Chances of taking delivery this year?

[Yelobird]

^^ and Tesla still has an order backlog. Some of us just needed the car!

Ordered my MYLR7 in Sep 22. Still says estimated delivery Dec 22. Unless it magically appears overnight it will not happen. SA in Austin called when the first incentives were announced with lots of white 5 seaters. But the 7 seater is deal breaker, and there don't seem to be any around.

I'll take delivery next year. Feel like I'm getting you know what'd. The final price will make take it out of the running for the IRA, won't get any incentives from Tesla and with the 7 seat configuration have to wait for a new batch of cookies!

May miss on the Tesla incentive but there’s always the similar tax incentive. Good luck.

 

[DeeDeeCee]

May miss on the Tesla incentive but there’s always the similar tax incentive. Good luck.

I will wait semi-patiently; guarding my M3 from a covetous significant other!

 

[Yelobird]

I will wait semi-patiently; guarding my M3 from a covetous significant other!

Lol. I simply said it’s a computer technology car and my wife refused to try it. Win, win. Good luck.

 

[acpd]

Lol. They didn’t run out of buyers they simply executed a play to offset (like last year) the mystery tax incentive value that was swaying orders to wait until Jan 1. There are Hundreds of posts pre-discount to show their motivation. Simple strategy really and it worked. They sold every freakin car.

It's not matter of if, simply when will tesla provide incentives. Likely by Feb-March.

They had 9 month wait in June for MY. Even with all the holdouts, their higher end of EDD hasn't moved in 6 months. Wallstreet already knows and that showes in the stock price. Tesla had a good ride for the last 2 years of high demand and good economy so they took advantage and raised prices( can't blame them). Now time to come down to earth. I would guess minimum of $4k to $5k price cut.

 

[barjohn]

Almost all of the model Ys and 3s in inventory are in CA and you have to order an inventory car to get delivery before 1/1/23. Unless you ordered an inventory car you probably won't get delivery this year. With inventory cars, you get the VIN the same day.

 

[tunes85]

Almost all of the model Ys and 3s in inventory are in CA and you have to order an inventory car to get delivery before 1/1/23. Unless you ordered an inventory car you probably won't get delivery this year. With inventory cars, you get the VIN the same day.

yet none of them in CA can be registered outside of CA....

 

[VT_EE]

It's not matter of if, simply when will tesla provide incentives. Likely by Feb-March.

They had 9 month wait in June for MY. Even with all the holdouts, their higher end of EDD hasn't moved in 6 months. Wallstreet already knows and that showes in the stock price. Tesla had a good ride for the last 2 years of high demand and good economy so they took advantage and raised prices( can't blame them). Now time to come down to earth. I would guess minimum of $4k to $5k price cut.

I anticipate a $5k-$10k price cut over the next 12 months to get the prices back down to something reasonable. The Y would need to come down $15k to get back down to previous prices. Tesla will absolutely NOT have a demand problem at these lower prices especially with the tax incentive. I expect the X and S to also drop significantly. Their prices are off the charts compared to back in 2020.

 

[heapmaster]

Yah, this + fine print on what you're getting yourself into would be fair. Tesla can market whatever they want, there's a fine print to protect potential new buyers and a guideline for Sales Advisor since they probably find out about incentives the same time we do, lol..

My SA called me about the new incentives in the afternoon the day before it was on the website...so I think they get an email first.

 

[Kokukenji]

My SA called me about the new incentives in the afternoon the day before it was on the website...so I think they get an email first.

Pretty sure this is one of those your mileage may vary kind of thing. All SA are different. You likely were paired with a good one, haha.

 

[heapmaster]

Pretty sure this is one of those your mileage may vary kind of thing. All SA are different. You likely were paired with a good one, haha.

Ya, im glad I did, hes like your not going to want to pass this deal up and to hurry in his VM.

 

[Kokukenji]

Ya, im glad I did, hes like your not going to want to pass this deal up and to hurry in his VM.

haha, that's very cool. My SA honestly sounded like a robot and if not, copy and pasted scripts to his/her text messages, lolol.

 

[exxxviii]

I anticipate a $5k-$10k price cut over the next 12 months to get the prices back down to something reasonable. The Y would need to come down $15k to get back down to previous prices. Tesla will absolutely NOT have a demand problem at these lower prices especially with the tax incentive. I expect the X and S to also drop significantly. Their prices are off the charts compared to back in 2020.

My random Devil's advocate pontificating...

Tesla has capacity to manufacture about 1M units/year in the United States. I think Hyundai is around 300K but has not ramped up yet. I think the next closest is GM with the Bolt at 70K units/year. (The Lyriq is still minuscule and a non-factor at this point.) At the same time, US demand for EVs is accelerating up. So, nobody has the ability to compete with Tesla at volume. Others might steal a few sales, but barely enough to notice, especially if US demand continues to climb.

So, I wouldn't expect Tesla to lower prices until the market has the ability to commpete on price at volume. That will probably not happen until 2024, when GM and Hyundai/Kia have scaled their manufacturing.

 

[leoita]

My random Devil's advocate pontificating...

Tesla has capacity to manufacture about 1M units/year in the United States. I think Hyundai is around 300K but has not ramped up yet. I think the next closest is GM with the Bolt at 70K units/year. (The Lyriq is still minuscule and a non-factor at this point.) At the same time, US demand for EVs is accelerating up. So, nobody has the ability to compete with Tesla at volume. Others might steal a few sales, but barely enough to notice, especially if US demand continues to climb.

So, I wouldn't expect Tesla to lower prices until the market has the ability to commpete on price at volume. That will probably not happen until 2024, when GM and Hyundai/Kia have scaled their manufacturing.

The GM with their 70K units/year can go sideways IMO
It would take about a year to get the 2023 Prius if you would preorder now
There is no match for Tesla when it comes to manufacturing and delivering. Others don't have the power nor the capacity to do it.

 

[Mike7564]

Lol. They didn’t run out of buyers they simply executed a play to offset (like last year) the mystery tax incentive value that was swaying orders to wait until Jan 1. There are Hundreds of posts pre-discount to show their motivation. Simple strategy really and it worked. They sold every freakin car.

Seems if they had the same “unlimited” number of buyers, the wait would have vaporized from a 6 month wait to 2 days. Production didn’t increase that much.

Will be very curious what waitlist times they quote after Dec 31.

 

[Kokukenji]

My random Devil's advocate pontificating...

Tesla has capacity to manufacture about 1M units/year in the United States. I think Hyundai is around 300K but has not ramped up yet. I think the next closest is GM with the Bolt at 70K units/year. (The Lyriq is still minuscule and a non-factor at this point.) At the same time, US demand for EVs is accelerating up. So, nobody has the ability to compete with Tesla at volume. Others might steal a few sales, but barely enough to notice, especially if US demand continues to climb.

So, I wouldn't expect Tesla to lower prices until the market has the ability to commpete on price at volume. That will probably not happen until 2024, when GM and Hyundai/Kia have scaled their manufacturing.

To add, I don't think Tesla really need to cut their MSRP. They can just continue offering incentives in the case they need to see better sales numbers. Things like free SC, free upgrades, etc. are all within their playbook based on what I've seen these past month...

This is not something that other manu, especially ICE manu are able to do just yet since their business model is all fragmented through all the different dealerships that represents them.

 

[Kairide]

^^ and Tesla still has an order backlog. Some of us just needed the car!

Ordered my MYLR7 in Sep 22. Still says estimated delivery Dec 22. Unless it magically appears overnight it will not happen. SA in Austin called when the first incentives were announced with lots of white 5 seaters. But the 7 seater is deal breaker, and there don't seem to be any around.

I'll take delivery next year. Feel like I'm getting you know what'd. The final price will make take it out of the running for the IRA, won't get any incentives from Tesla and with the 7 seat configuration have to wait for a new batch of cookies!

If you ordered a 7 seater in September it’s too early to be complaining. Most 7 seater wait times have been 8+ months.

 

[ucmndd]

Still ~40+ Model Y and ~40+ Model 3 inventory cars in the Bay Area… I think they’re putting them up as soon as they roll off the line.

 

[DeeDeeCee]

If you ordered a 7 seater in September it’s too early to be complaining. Most 7 seater wait times have been 8+ months.

Just wish they would update the Est. Delivery dates and be realistic about it. Yeah, I've come to expect disappointment from Tesla, so no complaining - just stating the obvious, I guess Tesla's original Dec22 to April23 was much more accurate and will fortunate if I see it before April Fools day!

 

[tunes85]

still estimated delivery Dec 2022...my hope is starting to fade. debating just buying a used 21 with 30-40k miles and saving 10k

 

[leoita]

still estimated delivery Dec 2022...my hope is starting to fade. debating just buying a used 21 with 30-40k miles and saving 10k

I am still refreshing the site from the current new stock
There were a bunch of long range ones, but I want black/black performance. I guess my chances of getting one are slim to none.