SR+. If the LR can't do it, though, I'll go with the SR+.
Thoughts?
Sometimes it's good to be a night owl. Supercharger locations that are often full Saturday afternoon can also be near empty after 10 PM.

Isn't Vegas the town that never sleeps ? :)
 
Just mapped the route. Las Vegas to Phoenix is 302 miles. I bet you it can’t make it given elevation gain. Now Phoenix to Vegas? I checked a better route planner and it says you still got to charge. Arrive at kingman supercharger with 28%, charge for 6 mins to gain 45%. Then arrive to Vegas with 10%.
 
With everything perfect ABRP says a LR RWD can make it to the Henderson SC with 11% from Phoenix. And a splash at Henderson gets you back to Phoenix with about the same. We usually stop at Kingman, with a top-off at Henderson so we don't need to charge in Las Vegas. Or stopping at Wickenburg instead of Kingman works, but I assume you've already rejected that. We've been fine with Kingman, but we're there on weekdays around lunch time.
 
Are you saying that only new LR RWDs got the 310->325 bump? My July 2018 LR RWD never got it and I'm wondering if that's intentional or accidental.

I meant that new, as in fresh from the factory LR RWD batteries, have 325 mile range and has not yet degraded.

The answer to the other part of your post is below....

From Tesla, few months ago:

"We’re also excited to announce that we’re implementing a number of firmware upgrades for both new and existing customers. These upgrades will increase the range of the Long Range Rear-Wheel Drive Model 3 to 325 miles, increase the top speed of Model 3 Performance to 162 mph, and add an average of approximately 5% peak power to all Model 3 vehicles."

Seen here:

$35,000 Tesla Model 3 Available Now
 
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My car gets rated range at 70 mph. I would imagine I would want to go faster on this trip. I would plan a stop at Kingman on the way there and would go straight to Wickenburg on the way back. I would guess 20 minutes at Kingman (on a shared charger) and 10 minutes in wickenburg on the way home.
The SR battery will need to spend more time than a LR at Kingman. You will arrive with a lower SOC and will need to charge to a higher SOC to complete the trip + SR only charges at 100KW... Not to mention getting from Vegas to Wickenburg won't be a problem with a LR but will require a Kingman stop or slow speeds on the way back. LR= one stop each way SR = two stops
 
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I've done this drive a handful of times in my LR RWD. I always hammer it to Vegas though, going about 80-85 from Scottsdale and that gets me to Kingman with about 10-12%. Supercharge for 20 mins then hammer it all the way to LV. I can see how you could theoretically do it in a single charge however that is risky given all of the winds you face in multiple areas of that drive including the long boring straight on US-93 between Kingman and Hoover Dam.