Cancelling my reservation

[daniel]

I totally disagree. Passing and entering freeways on many onramps are both really really painful with 11 second acceleration.

Granted that acceleration is nice. But I drove my Prius for years (still take it to Canada due to the absence of superchargers on the secondary roads to my destinations) and I lived with it just fine. Some of the above sounds like really bad road design more than underpowered cars. And before the Prius, I drove the Civic for fifteen years, and lived with it just fine.

I don't think I'd want to drive on California freeways, no matter what car I was driving. If I had a P100D Model S I'd still be scared to drive on California freeways.

 

[daniel]

I think Musk said at some point that Tesla would stick with $35K cars and above, and leave the lower-priced end of the market to companies like Nissan, that are more suited to that segment. He still wants a 100% electric roadway, and welcomes competition as the best way to get there; witness his release of the patents so other companies could more easily enter the field.

 

[ohmman]

I think Musk said at some point that Tesla would stick with $35K cars and above, and leave the lower-priced end of the market to companies like Nissan, that are more suited to that segment. He still wants a 100% electric roadway, and welcomes competition as the best way to get there; witness his release of the patents so other companies could more easily enter the field.

I think he also postulated that whenever FSD becomes a reality, revenue from the car could pay down the original price, creating a low TCO.

 

[X Fan]

I think you need to check BMW and Mercedes starting prices. The BMW 3 and 4 series start at about $35K , Mercedes CLA coupe starts at $33K, GLA suv at $34K, and C class sedan at just over $40K. Quite a bit lower than $50K.

I believe Elon did mention long ago that they will not make a car the costs less than the 3. Of course things could always change, but don't see it happening, unless some time way in the future.

re: BMW/Mercedes......their 3 series gets to high 40's very quickly when you add Nav, heated seats, etc. At local BMW dealership here in Naples, 50/80 cars are $45K and above with most of the others at $43.xK and feature poor.

 

[N5329K]

Granted that acceleration is nice. But I drove my Prius for years (still take it to Canada due to the absence of superchargers on the secondary roads to my destinations) and I lived with it just fine. Some of the above sounds like really bad road design more than underpowered cars. And before the Prius, I drove the Civic for fifteen years, and lived with it just fine.

I don't think I'd want to drive on California freeways, no matter what car I was driving. If I had a P100D Model S I'd still be scared to drive on California freeways.

I do fine on CA freeways in a 76HP Triumph, because it's extremely light and there's always a gap in traffic. If I lived in a place where that was no longer the case (as some of you seem to) I would take that as a sure sign to get out. Not change cars. Our Prii are perfectly fine on California roads, though it helps to stay out of the passing lane unless actually passing, which is getting as rare as flashing turn signals.
Besides, when you can reach down and almost touch the roadway, 60 MPH in the Triumph feels like 100.
And none of this is really about cancelling reservations, is it?
Robin

 

[Dr. J]

I disagree entirely with your closing statement.

Technically, his closing statement was;

But who wants to live forever?

Discuss amongst yourselves. [Gets popcorn]

 

[daniel]

I think he also postulated that whenever FSD becomes a reality, revenue from the car could pay down the original price, creating a low TCO.

Yeah, I think Musk overstates the case there. For one thing, how many of us want to send our cars out unattended to pick up strangers who might not leave the car as clean as they found it? For another, if every Model 3 FSD owner decides to do this they will swamp the market, driving down the price of rides or severely restricting the number of times your car will have a customer. And lastly, while I'm completely sold on FSD, I don't see it coming soon enough to be useful for cars sold today. (I have not paid for it on my soon-to-arrive Model 3 because I expect the best FSD to use different hardware. I will buy an FSD car designed from the ground up with the mature software in hand, not a car built based on speculation about what that software will need. And I sure as hell ain't taking my hands off the wheel of my EAP Model 3.)

 

[ohmman]

Yeah, I think Musk overstates the case there. For one thing, how many of us want to send our cars out unattended to pick up strangers who might not leave the car as clean as they found it? For another, if every Model 3 FSD owner decides to do this they will swamp the market, driving down the price of rides or severely restricting the number of times your car will have a customer. And lastly, while I'm completely sold on FSD, I don't see it coming soon enough to be useful for cars sold today. (I have not paid for it on my soon-to-arrive Model 3 because I expect the best FSD to use different hardware. I will buy an FSD car designed from the ground up with the mature software in hand, not a car built based on speculation about what that software will need. And I sure as hell ain't taking my hands off the wheel of my EAP Model 3.)

I don’t disagree, just clarifying your original statement. I think “Tesla network” Model 3s will be investment vehicles, not necessarily personal vehicles.

 

[Uptownman]

I know quite a few line-waiters. Some are true believers and would buy a more affordable Tesla no matter what. Quite a few were first-time EV buyers, often coming from an ICE hybrid, who saw this as their chance to leave gasoline behind forever, based on the promise of "the best $35,000 car you can buy": three high school teachers (physics, math and history), a lady who works at the local pharmacy, a guy who works in the backoffice of the Monterey Aquarium.
This group (what one Model S owner sadly described as "poor folks", though they are not) took Tesla's word about that $35k car. They did not overlook it when Tesla added, "and with tax credits your costs will be even lower."
ht now. But I also think that the sooner Tesla finds some way to fulfill its promises...both stated and implied, the better.
Robin

This is the best analysis about the delayed 35k car. Tesla marketing should have focused grouped it. IKnow the financial reasoning now but there were plenty in the industry who questioned that price point at the time who apparently were correct.

 

[daniel]

Technically, his closing statement was;

"But who wants to live forever?"

That was not a closing statement. It was a question, and a rhetorical one at that, referring back to his statement that an underpowered Model 3 would live forever. Some people will say they don't want to live forever, but few people want to die unless they are in terrible pain. I probably would not want to live past the end of the human race, as it would be lonely, but I sure would like to be able to continue hiking and kayaking for a few thousand more years, rather than the decade or so I can hope for in the best case.

 

[daniel]

I agree that if the $35K car is delayed past the end of the full federal tax credit it will be a big blow to line waiters who were counting on getting the car for $27,500. And if it's delayed past the end of the credit entirely it will be an even bigger blow that will probably put the car outside the budget of a number of people who were counting on getting a Tesla at a price they could afford. Tesla is not responsible for the federal tax credit or its ending, but there was an implied promise. Legally and morally Tesla has done nothing wrong, but it could have a public-relations impact. People who waited two years only to be left out in the cold will harbor a lifelong resentment.

I swore I'll never buy a Nissan after I waited a year (? Don't remember exactly) for a Leaf, only to be put off and put off and put off, and lied to, and given a VIN, and then had that VIN taken away from me, and kept in the dark about what was going on, until I finally gave up. They treated me like sh!t, and I said F them, I will never buy a Nissan, no matter what.

A person who waits two years for a Model 3 only to be unable to get one because the $35K version is delayed beyond the federal tax credit could well harbor similar feelings against Tesla forever, and that would be really unfortunate. For the sake of public relations, Tesla should fulfill orders from, at the very least, all Day-1 line-waiters who want the $35K car while the full federal tax credit still applies. And I say that even though I'm not one of them. I ordered on Day 2, but as an owner, and willing to buy the first production version (though it has stuff I don't really want - the premium upgrade features) my car is on the way as I write this.

 

[N5329K]

^This.
At the very least, invite them to configure, even if it means giving them a slightly longer wait in line to take possession. After all, they already waited in line for you.
Robin

 

[Wolverinegeoff]

I don’t disagree, just clarifying your original statement. I think “Tesla network” Model 3s will be investment vehicles, not necessarily personal vehicles.

I think this is true. People buying today are not relying on any income from the vehicle to make their numbers work cost-wise. However, in a couple years, there may be people who can't "afford" a $35-50k car, but the Tesla Network will give them the opportunity to have a nicer car than they could otherwise afford due to the Network helping to subsidize the payments. It'll almost be an alternative model to leasing as far as decreasing the cost of an expensive car goes.

 

[CarlK]

Everything in our value system is relative. People will eventually get use to it when the $27.5K Model 3 is out of the equition and stop thinking $35K is not a good deal. The $35K Model 3 will still be a better value compares to similarly prices cars of the same performance, feature, operating cost and no less important the brand prestige.

 

[SpiceWare]

I think Musk said at some point that Tesla would stick with $35K cars and above, and leave the lower-priced end of the market to companies like Nissan, that are more suited to that segment.

I remember that from when I first started following Tesla, but since then he's said the following at the ‘Future Transport Solutions’ conference in Oslo in April 2016:

Musk elaborates, "I'm super-excited about being able to produce a car that most people can afford. And there will be future cars that are even more affordable down the road, but, with something like the Model 3, it's designed such that roughly half the people will be able to afford the car. Then, with fourth generation and smaller cars, we'll ultimately be in the position where everyone will be able to afford the car."

The video link in the article is broken, this appears to be the same video, the quote's from about 12:12 - 12:50

 

[ABCTG]

Legally and morally Tesla has done nothing wrong, but it could have a public-relations impact. People who waited two years only to be left out in the cold will harbor a lifelong resentment.

Agree about the public relations impact.

It is a real thing.
The title of this thread is; "Cancelling my reservation."
Which means people had planned to purchase a Tesla, but now will not.

Is saying "good riddance" to all those who had good faith and are now resentful the answer?

People who are being delayed now have to digest seeing the launch of a roadster into space, and promises made for a new electric semi truck, and a company that will dig tunnels, but somehow Tesla can't produce the $35K 3.

Maybe due to Investing regulations, Elon's hands are tied for explaining the real reason why the 3 is delayed. Was everybody too scared to tell him the battery module was failing? Why was it not noticed in trials?





I own TSLA stock and have a reservation for a 3

 

[JRP3]

Maybe due to Investing regulations, Elon's hands are tied for explaining the real reason why the 3 is delayed.

The real reason is they can't make them fast enough. The exact details don't really matter and don't change anything.

 

[daniel]

In the video Musk says there will be cheaper cars. He does not explicitly say that Tesla will make them. Or, depending on when the video was made, he might have changed his mind due to conditions and circumstances. He doesn't seem to care what company makes the EVs as long as we get to 100% EVs.

I think this is true. People buying today are not relying on any income from the vehicle to make their numbers work cost-wise. However, in a couple years, there may be people who can't "afford" a $35-50k car, but the Tesla Network will give them the opportunity to have a nicer car than they could otherwise afford due to the Network helping to subsidize the payments. It'll almost be an alternative model to leasing as far as decreasing the cost of an expensive car goes.

I've read that some people have calculated that the pay-back for ride-sharing is hardly worth the wear and tear on the car. Self-driving ride-share cars will be a great thing for customers. They might not be all that profitable for owners. Like groceries or restaurants, the margins could be so slim due to competition that it might be worthwhile only for big companies that can make economies of scale.

I think it unlikely that an ordinary person will be able to use ride-share as a way to significantly reduce his cost of ownership.

And I don't think that Space X has any relevance to The Model 3. Space X shows us that Musk can get things done, but launching Musk's Roadster to the asteroids did not slow down production of the Model 3 or take capital away from Tesla. They are two separate companies that happen to have the same CEO and principal investor.

Does anybody know what percentage of those half a million reservationists have cancelled their reservations? It is inevitable that out of such a large number, some will find their circumstances changed, some will be unable to wait, and some will decide the design of the car does not suit them. I wish them all the best and hope they are able to find an EV that does work for them. But I wonder if anybody knows the numbers?

 

[jmanning]

YES, delays for various reasons has been a frustration for people with this company. In the past it has been vendors that slowed things up, the falcon wing doors caused a longer delay than they projected because of the complications (they are a pretty confident group), and now the rewriting of battery coding so they can be delivered faster has been the slowdown...it isn't like they are TRYING to make these delays. Look at the positives, as all Tesla vehicles are produced they get better and better WITHOUT waiting for a "new model year". They listen to customers and fix things as they see them !!!! They are not perfect but possibly our "I want the latest and greatest yesterday" mindset in our culture has something to do with this....for those cancelling good luck in finding a vehicle that can improve over time rather than depreciate and cost more $$, cost less in fuel, be more fun to drive.

 

[Twiglett]

Sorry, read the first page and skipped to the end.
Is there a TLDR version?